Hmm! Note the similarity between October/November and April/May in this graph:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2010-09-01zeg2011-05-21zvzlztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 118. (Read 540250 times)
May 20, 2011, 03:40:07 PM
May 20, 2011, 03:11:11 PM
I was skeptical of some of your predictions for a while, S3052, but this latest "unexpected" sell-off is really winning me over.
I "earned" 12BTCs from it.
May 20, 2011, 02:46:08 PM
I was skeptical of some of your predictions for a while, S3052, but this latest "unexpected" sell-off is really winning me over.
May 20, 2011, 01:58:01 PM
I am still waiting to get my coins back. my precious.
May 20, 2011, 01:51:19 PM
timberrrrr
May 20, 2011, 12:07:16 AM
Alright I'm going to reiterate my call that we're going to break out of the trading range to the upside and push through ten, with a high around 12. Hoping I'm wrong and we follow s3052's call to 5 or lower -- I'd love to buy more at that price. Feel free to use this as a contrarian indicator 
May 19, 2011, 01:55:21 PM
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May 19, 2011, 08:25:14 AM
I don't think the network hashing power is too low by any stretch. Though, I also help newbies help weaken deepbit's share.
May 19, 2011, 08:14:57 AM
If I had to choose a future between a consistent btc price increase or total network hashing power increase over next month or 3, I would choose the hashing power(as long as all the new guys don't just jump on deepbit and give him 75%....) we need the security of the network to catch up to the new attention bitcoin is getting right now, the value of btc is nothing without it, so a steady down trend or hold in btc prices while the network catches up is fine with me for the foreseeable future, that's close to what happened after we hit parity the first time is it not? overbought to parity = lots of attention, steady down trend correction while network got stronger and stronger, leading to this recent rally putting us back in the same position.
bear in mind folks I'm not an expert... on anything, it's just what i would feel more comfortable with
bear in mind folks I'm not an expert... on anything, it's just what i would feel more comfortable with
May 19, 2011, 01:00:48 AM
Hmm price is sagging quite a bit. I guess those supposed big deposits haven't cleared mt. gox yet? 
s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels?
s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels?
Here you go
http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst
In a nutshell, given the huge sell orders and the changed short term trend to down, buyers do not need to rush to buy now from a technical perspective.
We are in a similar situation as Nov '10 - Dec '10 and Mar - Apr '10. Prices continue down and this can last a couple of months.
May 18, 2011, 10:44:09 PM
short term chart looks gross. proceed with caution men.
May 18, 2011, 08:01:32 PM
buyers are probably chomping at the bit waiting for the influx of dwolla/gox money
May 18, 2011, 05:52:56 PM
Hmm price is sagging quite a bit. I guess those supposed big deposits haven't cleared mt. gox yet?
s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels?
s3052, what do you think are the current support and resistance levels?
May 18, 2011, 05:19:15 PM
I, personally, assume that all TA gurus simply front run their analysis and basically talking up their books. From time to time at least. IMO it all should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.
s3052 put in lot of effort to get himself into a position of an Oracle capable of issuing self fulfilling prophecies. Kudos to him for that.
Still lots of fun watching all these struggles from the sidelines.
s3052 put in lot of effort to get himself into a position of an Oracle capable of issuing self fulfilling prophecies. Kudos to him for that.
Still lots of fun watching all these struggles from the sidelines.
It would be pretty damn silly to let your readers front run you, so yeah, I think so.
May 18, 2011, 02:01:10 PM
I, personally, assume that all TA gurus simply front run their analysis and basically talking up their books. From time to time at least. IMO it all should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.
s3052 put in lot of effort to get himself into a position of an Oracle capable of issuing self fulfilling prophecies. Kudos to him for that.
Still lots of fun watching all these struggles from the sidelines.
s3052 put in lot of effort to get himself into a position of an Oracle capable of issuing self fulfilling prophecies. Kudos to him for that.
Still lots of fun watching all these struggles from the sidelines.
I suppose that's possible but I'd be surprised if even s3052 wields enough influence to move the market with any degree of consistency. I think you could probably do more to move the price by starting rumors in the main discussion threads. My thought is that the price will be impacted most in the months to come by the waves of new people becoming interested in bitcoins who probably won't pay any attention to what is said here.
Anyhow if you make all of your trading decisions based on one person's TA of the market (especially this one) you probably won't be trading for long.
May 18, 2011, 01:22:04 PM
Quote
I'd love to see a pullback to at least 5 but my suspicion is that we'll see a consolidation in the 7 range with slight upward drift for a little over a week. This will set us up for a decisive attack on 10.
So far this call is on track. If we pull back from here it won't last long and my suspicion is we could test 10 sooner than later. Some big names are starting to give bitcoin their attention.
May 17, 2011, 08:37:49 AM
I wonder what people think now that we have held just under 8 for a bit? I think judging the market based on the depth is a joke; 1k to be in the darkpool is very low entry at this point and I suspect there is more depth there than out in the open.
I am still long on btc; but I hedged a bit against a downswing by converting some btc into a mining rig. However, each day horizontal makes the downswing much less likely as the demand for btc from new entrants, I believe (based on back of the napkin math) will easily attain 60k a day.
All the large holders of BTC (with the exception of the earliest investors and entrepreneurs) are pretty much by definition believers in BTC and I think, are far more likely to be looking long long long. With only 7200 coins a day trickling into the economy and more and more money chasing after them, after everyone who has taken their profit has sold: 62.2k new dollars into the bitcoin economy == an 8.5 valuation.
I think we will continue to see levels like that and higher, and thus btc will likely rally again as soon as would-be investors are convinced they aren't going to get the 20% discount they were hoping for.
I am still long on btc; but I hedged a bit against a downswing by converting some btc into a mining rig. However, each day horizontal makes the downswing much less likely as the demand for btc from new entrants, I believe (based on back of the napkin math) will easily attain 60k a day.
All the large holders of BTC (with the exception of the earliest investors and entrepreneurs) are pretty much by definition believers in BTC and I think, are far more likely to be looking long long long. With only 7200 coins a day trickling into the economy and more and more money chasing after them, after everyone who has taken their profit has sold: 62.2k new dollars into the bitcoin economy == an 8.5 valuation.
I think we will continue to see levels like that and higher, and thus btc will likely rally again as soon as would-be investors are convinced they aren't going to get the 20% discount they were hoping for.
May 17, 2011, 08:29:53 AM
We may see record high prices this week with all of the media attention from Reddit/BoingBoing that took down the site/forums earlier today. I don't think we'll see this new attention reflected in BTC price until late this week, as it takes a couple days to get money to the exchanges.
I placed a $1000 bet on this yesterday, we'll see how it goes.
I guess you're betting that s3052 is wrong.
Seems that way. I can't see how this enormous publicity will not lead to an increase in prices over the next week or so. I'm sure there's some way, but the probability of it dropping rather than increasing seems small to me.
May 17, 2011, 12:27:38 AM
We may see record high prices this week with all of the media attention from Reddit/BoingBoing that took down the site/forums earlier today. I don't think we'll see this new attention reflected in BTC price until late this week, as it takes a couple days to get money to the exchanges.
I placed a $1000 bet on this yesterday, we'll see how it goes.
I guess you're betting that s3052 is wrong.
May 16, 2011, 03:45:18 PM
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