Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 121. (Read 540250 times)

This whole post could have been taken 1:1 from a random forex forum thread and it would have been worded exactly like this..ideally in reply to someone pointing out a major flaw in the thread's main subject(or trading system etc pp) with rhyme and reason.
It's incredibly interesting to see that happen.

(These posts in some cases feel at times a little bit like "Oh no, he might take away $importantserviceoropportunity that might never otherwise return or exist again in this shape or form and I might not be able to profit myself if that happens!"..maybe in this case to have one more voice say "Yes sir, this BTC thing will keep on rolling higher!" or to give those who are actually doing button-push-trading atm a justification for speculation.
And in some cases it's just an honest defense of something you enjoy having around.)


Anyway. I pointed out things that don't add up to me(both about the market itself as well as the poster).

To be perfectly honest, I would find it both unfair to him and me - as well as  pointless, as only people who can really actually "get it" are able to judge it with any merit to begin with - to go into detailed criticism of what is actually posted. You could likely do all sorts of things, such as e.g. accuse him of constantly hedging his bets by saying "it will of course go up, unless it goes down") or a plethora of other things, but the simple truth is that 90% of all folks throwing TA about like candy do that already(this is not to say that TA itself is worthless or technical trading not possible..I know the exact opposite is true) so it's no different here.
There's a reason for an abundance of that kind of thing. So I was trying to point out much more basic flaws/warning signs.
Anyhow.

Fans will be fans one way or another, that's a base logic that holds true in any subject or, in this case, internet forum.
Nonetheless I at least gave anyone who cared to read it the opportunity to reflect on things as they are.

I'm fine with him posting, I just personally would not "believe" any of it nor push any money around based on it, neither in his nor the market's direction..but of course we all have our own free will and our own decisions to make.
I feel like I am just rudely intruding/thread disrupting now and will bow out.

+1

Thanks for this fair assessment.

1. Some people here may remember what I have written when I started this thread on Oct 18, 2010:

"For those who are interested in Technical Analysis and to use it to trade bitcoins.

A couple of comments first:
I will publish on a regular basis my p.o.v. This does not give any trading recommendation. Trading remains at your own risk.
I will regularly cover the most liquid markets and I may expand this to others (i.e. btcex in Russian Rubels).

Of note: Please don't mix this with fundamentals. This thread is specifically for technical analysis. Of course you are welcome to comment on fundamentals, but I will not reply."

2. I have a 12h+ / day job and this is why I am encouraging you to donate some coins as I do this technical analysis on top of this job and my family. As Current-C mentioned, you do not have to.

It would be great if you could keep this thread to its initial purpose. thanks in advance

Bitcoins are subject to the same psychological market influences as anything else i.e. greed/fear, and technical analyses is just a way to translate those influences into a visual format that can help make educated predictions.  There are valid concerns that in such a thinly traded market there is the possibility of manipulation that will render some of the analyses invalid, which is why, in my opinion, it is always a wise idea to balance the technicals with the fundamentals.  Nobody, no matter how experienced, knows exactly what is going to happen in the future.  The most we can hope for is to make educated guesses with the information we have.

s3052 has come here offering his opinions on the direction of the trends in the short and long term based on whatever information he has.  He offers this service for free and asks only that you donate if you find the information valuable.  Don't like his opinions?  Think he's a scammer?  Fine, don't donate. 

The purpose of this thread, (and correct me if I'm wrong, I'm new here too) is to contribute to the best of our ability our opinions of the direction of the trend based on technical chart levels -- not to debate the merits of technical analyses itself, or to criticize personally the members who offer those opinions freely. 

It is quite easy to post a new thread.  You could even start one with the title "The Bitcoin Technical Analyses of s3052 is Crap.  Here's Why." and see if you get a favorable response.  Perhaps some will even donate to you for saving them from being scammed.  In the end the market will decide.

Heading out now, but quick replies and I'll reply in depth later...
Fine, it's a ponzi scheme. It promises a tiny return for a tiny "investment". I'm not worried it's going to bankrupt anyone; my sole concern is that sooner or later someone was bound to see it and think "oh noes! Ponzi! Run away! Warn the world!" Which has just happened here. So, thanks for your warning, I hope no one views it as any reflection on bitcoin or on any of the people who participate in it.

