Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 141. (Read 540250 times)

Booked.
I am fine with whatever source, as long as it tracks New York SILVER SPOT. kitco is fine, see link:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html#ny

And we will have a bigger economy to support it too.

It seems that the exchange rate may exceed $1 soon again.

All astrology, I'm quite good at it actually. 

How do you come with such a guess? No offense, but this looks no more "fundamental" than astrology...
Do you consider, for example, that the simple fact that bitcoins are a good way to protect yourself against inflation is a "service" of its own?

IMHO, the main "fundamental" factor driving bitcoins prices is the number of people who understand about it and who also happen to understand how bad fiat money is. The more people that knows that, the higher the price of bitcoins will go...

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever. 

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Me three. Please let me know how this works.

Just a bit of fundamental prospective, The Bitcoin economy size was much smaller when we hit the $1.1 peak.  At that time the amount of good and services offered by the economy, by my estimation supported around a 10c price. So there was a 10x speculation.

As S3052 said, when the market was a 1.1, it could continue going up to 1.5, 1.7 and higher, or there could be a break, there was break.

The $1.1 peak showed that the investors expected the Bitcoin economy to grow 10x as large, in the medium investment term.

Since the $1.1 peak, (that shows how large the economy is expected to grow in the medium term), we market has been consolidating on the expected short-term market size.  This seems to be around 70-80c,  by seeing that it has not breached the 50c the real size of the economy growth has been 'better than expected.'

When the goods and services market size is larger than a size that is required to support 50c, we will then see out next rally to the previous target size of $1.1 (as the market is now convinced that we will achieve the medium term goal).  We will likely see that it will rally much higher as new medium term goals are set. ($5, $10, $50, etc)

The key question is:  What price would the goods and services market support now?
My answer is: at least 20c, maybe near 50c...   We are qualitatively at least twice as large as when we hit $1.1

We are on track, as the market hasn't broken 50c price yet.

I want that action. Where do we watch the price?

Will do up to 200BTC if you like.

As long as the trend continues, 10$ is not unachievable.
who thought prices double every 6 weeks? Who thought bitcoins rise 13fold in only 5 months last year?

and, dont forget , I did not give a time target yet. We will need to evaluate the price action once (and if) BTC/USD make a new all time high.

S3052, do you really think bitcoin will value $10?

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/

http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst

Yea, the big question in the short term is if we break below 0.70$ or not... If we can stay above 0.70$ for the next week, we are in good shape

1

don't worry, I am glad we have this fruitful discussion. It's all a matter of definition. You can say that between 0.7 - 0.8 we are in a sideways territory. I will publish my analysis in the next minutes to bring this into the broader perspective.

MTGox is not the greatest indicator... atm, in reality, it is 0.75 ish. Today's high was 0.758 and hit 0.721 low. When it goes down by 3 cents in a few hours like that, you can't base yourself on that. The scenario that I thought was the most likely was that it would stay around the 0.70-0.75 mark, though at this point I thought it would be closer to 0.72, and in reality it is 0.75 (again MtGox, not the greatest indicator)

I probably did not interpret your definition of down INcorrectly. I thought a few cents like that was generally sideways, because there is no TRUE sideways in bitcoins.

Just to clarify. I never said it will go down below 0.7

I just said, the short term TREND is down as long as 0.8 $ is not broken to the upside. And prices went down from 0.78 to 0.72 (again hitting 0.72 today)

I meant for the short term trend, I was disagreeing with the DOWN. So far, AFAIK, I am pretty right

>sturle

Fundamentally , I agree with you 100%. BTC7USD can take off big time if the trend continues.

From a technical standpoint, there are big hurdles to pass. Update shortly on bitcoinwatch.