Topic: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2023 as the Fed normalizes interest rate policy - page 2. (Read 736 times)

Based on the current state of Bitcoin, we can say that Bitcoin can go further down in 2023.Many thought Bitcoin would never go below $20,000. But by removing all human thought and analysis, Bitcoin only came in at $17,000.$10k isn't too far off from what it's currently priced at. But let's see what happens.This price may not be of this season and Bitcoin market may go higher from here.But none of you lose patience one day at least Bitcoin will break its highest price record and set a new record.

$10k is not something that we should be worried of because eventually, bitcoin price will always have chances to drop that low, it may not be happening today but it would still be possible in the next bear season. The best thing to do is just be ready on it and prepare our funds so we can always maximize investing in bitcoin at its cheapest price possible.

Most of us are not seeing it that bitcoin will drop its price further like $10k, but knowing bitcoin, everything happens quickly that it will always surprised us all the time. Though some people fear on it particularly for those newbies investors who have bought bitcoin at a higher price, but isn’t it more favorable on our part if bitcoin and drops too low and give us biggest opportunity to buy again and hold. Not everyone favors on that but I think seeing bitcoin drops to $10k is very much possible.

i have took some time to look into possible reasons some feel that $10k is even an option/possibility as its a number below my opinion of a store of value level of $15k based on efficient recent gen asics.

and it turns out that some believe that the bitcoin network is mining not on efficient asics but on old outdated asics where the hardware has now got its ROI and so its just pure electric costs being considered as the only mining costs(a bit narrow minded but lets go with it)..

the S9(2017 gen) even at just electric only, is not cheaper than store of value even at low electric cost($20k/btc at 4cent electric)
the s17 however(2019 gen) would have reached its hardware ROI this year(just). and would have a lower than $15k(SoV) cost IF you only consider electric
($9k/btc at 4cent electric)

however most mining farms plan well ahead to stay ahead. having bought the latest gen(planning ahead) which are for 25% more electric 200% more hashpower. thus efficient to bring in more coin per day(the purpose of mining obviously*)
they would sell the s17 hardware to altcoiners. to then offset some initial electric bill costs of the next quarter of running the new asics(cashflow upfront to not need to sell coin to create cashflow)

which is a business model they have followed for years to stay efficient and ahead of the mining competition.

they are not mining to instantly sell coin to pay electric. they mine to accumulate coin. so the decisions are about hashing speed efficiency per physical unit space** of a warehouse to get as much coin as they can per day

(lets use 5asics instead of 5000 asics for math ease)
EG imagine you pay a quarterly electric bill allowing for ~13kw

instead of say 5 s17 asics at 5x55thash(275thash) using 5x 2.5kw(12.5kw)
they can replace that with s19 3x110thash(330thash) using 3x3.25(9.75kw)
saving space and electric (be in credit next quarter thus pay less)
and sell the old asics to have cashflow thus not touch any btc. whilst also increasing their efficiency aka more hash=more coin reward share

the other aspect is they wont want to rush to soon to just have 4xs19(13kw) as that is too much hashpower too fast too soon, which ends up with too fast block solving which causes difficulty to jump too fast thus shooting self in the foot.

so instead they have room** and spare electric capacity to grow in future months further by another 33%(or use as credit of next bill) with ease,

and..when they think its the right time to put the 4th asic on the shelf and turn it on. where it wont raise difficulty to much, they have the room, capacity and ability
..
*my own math of the $15k SoV already accounted for the transitions of each gen asic and the timing of where i see when the transitions occur to have the next gen asics take over as the dominant majority miners running(follow the difficulty changes~next gen delivery release dates) to then calculate the mining costs based on the this.


that said.
there are hobby miners that just run their asics to the death after hardware ROI. but those hobby miners after hardware ROI are not part of the asic farms of the most efficient hashpower bottomline electric cost SoV competition
they are the residential miners with higher electric/limited electric which are above the lowest costs

**asic farms look at hashrate per rackspace as a efficiency measure

You are right this set of influencers have deceived many people into believing such crab in the past, I still remember in the last few years back! say a year or two ago bitcoin holder Were less knowledgeable and are always on the lookout for news about Bitcoin market speculations from social media and they easily get misled by those they belief to have knowledge or influence on Bitcoin price/market. until they discovered that those speculators have always been wrong and their are only out to mislead gullible Bitcoin investors into panic action. But gone are those days were bitcoin holders lack basic knowledge on how Bitcoin work and how unpredictable the price of Bitcoin is, but now people are becoming more informed about Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency space so now they can make better decisions instead relying on random statement from a social media influencer.

Besides that, there will be a lot of people who are desperate to see the price of bitcoin reach $10k, and they will quickly sell their bitcoins when the price starts to drop to a low price. This is common, especially when the price is not strong enough to break higher and continues to decline sharply. That's where people will lose hope in bitcoin, while others who see it as an opportunity will use it to buy as many bitcoins as possible. After that sharp decline, the price of bitcoin will stabilize for a while, and then it will move up, and even the price can go up quickly, and people will not expect it.

We are far to see the halving so if there's more bad news which contribute to rise up the fear of investors for sure we will see this figure to come up. And while this scenario didn't happen yet we need to prepare for this and have another plan like starting to secure our earnings while there is since once this $10k figures will happen we can buy and grab the chance to gain when recovery time will happen.

you are right, we are just waiting for the time when btc will continue to go down, and I'm sure that time will surely come but who knows when,
a little thought if btc reaches 10k$ there will definitely be a possibility of it going back down, right, I don't think this is what anyone wants, FUD after FUD is always circulating and makes the value of btc continue to decline in how many % per FUD spread

I am not a good TA person but sometimes I like to look at chats to see in the coming future how they really turn out in relation to other price speculations.

