Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 142.

sturle

legendary

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https://bitmynt.no

Quote from: nster on April 08, 2011, 08:06:44 PM

Quote from: S3052 on April 08, 2011, 09:40:09 AM

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though Undecided

I think it will climb again. Slowly at first, then accelerating. I don't know exactly when this begins, of course. I base my expectation on two observations:

1. Interest is growing. I have been selling BTC for NOK and EUR on #bitcoin-otc for a long time. Primarily for selling bitcoins I mined myself for currencies useful to me. My offer is by far the longest standing on the channel. During the last weeks I have been selling more and more, and I get a new customer almost every day now. Old customers come back to buy more. I sell much more than I mine, and have to buy BTC at mtgox to satisfy demand. I do this at almost no profit (for NOK at least) to help spread Bitcoin by better availability, and it works!

2. A lot of people are waiting for an opportunity to buy at mtgox. The sum of money in the visible bids on mtgox is as high now as before the jump above parity with USD. You don't keep money at mtgox and active bids unless you have an intention to buy bitcoins.

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: wobber on April 10, 2011, 02:40:12 PM

Silver and Gold will top in the next 4 weeks and then decline for months. Silver down to below 30, then to 20 $ and below 10$

S, That's what you said on your twitter account. Why do you think that? The world's commodities are up in the sky and with the possible W global crisis I bet gold will be above $2000 by mid 2012 and silver somewhere to $100. Not to mention wars that are yet to come, civil unrests etc and US economy is F-ED up. By Ben.

My reasoning is based on technical chart analysis.

I am happy to bet 50 BTC that Silver will dip below 30$ before May 31, 2011 (intraday prices based Spot in USD).

barbarousrelic

hero member

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Quote from: wobber on April 10, 2011, 02:40:12 PM

Also silver is very undervalued and gold is overvalued. The ratio is way off center and this is another supporting argument.

There is no way to determine what the proper "center" should be for the gold:silver ratio.

wobber

legendary

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Silver and Gold will top in the next 4 weeks and then decline for months. Silver down to below 30, then to 20 $ and below 10$

S, That's what you said on your twitter account. Why do you think that? The world's commodities are up in the sky and with the possible W global crisis I bet gold will be above $2000 by mid 2012 and silver somewhere to $100. Not to mention wars that are yet to come, civil unrests etc and US economy is F-ED up. By Ben.

Also silver is very undervalued and gold is overvalued. The ratio is way off center and this is another supporting argument.

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: brocktice on April 10, 2011, 11:19:31 AM

Quote from: S3052 on April 07, 2011, 01:09:46 AM

Targets, i.e. on the DJI below 1000 over the next 2-5 years.

DJIA below 1000 over the next 2-5 years? Really? You don't mean 10000?

This is not a typo. Yes, below 1,000 , possibly below 400.

I went short at 12,450 and will add to this short position as long as the DJI stays below 12,900. I have a larger position in the NDX (NASDAQ 100) which is underperforming vs. the DJI (this is a bearish sign).

brocktice

sr. member

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Apparently I inspired this image.

Quote from: S3052 on April 07, 2011, 01:09:46 AM

Targets, i.e. on the DJI below 1000 over the next 2-5 years.

DJIA below 1000 over the next 2-5 years? Really? You don't mean 10000?

nster

full member

Activity: 126

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Quote from: S3052 on April 08, 2011, 09:40:09 AM

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though Undecided

S3052

legendary

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BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

bitcool

legendary

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Live and enjoy experiments

http://www.dailywealth.com/
Being a fundamentalist and seeing negative interest rate as far as my eyesight can reach, I see no reason for gold silver making tops.
Since silver broke out the $20~22 range, I've seen way too many top callers than I can remember.

S3052

legendary

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Silver will soon make a top. But due its exponential rise that started in January, we are now in a "blow off" top formation. Those blow off tops overshoot very often. This means it can go up to 50 $ or it can mean that last nights high is already the top.

It could be prudent to wait for a short entry until 36.40-36.50 is broken to the downside which could be a first sign that a top is in place. If a top is in, we probably see the steepest decline of silver in decades.

Gold is in a similar position and will need to break below the March low to confirm a top.

wobber

legendary

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What about gold and silver? Silver is now almos $40 per ounce. Do you think this is a top?

