Topic: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2023 as the Fed normalizes interest rate policy (Read 746 times)

I definitely think there is a lot of hidden or as yet unconsidered risks for big, big stablecoins to get kicked in the teeth, especially with the dollar gunning already for ATHs vs big currencies: euro, pound, even in Southeast Asia.

Now the last time I saw dollar this strong was in my teens, when I first got online and started earning money. Just a year or two after that, we hit the biggest financial crisis I'd ever seen. Things were really, really bad. People couldn't buy anything in terms of investment and everyone went to buy USD.

I see some sense in saying the same here for retail. People will be lining up to buy those bonds, those who can, or on behalf of. And they'll stop putting money into crypto, gold, etc.

The good news? We went through a huge period of growth on the back of that crisis, gold and stockmarkets went on an unrelenting rally lasting more or less till now. Only, it did take about 7 years after the crisis.

I'm prepared to wait that long for BTC!

Well if we can see at the latest CPI report, the crypto market reacted negatively, as the anticipated fed rate hike numbers is higher that what they are predicted.

But in any case, there are still crypto investors who think that this is bullish in the long run. This is just like what the price hits lows of $3k during the covid-19 announcement. So now we have the inflation monthly report being the most anticipated news coming from the Feds. Not only for crypto but for Nasdaq as well as we have some correlations on it. So if by 2023, the price plunges to $10k, imagine what will it be for the blue chip stocks and other assets. We might be in another year wherein everyone is suffering, prices of basic commodities going up. But we should remain steady in this crypto market, as we are anticipating another bull run in 2024-2025.

Thats the thing about crypto, we do not know whats going to happen. We can make some estimations and hope that it goes on the way we speculate but that doesn't change the fact that we could be very well wrong too. If we are wrong then we are going to lose money, if we are right then we are going to profit. Instead of risking it on the short term like this, I tend to buy more bitcoin because even if 2023 isn't an awesome year (which I believe it will be) it could still very well be awesome in 2024 as well. It does depend on the world markets a bit, but it depends on bitcoin itself a lot as well.

It is difficult to predict accurately that the price of bitcoin will drop to $10k in 2023 as the Fed wants to normalize interest rates. Although everything is still possible in the crypto world. It's better now to use the opportunity to collect more bitcoins when the price drops and sell when the price is high without having to bother thinking about future predictions that will not necessarily happen as predicted by some experts.

But US savings bonds specifically the I bond are paying 9.62%

every us citizen is allowed to buy $10,000 a year.

330 million x 10,000 is 3.3 trillion a year could be purchased.

This is a tremendous attack against all USD  pegged stable coins.

No stable coin is pegged better than the US I bond is pegged.

As for liquidity just buy 10 x 1000 bonds every year the rate are stupid high.

9.62% = stupid high. all usa citizens can buy it.

new rate will be oct 1 and since inflation just came at 8.3 or so the next set of I bonds will be at least 8.4%

Let us look at the calendar. April 1 2022 I bonds popped in at 9.62%

May 9 2022 Terra Luna crashes.

New rate for I bonds is Oct 1 2022. at least 8.3%

what is up next to crash?

BTC?
ETH?
USDT?
USDC?


the unrelenting pressure of 8 and 9 % perfectly pegged I bond will hurt all of crypto bigly.


remember 3.3 trillion a year could go into I Bonds last I looked all of crypto coins grand total is not even 1.5 trillion.


I see this inflation as a way to attack crypto in general.

The only coins that should do well are.

BTC  why pow
LTC   why pow
Doge why pow

there are about 5 or 6 pow coins other than above .

All stable coins are full and complete moron move for usa investors due to the I-bond numbers.

So it looks to me that the USA will crack the whip over all stable coins for at least 12 months from oct 1.

why is that? well I bonds come out at least 8.4 % you buy first month 5x 1000 = 5000
and you buy March 31 5 x 1000  you have  5 of 10 bonds getting that high rate for at least until sept  30.

as the ones you got on March 31 will pay at least 8.4 % for six months

the ones you got on Oct 1 will pay at least 8.4% till April 1 you can cash or hold if rate drops.  but remember you got the other 5 they give 8.4% for six months.

