Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2023 as the Fed normalizes interest rate policy - page 3.

mindrust

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Quote from: Jiovanni on September 02, 2022, 12:03:42 PM

Bitcoin could plummet 76% from current levels to $10,000 by 2023 as the cryptocurrency faces three macro headwinds that have an influence on its price, according to a note from Stifel's Barry Bannister.

Bannister highlighted global money supply, the 10-Year US Treasury yield, and the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 that have influence over the price of bitcoin. Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

"In 2022, we see bitcoin in a broad trading range bounded by year-to-date intra-day levels with greater downside risk in 2023 if the Fed continues to normalize policy in a 'standard' two-year tightening cycle," Bannister explained.

s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-10000-2023-3-macro-headwinds-interest-rates-2022-2%3famp]https://www.[Suspicious link removed]s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-10000-2023-3-macro-headwinds-interest-rates-2022-2%3famp

Totally possible. It is because anything is possible with crypto. If the article was saying $1000 instead of $10000, I would still believe it. The current view is pretty bearish for crypto. The thing is, crypto isn't the only asset going down, stocks are going down too. Most people in the US have their retirement funds in the stock market. If the markets go down even more, that would hurt lots of elderly people that depend on the markets. At some point the FED will have to lower the interest rates again.

casinotester0001

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This could be another reason:

Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on September 04, 2022, 02:17:38 AM

Quote from: larry_vw_1955 on September 03, 2022, 06:22:26 PM

I just don't think the US government will allow it to go on forever though. Not for US citizens anyway.

I agree, and the mandatory question right at the top of Form 1040 is just the beginning. No doubt the government will want full self-reporting of every wallet address you control in the future. But the fact remains - if you fail to comply with fiat regulations, then the government can take your fiat out your bank accounts with ease. If you fail to comply with bitcoin regulations, the government can't take anything unless you hand it over to them.

hugeblack

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I have read somewhere that we can return to 11,000 levels, and although the price of bitcoin will seem cheap at that price, the economic conditions tell us that more is coming if there is no development with energy crisis and supply chains.

I think the Federal Bank will be more guided, but are they ready to go away in this policy? Generally, there is no direct connection between the price and the federal policies, but it remains influential.

Fortify

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Quote from: Jiovanni on September 02, 2022, 12:03:42 PM

Bitcoin could plummet 76% from current levels to $10,000 by 2023 as the cryptocurrency faces three macro headwinds that have an influence on its price, according to a note from Stifel's Barry Bannister.

Bannister highlighted global money supply, the 10-Year US Treasury yield, and the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 that have influence over the price of bitcoin. Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

"In 2022, we see bitcoin in a broad trading range bounded by year-to-date intra-day levels with greater downside risk in 2023 if the Fed continues to normalize policy in a 'standard' two-year tightening cycle," Bannister explained.

s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-10000-2023-3-macro-headwinds-interest-rates-2022-2%3famp]https://www.[Suspicious link removed]s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-10000-2023-3-macro-headwinds-interest-rates-2022-2%3famp

Well, it would be more like plummeting 50% from current levels if it were to go from $20k to $10k? As we see, Bitcoin has been heavily affected by the flow of cheap money stopping around the world and as rates go up, these sort of assets look set to fall further as people would rather have more stable cash, commodities or shares. We have barely seen a dent in the stock market yet, with which Bitcoin does have some correlation, and it's likely to fall at least 10-20% if not more over the span of the next year. For many people the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general has worn off, it is no longer as desirable because it dropped so far so fast.

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Quote from: piebeyb on September 02, 2022, 01:29:21 PM

somehow I always think $10k is an unattractive price to touch, I know maybe the effect of all of this has an impact on the bitcoin price but I'm sure it won't hit the $10k price, trust me it won't touch it

I hope you are right. but how are you so sure about that? everything is possible seeing how the condition and situation going on right now. and how much bitcoin is in pressure.

Quote from: 2stout on September 03, 2022, 01:07:04 AM

Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 by 2023 is possibly but I wouldn't bet on it, too much support seems in place for it to go this low. Sounds like more FUD by institutions to increase their holdings by shaking down and out weak hands and panic sellers.

it is 100% a fud. but lets hope this bud doesn't trigger a panic sell and make this actually true. Bitcoin dropping to $10k would be a disaster for crypto market. and a lot of new investors and adoptor will loose their faith on bitcoin.

Leviathan.007

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There is no way to predict what will happen even in a few years and what we know from the market and how the price reacts is just based on what we have seen in the past, but the price that you suggested 10,000 USD is a bit far for bitcoin, especially when we see more stability in the market, but regardless of how the price reacts to the Fed, and even if the price does fall to 10K, there will still be buyers who wait for bitcoin at this price level while they place buy orders. They will surely have a much better hand to hold for a higher price even if that happens and the price falls to 10K.

pealr12

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I thought 10k price was suppose to be seen in 2022 now it has been shifted to 2023!
So how does fed normalising interest rate cause such a huge dump on btc? Does that mean all btc holders will immediately start selling simply because the interest rate has been normalised?
It doesn't make sense to me but we shall see how it all plays out.