What you did was take the claim "12+ years experience" and say: "Anyone who has enough funds and experience to be in the trading game for a decade, trading with real money, has literally got it made." So, apologies, my assumption of "got it made" was "multi-millionaire", but that was purely my assumption. Just like you assumed that experience translates into "got it made".

Now that is approaching a valid criticism. Remember, however, that price depth transcends one exchange.

Well, you could always search for them rather than ask someone who doesn't necessarily have any criticisms of technical analysis of bitcoin? There have been some recent posts on this, which I found thought-provoking, though I disagreed with them. You'll need to do the searching, however, unless you're prepared to wait until I get back.

Is this not the same situation as s3052?  Opportunity cost and time investment are the same here as with private tutelage.  Except he his offering his knowledge free and merely accepting donations.  He has to be able to justify spending time on this.

Is that what Madoff said, too?
No, but seriously - when people promote it, they are lending it life/credence, and the bottom line is that it's a classic ponzi scheme. How you FEEL about it is up to anyone(chuckle lulul), but it is what it is.
My point was: it's a Ponzi scheme.
Yours is that that's great fun.
Some might disagree.



I know sites, blogs, twitters that would take more time to read than there is time in the day, all "analysing the market". It's not as if they are hard to find, but the use is disputeable with all of them.

As for 'trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire"' - I did not claim that, but anyone who knows how to trade either goes into obscurity and money eventually(and past just double digits) or gets attention. I know, because I know people thus concerned..and none of them ever, ever, EVER asked anyone for money for anything unless they decided to run active tutelage(which I understand when pricey, simply because you have to weigh it against your own opportunity cost and time investment).


That was not my point. My point was simply that with barely a chart history it's rather tough to chart out s/r levels, and without proper market depth(liquidity), reliability of price levels in general becomes questionable. If you can create no-bid/-ask situations much more easily, then prices can go wonky much more easily.

Cool, list me some.

0.  He started working on it in April of 1991, so it existed, but internally he called it "Freax".  He announced he was working on it in August of that year (so a few more months we'll be at 20 years), but still didn't mention the name (and still called it freax).  In September, the admin who set up his FTP for the first release decided Freax was a shitty name and named his directory "Linux".  Soon after, at least 10 people had heard of Linux .

Sure, a currency pair is something like "GBP/USD" (trading US dollars and British pounds) or "JPY/CHF" (trading Japanese yen and Swiss francs). When you buy one currency you're using another currency to purchase it, hence "pairs".

Edit: oops, now realise you'd found the answer. Hopefully the Wikipedia link will still be useful to someone, however.

Oh, for goodness sake. Many, many people here "promote" this. It's humorous. It's a joke. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme, and no one (well, mostly no one) takes it seriously. I don't personally bother with it, but for those that do it's a bit of harmless fun.

Yeah, right. Try looking around the web and see how many people give away trading analysis. Most charge for it all, some give you "teasers" to encourage you to pay for the whole thing. In any event, trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire". I have trading experience (not nearly as much) and I can assure you I'm in no way wealthy.

Right... because until we had margin trading technical analysis was impossible.

There are valid criticisms of technical analysis of bitcoin. But these are not them.

Could you explain what this means or where I can read about what a "currency pair" is ?
Perhaps in another thread if it will hijack s3052's analysis thread

[edit]Never mind, I googled it.  reading now

I just wanted to point out that my initial reaction(aka opinion) to anything I have read/seen from "S3052" is that he is not to be trusted.

Various reasons include, but are not limited to:

1. Advocating and promoting a ponzi / pyramid scheme openly on his twitter:
http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst/status/69174383633117184


2. Claiming that he has "12+ years of trading experience", yet asks for donations to his bitcoin address. Anyone who has enough funds and experience to be in the trading game for a decade, trading with real money, has literally got it made. You would not be asking for donations nor selling anything.
At around 10.000 hours invested into something you reach a professional level, regardless of area.
Reference:

http://www.jeffkirvin.net/2008/12/10000-hours/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert

To spell it out: if you know what you are doing in an actual trading environment, you can push double digits in returns around every year. At that return level you are performing at cream of the crop hedge-fund level and will get fund management offers.

What doesn't happen is that you go to obscure virtual currency sites and ask for donations.


3. BTC does not have margin trading, established historical price levels or trustworthy market depth for any amount of "real" orders. Analysing it is akin to trying to do it with penny stocks..though I do admit if you try hard enough, you can generate areas of support and resistance on literally any chart that has price levels. Dito with formations, trendlines etc.
What I am trying to say is - what the guy is doing is trying to read tea leaves at the current stage of BTC evolution.