The 8.4% is a guess but it could be over 9 again.

these are going to kill crypto.

and don't think hustler hand sake deals are being made all over since every usa citizen can get them.

op I agree with you.  whether we go to 7k or 8 k or 11k for 12k down is were we are going.


all due to stable coins getting crushed from April 1 2022 to at least Oct 1 2023.

those numbers are allready set for USA I bonds   so 3.3 trill + 3.3 trillion = 6.6 trillion of bonds could be sold .

from April 1 2022 to march 31 2023 and the effects can last 6 months after it.

ugg.

but my silver lining is I have I bonds as does my wife.

We are not time travelers who can know what will happen in the future, so don't be too afraid of the prediction that Bitcoin will fall to the price of $10k.
Because not necessarily in 2023 the price of Bitcoin will drop to the price of $ 10k, what if the opposite happens in 2023 the Bitcoin price can recover
and return to the ATH price. Sometimes thinking about negativity only prevents us from going any further, therefore it is very important not to trust
the opinions of others who are not necessarily accurate. We have to trust the results of our own research and analysis.

But let's assume it's true that Bitcoin has dropped to a price of $10k, that doesn't mean we should panic. Because we've had bad things before in 2008,
so if something bad happens in 2023 we should already know what to do. In the end, people who believe in the future of Bitcoin, will look positively if
the Bitcoin price falls, making it a great time to buy Bitcoin whenever the price drops. If we are not sure about the future of Bitcoin, then as you said
we will be weak hands that will never make big profits from Bitcoin. Because to be able to generate large profits from Bitcoin we must be patient
holding Bitcoin in the long term.

Stated central bank rates are substantially different to effective rates including the rate of inflation.     If inflation is 10% and interest rates are 5% you cannot say the FED is operating strict currency control in effect, we are still seeing a large amount of excess currency forcing up prices.   In a system with fractional reserves the line between policy and market effect is not directly connected or exactly under their control, it takes a while for policy to propagate.

I believe there is no need to worry about what the article stated.  It is pure speculation because it is a year ahead of us, besides it only tackles news that will downgrade the price of Bitcoin.  What about the projects and companies that will adopt Bitcoin?  The country that will follow El Salvador's examples?  There are lots of things that may happen in a span of 1 year, that may either help the plunge of Bitcoin price or counteract the negative effect of the stated reason written in the article stated by OP.

Bitcoin @ $10k is indeed possible but it is equally possible that Bitcoin may reach $100k by the end of 2023 since this value is both under the radar of speculation.

Well, no one can really tell what will be the future price of bitcoin. If it drops to $10k in the future, then maybe we can’t do nothing about it. But isn’t it’s another good opportunity to buy and hold? Strong hands will always see and realize this, while weak hands tend to be more panic and develop fears. The reason why weak hands never end up long term winners.

I don't think so but a lot of us only buy btc because they treat it as an asset to make money but the real use case for btc is when you use it as a currency for purchasing or for sending money anywhere in the world.

These type of people will buy btc whatever its value because they will use it immediately but for those who are investors and traders, they will wait first when btc dips because it's more wiser to buy this way. When btc drops down to 10k then it's surely a big attraction for them however many people are expecting the price will get better soon but I agree with that because the bear run is getting longer and the end for this must be close already.

I think this is not only a possibility, but a likelihood.  I'd love to say that the recent drop to $18K was the low for the cycle, but the volume just doesn't support that.  I want to see a massive volume spike as we touch lows in order to confirm it.  We didn't see that.  If you're trying to time the market, it might be best to wait a while longer.  If you're dollar cost averaging in with regular buys, now is definitely the time to be stacking through the consolidation phase.