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Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on September 02, 2022, 03:08:53 PM

Quote from: Jiovanni on September 02, 2022, 12:03:42 PM

Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

The interest rate hike is supposed to be a catalyst through which bitcoin will gain much more value and not the other way round.

And besides, I think Bitcoin dropping to $10,000(if this is at all possible) is a giveaway opportunity for people to buy more at a cheaper rate,
1 bitcoin is also 1 bitcoin when we remove the dollar value it's measured by, I am patiently waiting for that time in the future when we will not have to compare measure bitcoin in dollars anymore.

You are right, 1BTC=1BTC no matter what the price may be. But we should also note the fact that even though an interest rate hike is an advantage to Bitcoin to the US dollars exchange rate the positive effect will come in the long run and if the fed decision is made it may give Bitcoin a short-term pullback in price, but I don't think we will see Bitcoin dipping down to 10k even though many are waiting and expecting that price to happen so that they can fill their bag with more Bitcoin at a cheaper rate. This speculation has no data to back it up that we will see a 10k price in 2023. So let us just enjoy the moment and give Bitcoin some time to develop and grow with adoption and we should focus less on speculations.

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Quote from: Bitstar_coin on September 03, 2022, 12:27:16 PM

I guess we need to get to 2023 first to find out, I have read different versions of how low btc could drop that I don't take them too serious anymore except waiting to see any of it actually hit the predicted price.
Btc could go high, go low or stay within same price in 2023 who knows.

easiest thing is to do if not interested in the finer details of this years measures or predictions or fundementals
take the highest price bitcoin ever achieved
$70k
divide it by 3 (23.3k)
colour code if for cheapness..
0-$24 $24- $47 $47-$70
if the price is in the green odds are your good to buy with lower risk compared to the red zone

Bitstar_coin

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I guess we need to get to 2023 first to find out, I have read different versions of how low btc could drop that I don't take them too serious anymore except waiting to see any of it actually hit the predicted price.
Btc could go high, go low or stay within same price in 2023 who knows.

thecodebear

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Seems very unlikely. Probably the $17.5k bottom in June was the bottom. If things get a lot worse economically then yes it could drop lower, but probably not near $10k. Bitcoin was getting stronger until people realized the Fed was going to keep raising interest rates for a while (which doesn't actually affect Bitcoin in the slightest, the way it affects companies and their stocks, but people don't understand that Bitcoin is different from a stock so they sell it along with their stocks lol).

Basically, if the Fed doesn't crush the US economy with a bunch more large interest rate raises, then Bitcoin ain't going anywhere near $10k. Even if the Fed does this, it may just keep Bitcoin at/under $20k whereas Bitcoin otherwise was looking ready to move back to $30k's this Fall.

ingiltere

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Why would Bitcoin drop more? It should be the exact opposite. Governments still print money like there is no tomorrow, inflation is at all time high in most countries, even today's 1$ is lower than yesterday's 1$. Why should Bitcoin go down? It should go up instead. I don't buy these FUD news. I don't think anybody who has a couple of years experience would buy it either.
Even today's prices are very low for Bitcoin. I wouldn't wait for 17-18k to buy back, I already bought again and 2-3k$ difference is not much important when you look at the bigger picture. Bring more FUD, it's okay, we get used to it. But if you make FUD, next time try to be more convincing. At least try to give a logical explanation.

franky1

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Quote from: NotATether on September 03, 2022, 04:17:59 AM

Quote from: franky1 on September 03, 2022, 04:07:20 AM

i feel the topic creator is a "lagger" someone not wanting to buy just yet.. thinks he missed the $17k bottom for q1-q3 of 2022, and hopes for another chance.. and wants to try a "dump and pump" (opposite of pump and dump)

If that's true then it's very nonsensical, given that we are around $20K right now and I don't see why anybody would wait for the sake of a few less thousands of bucks.

its those that "miss the low" that can never see that the window is
| SOV || market potential window (shortterm) |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 15 ^ 30 45 60 75 90

breaking the $15k wall is no easy task. and yet they cant see the $15k-$90k window where $20k is still super cheap

all they can see is all that missed opportunity of the past of:
2010 10cent, 2012 $6, 2015 $400, etc

..
heck i have hoard from 2012 days. yet even i was happy at $30k this year to buy and again at $20k
i have no NEED to buy more. but while the price is in green. i will

..
with electric prices increasing which increase manufacturing costs too that window is more likely to rise to allow a window opportunity above $100k. more so then fall to $10k at the other end

the window amounts need to be open up to even let the price(inside the window) to even move, wiggle, spike or dip to reach amounts inside the window

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I want to say it's all priced in. Been seeing for months now the numbers get even worse than the market fears, and yet Bitcoin's been quite steadfast in resisting further falls -- to the point even worse-than-expected macro data actually results in a bounce up.