--


One way or another, and regardless of the validity of TA in the current stage of BTC, the guy seems to be banging on pots and pans for attention, promoting scams and begging for money.

Just wanted to warn people just in case there actually was a risk of someone taking him seriously.

I don't think anyone is considering it as "just another stock". I consider it as one half of a currency pair. Comparing it with stock is less obvious, to me, than comparing it with currencies.

While I enjoy reading your technical analyses, In all my forum/article absorbing, I have not yet read any explanation of why bitcoin should be treated in the same fashion as any other stock-market stock in terms of pattern analysis.

With Bitcoins, as far as I can tell, we are not just talking about a new tech company vying for limited consumer discretionary spending with the latest "must have" gadget, nor is it merely a "store of value" or an investment portfolio component.

It seems to me to have beneficial aspects of all of those, as well as

offering freedom from onerous government regulation on what you can do with your money,

freedom from manipulation of your savings value by manipulation of reserve banks and "economic gurus" who think they know more about how an economy should be run than any of histories other failed advisers,

not requiring the resources of a powerful state backed by a big army to defend its monopoly on the right to use force "legitimately" to maintain its value

a way of moving unlimited amounts of "money" far more easily and quickly from place to place than practically any other currency

An openness and transparency not offered by any other currency in the history of the world

and no doubt other benefits I have forgotten to list..  

With the modern ability of the internet to spread viral information faster than any other time in history (how many had even *heard* of Linux 20 years ago vs how many have heard of it today ?) and more and more people getting online, surfing and joining a global border-free world economy and wanting to spend money and goods and services from around the world, I see any "saturation" limits as still being a long way off..

with a few *possible* failure modes that I have faith in the open-source community to solve as they are discovered..  much like many people said that "Linux will never take off because it lacks the resources of a big company behind it to take responsibility and fix problems"

Taking into account Bitcoin's attributes in that point-of-view, I see no reason why Bitcoin should be treated in the same fashion as any other traditional "stock", Its not just a stock or yet another currency, it is a whole new *system* of finance.

Who in 1990 thought the adoption of the internet would be so fast that the world would be running out of IP addresses just 20 years later ?   Bitcoin is as easily as revolutionary as TCP/IP was.

Maybe I have my head up my rectum, can anyone tell me why it *should* be considered to be "just another stock" and be expected to follow traditional stock pattens of the past ?   I see no reason why it cannot continue to rise exponentially for a long time yet.

You're right, i'm trying to follow a mechanical system for day trading just to see if it's viable despite this thin market. For long term i use a daily chart and the oscillator i use it's  overbought since 17 April, crazy:)

That was kind of my point. If you have many different patterns to match to some data, then multiple ones will match and you'll have no real assertion about the future. Also you have some additional possibilities that "change" the observed pattern: using different scales (log, linear,...), using different window (go to past 10 day, 2 months),...

I'm rather suspicious about these technical analysis tools. I also think the mtgox market is way to small, young and unexperienced to be analysed in this way. Also bitcoin is not something we've seen before.

It's very interesting nevertheless and I'm watching S3052's analysis regularly (and am also donating . I'm just saying: we should take it with a grain of salt.

Trigger zone entered with drop below 8.2 USD.  Some of those btc sitting around 10USD are coming off the market--possibly to sell.

BTC/USD behaves like any other financial market when it comes to chart patterns.

On the daily chart, we are in the EXPONENTIAL RISING pattern, with high risk to reverse in the next days.

On the minute chart, we see an ENDING DIAGONAL pattern, which looks textbook-style. Under this assumption, the top at 9 $ is already in.

Key trigger levels are
(1) 7.9 $ - 8.2 $
(2) 7.4-7.6 $. Confirmation of exponential reverse
First target 6 $
Second target 4 $

Alternate scenario is that BTC/USD makes one more top before reversing down.

I got a feeling that Italy's coast lines can explain 99% of the world markets (stock/currency/commodity/whatever) movements, it all depends on how you move the map 

ROFL!!!!  Hey, I notice that if we break downward, there's another trendline to resist further loss in the opposite coast...

(I also appreciate the more serious posts in this thread, and your thoughtful analysis S3052.)

Congratulations if you've made money on the trades. I didn't sell, no regret though...a typical fundamentalist, you know.