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: bitcool on April 06, 2011, 08:31:01 PM

Quote from: S3052 on April 06, 2011, 03:58:58 PM

I also think that finding the right trade entries is simpler than most people think. Much more difficult is the money management.

It is a very true statement. Also finding bottoms is usually much easier than finding tops.

Quote from: S3052 on April 06, 2011, 03:58:58 PM

i.e. I bought European stocks on March 12, 2003 (the day of the low), I shorted the stock market on Nov 26, 2007 (just 2-3 days before the top), due to Elliott wave AND ALSO the other indicators.

That's quite remarkable.

Thanks...

Now we are really getting close to another big top in the stock market.

My projection is that we are maximum 4% away from the final top in the DJI, SP500, NASDAQ.

Targets, i.e. on the DJI below 1000 over the next 2-5 years.

bitcool

legendary

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Live and enjoy experiments

Quote from: S3052 on April 06, 2011, 03:58:58 PM

I also think that finding the right trade entries is simpler than most people think. Much more difficult is the money management.

It is a very true statement. Also finding bottoms is usually much easier than finding tops.

Quote from: S3052 on April 06, 2011, 03:58:58 PM

i.e. I bought European stocks on March 12, 2003 (the day of the low), I shorted the stock market on Nov 26, 2007 (just 2-3 days before the top), due to Elliott wave AND ALSO the other indicators.

That's quite remarkable.

bitcool

legendary

Activity: 1441

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Live and enjoy experiments

Quote from: slush on April 06, 2011, 03:04:39 PM

Usually the _real_ fundaments are traded by somebody before we get the information for ourselves (except we're the insiders). So I believe that price chart already contains everything needed to trade...

True, but there are exceptions, such as thinly traded market, highly manipulated market.

I've seen many times that certain price actions moved exactly the way that max number of stops get triggered. Be it hedgies or whatever invisible hands, they do pretty good jobs.

bitcool

legendary

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Live and enjoy experiments

Quote from: S3052 on April 06, 2011, 02:29:43 PM

Interested, I fared very well over with Elliottwave over the past 9 years.

I'd be interested to learn what your experience is (feel free to share here or via PM).

This guy (au_ag_u) pretty much said what I have observed:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_I/threadview?bn=29797&tid=127988&mid=128107

S3052

legendary

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Short term update:

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-short-term-update-april-6th-2011-by-s3052/

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

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slush and bitcool,

we agree 99%, I am using simple price action patterns and simple indicators for most of my analysis and trading.

I also think that finding the right trade entries is simpler than most people think. Much more difficult is the money management. This is why 1 out of 1000 traders make consistently money over years. This is why most of the rest do well over weeks, months, maybe a couple of years, but then lose everything.

While the above mentioned indicators make up for most of my trading decisions, I enhance this with elliott wave sometimes because is has one benefit that many other dont have: it is forward looking. my biggest and best trades were countering the main trend, where most other indicators did not indicate the trend change.
i.e. I bought European stocks on March 12, 2003 (the day of the low), I shorted the stock market on Nov 26, 2007 (just 2-3 days before the top), due to Elliott wave AND ALSO the other indicators.

slush

legendary

Activity: 1386

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Quote from: bitcool on April 05, 2011, 08:58:48 PM

Elliott Wave theory ... don't have much faith left in so called technical analysis at all.

isn't the only one TA tool on the planet. I personally think that EW is pretty complicated nonsense. I talked few guys trading EW and they didn't agree on many non-obvious patterns. I mean - it's such complicated that everybody see the waves which he want to see.

Quote

I m a fundamentalist now.

Me too. That's the reason why I'm trading simple price action patterns

. Usually the _real_ fundaments are traded by somebody before we get the information for ourselves (except we're the insiders). So I believe that price chart already contains everything needed to trade...

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

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Interested, I fared very well over with Elliottwave over the past 9 years.

I'd be interested to learn what your experience is (feel free to share here or via PM).

bitcool

legendary

Activity: 1441

Merit: 1000

Live and enjoy experiments

Not trying to offend anyone, but after following Elliott Wave theory for a few years and seeing how miserable Bob Prechter's track record has become, I don't have much faith left in so called technical analysis at all. I am a fundamentalist now. Cool

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