On the other hand, there are still a lot of bets riding against the expected ebb of global economy so these bets losing or winding down could yet result in a domino effect, flushing out the last of the risk-heavy bettors, so yeah, $10k isn't an unreasonable bottom over the next 12 months.

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I think this one-eyed interpretation from some of the so-called financial experts are becoming more and more predictable. The Bitcoin price are not just determined by the large first world economies. We can have several small countries accepting Bitcoin as a currency and the price might explode.

Bitcoin has gone down to $3000+ and recovered to a all-time-high of $60 000+ ....so we are not shivering in our pants with predictions like this. Let's look at the global impact of all factors and not just the influences of some of the giants from the first world countries. Tongue

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Quote from: 2stout on September 03, 2022, 01:07:04 AM

Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 by 2023 is possibly but I wouldn't bet on it, too much support seems in place for it to go this low. Sounds like more FUD by institutions to increase their holdings by shaking down and out weak hands and panic sellers.

Yes that's absolutely what I think also, the rumours of Mt Gox might be fueled by institutional investors trying to buy bitcoin at cheaper rate, one of the benefactor of Mt Gox debunk the news that they will be receiving bitcoin soon, it was stated that Gox would release its bitcoin last month August, we are now in September and yet we have not see any sign of the release, bitcoin price plunged after all those news, either new low or not we will see how it goes before the end of the year

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: pieppiep on September 03, 2022, 04:57:23 AM

Quote from: 2stout on September 03, 2022, 01:07:04 AM

Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 by 2023 is possibly but I wouldn't bet on it, too much support seems in place for it to go this low. Sounds like more FUD by institutions to increase their holdings by shaking down and out weak hands and panic sellers.

If the price drops to $10,000, it will be a blessing for those of us who want to have more bitcoins because we can buy them at such a low price that we are just waiting for the price to rise again. The important thing is, if that moment really comes, you must prepare your money to buy it so you don't miss buying it at a low price. But if it did arrive, many people would panic because they weren't prepared for the price drop.

And also sure, this time will be the best time for some companies that will start to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet but on the other side, there will be some companies that will have a tough situation because some of their entries or price of Bitcoin they bought will be the underwater situation.

pieppiep

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Quote from: 2stout on September 03, 2022, 01:07:04 AM

Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 by 2023 is possibly but I wouldn't bet on it, too much support seems in place for it to go this low. Sounds like more FUD by institutions to increase their holdings by shaking down and out weak hands and panic sellers.

If the price drops to $10,000, it will be a blessing for those of us who want to have more bitcoins because we can buy them at such a low price that we are just waiting for the price to rise again. The important thing is, if that moment really comes, you must prepare your money to buy it so you don't miss buying it at a low price. But if it did arrive, many people would panic because they weren't prepared for the price drop.

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on September 03, 2022, 12:25:31 AM

It's funny you should say that because it does have an effect. The recession is largely caused by monetary policy to combat inflation. What the Fed and other central banks are doing now is reducing the money available. With less money available, people have less money in general, and with less money in general, if they have to choose between spending less money to invest or buying bitcoin, and meeting their basic needs, they choose the latter. In more serious cases of needing money, people sell what they have of value, such as bitcoin, gold, shares or whatever, to cover their needs, as you said.

So in reality the Fed's policy does affect the price of bitcoin because it is largely responsible for the recession.

Yeah, I would agree with most of that. The recession is going to be the biggest contributor to the downward fall of Bitcoin. However, that fall isn't exclusive to Bitcoin. Businesses, stocks or anything not deemed essential to live will go down. They'll start recovering once people are handling their money better or we're coping with the recession a little more, since their buying power will increase, and therefore they'll have money for something else other than the bare essentials.

However, Bitcoin does differ slightly due to its deflationary, and a currency. So, people might take the risk because they're sick, and tired of being caught up in a recession every couple of years. Obviously, that's not including those that can't afford to live, but those that are probably described as middle class.

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Quote from: coolcoinz on September 02, 2022, 04:58:41 PM

Why 10k? That would have to completely nullify what chart analysts were tracing for the last 10 years. No tech adoption curve, no regression curves, no 200 week ma lows, no lengthening cycles, and so on. In 2023 we'll be just a few months before the next halving and you expect the price to literally halve as well?

I don't feel like the US FED can keep tightening for another year. If they do they will crash the stock market and start a recession, which means unemployment and bankruptcies and this means less taxes paid. They can't do it.

With the recent Fed meeting, it seems that they are being very tough on their decision, they think it will even cause pain for the US economy and the world economy. Their only goal is to do everything to bring the inflation rate to 2%, commodity prices will fall, that is the only goal they are pursuing.

The probability of the next rate hike will be 75 basis points and this will really cause financial markets to continue witnessing a strong wobble. Bitcoin dumping $10k is possible with the harsh policies of the Fed.

Topic: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2023 as the Fed normalizes interest rate policy - page 3. (Read 736 times)