Looking at the Bitcoin daily price chat, it does look like a Head and Shoulder pattern to me and like the support has been broken and if we did take the range from top to point of breaking down, it does seem that the $10k price is inevitable, I guess time will tell.

Europe will likely look elsewhere for their energy, because I don't think they have the infrastructure in place currently, and therefore the US might actually benefit from this whole scenario. US has the infrastructure, and the means of shipping it over long distance. So, I imagine a lot of European countries will start building the infrastructure required to become self reliant, but that'll take a good couple of years at full swing, so the US could well see a small boom from this.

Bitcoin isn't run by the US though, despite the US centric news everywhere, so Bitcoin isn't likely to benefit from it. Bitcoin will likely feel the effect of the boom for the US, and the downside of the energy crisis in Europe.

We can't say it's bounced back after the pandemic, since we're still in a pandemic, and therefore the effects have been compounded on each other. The effects usually don't play out until later down the line for these sort of things. So, I definitely wouldn't go as far to say that we've rebounded back after the pandemic. Technically, we're still in one.

The energy crisis which is looming is only for Europe although even US pays higher gas prices because of Russia the true crisis is for Europe.In such scenario we have seen Bitcoin perform better than expected like during the pandemic.The interest rate has no direct connection to the price of Bitcoin so we cannot predict the bottom although with how things are looking now we can expect the price of Bitcoin to be bearish for the short term while for the long term I know it will bounce back after we are deep in the energy crisis and inflation one.It did so on the pandemic so why it should not do so at that time?

I couldn't agree with you. Because we would be wrong to predict the Bitcoin downfall you are talking about. The Fed you are talking about is limited to the US only and is only practiced by them but Bitcoin is a global coin. If this Fed prevails in most countries then we can see the possibility of Bitcoin going down. So it becomes difficult for us to know the future of Bitcoin in advance.In my opinion Bitcoin will come back stronger and it will reach the highest level. Hopefully all goes well Bitcoin could hit $100,000 between 2023 and 24. Now we just have to wait and see where Bitcoin goes, there is nothing else we can do. Don't scare people by just making predictions.

The Fed only cuts interest rates when they think inflation is under control, I don't think the Fed will be lenient or stop until inflation does not cool down soon.
They have been very tough on the recent rate hikes, if they don't bring down inflation this will hurt their reputation and they think it will be even worse than Americans will be hurt like how.
The market will still fluctuate in an unstable direction, Bitcoin drop to 10k is possible but for me it's not too high, 15k is the last bottom of this bear season.

However, if it happens in the long run, I guess there’s no reason to fear it because it could be another opportunity to buy and hold. Although seems not possible to drop that far, but knowing bitcoin, everything is possible in it. As long as you never sell in loss and just continue to buy and hold, then maybe reaching $10k will not be a problem anymore, maybe for newbies it will.

Where did you hear it from? I think this is just the next Fuds being spread to drag the market down. It is true that we are in the midst of an energy crisis caused by war, but I see European countries as the most affected countries, serious power shortages are also taking place in some EU countries. But for many other countries, it's not so serious, not to the point of having to stop mining operations. Many countries use hydroelectricity, nuclear power, and wind power ... in most of these countries electricity prices do not increase too much.

Just because someone mentioned it doesn't mean that'll happen. If that was the case, we would have already seen Bitcoin at $100.000, something many claimed as a possibility in 2021. The world doesn't revolve around USA alone, $10.000 sounds too exaggerated, but possible nonetheless, not because of FED, but due to the ongoing recession and current macroeconomic environment going from bad to worse.

Honestly, while it would suck to see my Bitcoin worth half of what it is now, it'd be one of a kind opportunity to acquire more.

I don't think it will be a catastrophe if Bitcoin goes down to $10k, as I am sure it will recover from it. Hopefully, though, it won't come to it, as Bitcoin is already very low compared to the ATH point. Maybe US won't be as influential on the global Bitcoin market. Or maybe, before the supply's reduced, people will pour the money they have into Bitcoin, finally realizing that, unlike fiat, it doesn't suffer from inflation. Also, people in the US aren't as poor as to choose between basic needs and investments. Some are, of course, but it's also #1 economy in the world, and there are plenty of rich people who might be looking for investments that are less dependent on the global economy. Just recall the news of Covid stimulus checks being invested into Bitcoin, I bet many didn't see that coming and assumed that money would be spent directly on basic needs. It's a different thing, of course, and in fact the opposite of restrictive monetary policies, but I'm just saying that we shouldn't underestimate investing potential of people in the economy that's entering a recession.

For about 6 months BTC failed to be the hedge against inflation. This could extend a bit longer since the prophesized impending war still is coming as they are still preparing for it. The powerful countries are still showing off thier strengths and this is not a FUD for they intend to prolong it while FED also is disturbing the markets. Canada's banks are now capping crypto retailers of exposure to crypto. I think it will not just be in America but many countries will follow. With the energy crisis, there are already rumors the  about Bitcoin mining ban as well.

The ones who can afford are in the most advantagous position when the price plummets to $10k.

And we better follow the steps taken by the company to add more bitcoins as we can so that we can also benefit later. The current situation has allowed us to buy it and we may find it difficult to see the current price in the future. So take your time to analyze and start buying step by step and hold it until the price start increase again.

I don't care much about FUD but with the current world economic picture, bitcoin is still likely to fall more. While bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation, but it is also a risky investment so short-term price drops are normal. Given the Fed's current hawkish policy, it's no surprise that non-USD store assets are struggling. But in the long run, bitcoin will definitely rise in price and outpace other assets like USD or gold, so whether this is true news or FUD cannot affect the future of bitcoin.