As we have seen the bull market of 2021, history has shown there to be a following of a bear market in the next year (2022). What are your thoughts so far and how do you believe it will play out.
I think the bear market is still just starting, btc should now be around 16-22k on average price until 2025.
Your thoughts?
No a crypto winter bear market isn't coming.
What you need to understand is that the big crashes didn't simply happen after post-halving bull runs, they happened because these bull runs led to huge unsustainable blow-off tops. The thing is, that didn't happen this time. Instead, Bitcoin built up for a few months, but then stalled. Instead of a blow off top, which might have taken Bitcoin from $60k to $150k or something, it just went sideways basically (in the $30,000s to $60,000s range) for just about a year now.
So rather than a blow-off top and now a bear market coming, what we've had is just about a year of sideways movement and consolidation with see-sawing positive and negative periods. And the past half year has been a massive accumulation by holders after that initial sell off last Spring. If anything, Bitcoin is leading into another bull market now. Supply of Bitcoin is extremely low after many months of strong accumulation by holders, this is precisely what we see leading into big bull markets. It's the same thing that happened leading up to the bull market of late 2020 / early 2021.
So as soon as the market sentiment turns positive again (and it certainly seems like it is on the cusp of doing this) Bitcoin is going to start tearing upwards again. Right now it is still pretty negative just because so many people THOUGHT a bear market would be coming now so they sold in anticipation of this thing that wasn't going to happen, but the market does appear to have bottomed now. This year we should see the price of Bitcoin far surpass what it reached last year. Over $100k is very likely this year.
The macro cycles of Bitcoin have changed. Get rich quick speculators have abandoned Bitcoin and now ride (and mostly die) on useless meme coins and random alts, along with some promising up and coming projects like various smart contract platforms. Bitcoin buyers now consist of much more wary investors and much less of the FOMO and panic sell get rich quick speculator crowd. This means slower, but, crucially, steady growth. This is why Bitcoin didn't blast off to $150k or $200k last year, and it is also why Bitcoin isn't heading into a year-plus long bear market now. Instead we're seeing gradual growth in waves as Bitcoin adoption continues to gradually take over the world (loooooong way still to go). Hence, a year ago Bitcoin was hitting $40k for the first time and that was a high value, now it's bottoming at $40k and is vastly oversold. Gradual but solid growth over the past year. And as we have seen, this growth will happen in waves of enthusiasm and despair as the price still bounces up and down a lot, just on a shorter time scale and with much less extremes than we saw in past cycles. We've seen two smaller cycles in the past year and Bitcoin is gearing up for the next one. Bitcoin is in great shape right now and 2022 looks very bullish indeed!