The fed decisions can only have an effect within the United States, and Bitcoin is a global alternative currency and in as much as the United States, is among the top countries in Bitcoin adoption the fed decision may not be able to force the price of Bitcoin down to $10,000 as you postulated. I feel that Bitcoin have gone beyond the price of 10k and we may not see such price again in history even though it i possible for Bitcoin to drop below that price but the chances of that happening is slim and Bitcoin have many benchmarks to resist 10k price shortly with or without fed decisions.

Usage is what makes people buy sell & hold BTC ultimately, 10k only has attraction when people are confident of a gain.   Ironically the less BTC costs the greater the losses in peoples speculative interest in a mainstream consideration anyhow, it is ironic but a repeated dynamic.


FED policy is always going to lag inflation, its even stated as their main intent.   They want 2% but in the end I think single digits is a barn door target where they end up landing, the tools they keep referring to are quite blunt.    A very large fear for them is deflation, this is where bills cannot be paid vs inflation losses are less apparent and far less politically damaging.   Normalizes, if normal is constant currency decay then sure thats the norm.

Yes, but isn't it true as well that despite that fact that there is the possibility that it can go as low as $10k, people will find that price very attractive to buy and maybe fill their wallets again with cheap bitcoin?

And if that is the circumstances that we will see the price recovering very fast as well. Just like when it goes down to $3k during the height of the pandemic scare. We will always going to bounce back, if there is something that we have learn from a massive downward spiral of prices in the past.

While I do not think that we have to worry too much about the price of bitcoin going that low we cannot really discard the possibility of this happening if some sort of massive panic were to happen once again, so like always we need to be ready for whatever the market throw at us because the moment we think that something is impossible to happen then that is the moment in which we will fail to prepare for those circumstances and if they happen we will not know what to do just when we need it the most.

FED can do whatever they want, the fact that the price dropped last time they increased the rate was a factor by how people didn't know where to put their money during inflation and their money lost value. This time around it would be high again, but people will start to realize inflation is higher than the rate so they need to reinvest that money again to some place, won't be easy and won't be quick but it will not hurt it as much as people think.

10K is long gone, and it will not come back even if you want it to, I would love to have bitcoin at those prices because it means I would be able to buy even more but I know that it won't happen and that upsets me a bit but I am hopeful about the future at least.

Not really. First of all if they continue cutting rates and crash the US stock market they will destroy the country and go into recession. They can't do that and they know it. They want to scare people from investing and make them move into saving fiat money by increasing the price of the USD, but they know it well that if they overcorrect they'll put the economy in a downward spiral.

I also think that there's only a certain number of US companies in Bitcoin that can go bankrupt from this. Bitcoin is not only based on leveraged companies and not only on US companies. Whoever was at risk mostly sold by now.

People are looking for a point, or a price they are trying to predict. The next 12 months will be turbulent, we can only guess what will happen. No one can see the future and something could happen that we do not expect. The hard financial situation go until the end of 2023, rather longer. People's acceptance of bitcoin has to go up, if it doesn't you can see it in the price of bitcoin. I see it simple.

Nothings changed in terms of knowledge. Back ten years ago we had more technical users because Bitcoin wasn't as well known, and wasn't as easy as it's today to access. The more accessible Bitcoin becomes the more newer non technical users join the fun. However, that isn't a bad thing. We want to make Bitcoin as simple as possible that mass adoption would be possible if we could ever get the masses to join. We don't want a complex currency which can only be used by those with technical knowledge.

Although, you'll find even veteran users with a ton of knowledge fall for speculation, that's just human nature. We're literally pattern recognising machines, and even when there isn't really a pattern we establish one. So, of course we'll speculate, and compare to the past. That's just human nature, and that ain't going to change.

It would be a fair price though but that seems too deep IMO but who knows? Last time BTC 's lowest was in $3000 so I think it's a fair price to accumulate more hence we won't be worrying that the price may be too much to buy but how true it could happen next year?

And $17k is still a fair price though we still have a lot of time to wait and see whether the price would plummet to $10k or just stay on the $17k or maybe $20k?