Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 136. (Read 540250 times)
April 28, 2011, 11:07:22 AM
April 27, 2011, 11:34:49 PM
My short term forecast was correct. 
Okay, anyway... It is going to rise UP in long term.
Okay, anyway... It is going to rise UP in long term.
April 27, 2011, 05:12:50 PM
All it takes is a ~20k $ order to evaporate the 2 $ level and generate upside potential way beyond that. Given the healthy technicals, a further acceleration to 5$, 10$ should not surprise people too much.
April 27, 2011, 05:02:47 PM
April 27, 2011, 11:22:54 AM
We hit the 1.95 mark. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can break through the $2 mark...I think we will start seeing orders go through at $2 today, but we will be back into the $1.6 range by this weekend. It will take another difficulty increase or two to see USD/BTC surpass the $2 mark.
April 25, 2011, 01:23:56 PM
Yes, the pattern down from the high is not bearish.
Low volume, slow move downwards.
It seems we get another bull run soon. Just depends from where it exactly will start.
Low volume, slow move downwards.
It seems we get another bull run soon. Just depends from where it exactly will start.
April 25, 2011, 12:52:36 PM
Bitcoin Techncial Update. Bull flag with most likely break out to the upside.
A dark ask at 1.6 (very low compared to the smallest visible ask when it showed up) kept the bulls back until the bears woke up. The bears are not in control either. My guess is there will still be cheap coins to buy at or below 1.6 until tomorrow when the Europeans are back from their Easter holidays and banks start processing transactions again. April 25, 2011, 03:12:57 AM
Bitcoin Techncial Update. Bull flag with most likely break out to the upside.
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/
April 24, 2011, 07:50:03 PM
I'm bearish/neutral at the moment.
April 24, 2011, 03:41:30 PM
Overbought. It is corrected now (thanks for spotting the typo)
April 24, 2011, 02:35:00 PM
In your blog posting did you mean to say that we are oversold, or overbought?
April 24, 2011, 01:29:32 PM
Just wondering which time frames you watch most carefully.
I'm watching a shooting star form on the daily and weekly charts which are overbought.
and the 15 minute chart looks like it's turned around on you.
But I have a habit of being wrong more than 90% of the time
I'm watching a shooting star form on the daily and weekly charts which are overbought.
and the 15 minute chart looks like it's turned around on you.
But I have a habit of being wrong more than 90% of the time
I am watching always 2 arrays of time frames:
short term (hourly, 15min and shorter)
mid/long term (daily, weekly)
And then putting the conclusions together of those sets of information.
And on top of all the time frames and indicators, I use my experience gained over the past 12 years, which results in a kind of gut feeling (which essentially is a synthesis of what the brain has soaked in and filtered and saved..). This one I cant really explain ...
By the way, I am more active in the forum than usual since I have 1 week off my normal job. Although I really like being more active here, don't expect the same frequency of responses in the next weeks.
On the question about the direction of the BTC/USD market, I have just completed an in-depth longterm analysis.
Tops are typically hardest to pick, no matter of short or mid/long term tops. My highest probability view is that we have not seen a top yesterday. The uptrend is very robust.
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-special-long-term-update-april-24th-2011-by-s3052/
April 24, 2011, 11:53:51 AM
Anyway, I may be wrong this time. All analysis is based on probabilities and this one was the highest probability call.
Do you have a way of objectively quantifying that probability... To calculate an alpha?
Not unless you can build a pattern-matching system that performs T.A. and back-test it over enough data. Otherwise, no, you cannot do any rigorous statistical analysis.
Plus, predicting direction is not the same as a trading strategy. You need a fully-fledged strategy to calculate alpha, not a prediction method.
April 24, 2011, 11:45:54 AM
Just wondering which time frames you watch most carefully.
I'm watching a shooting star form on the daily and weekly charts which are overbought.
and the 15 minute chart looks like it's turned around on you.
But I have a habit of being wrong more than 90% of the time
I'm watching a shooting star form on the daily and weekly charts which are overbought.
and the 15 minute chart looks like it's turned around on you.
But I have a habit of being wrong more than 90% of the time
April 24, 2011, 11:02:28 AM
As previously mentioned, corrections can take 11 different forms, including triangles. Triangles themselves, can also take different shapes (acending descending, symmetrical and there also exist "running" triangles).
It is always possible that break out of triangles after an uptrend can be on the downside, but there are two reasons why I made the bullish call
(1) Bitcoins "love triangles". If you go back to the history of the bitcoin technical analysis, you will see that probably >90% of all triangles were resolved to the upside.
(2) Last days trend was extremely bullish with record buying volume. Typically, triangles form at the end of bullish phases (Elliott 4th wave position), but will be followed by one more rally (Elliott 5th wave).
Anyway, I may be wrong this time. All analysis is based on probabilities and this one was the highest probability call.
It is always possible that break out of triangles after an uptrend can be on the downside, but there are two reasons why I made the bullish call
(1) Bitcoins "love triangles". If you go back to the history of the bitcoin technical analysis, you will see that probably >90% of all triangles were resolved to the upside.
(2) Last days trend was extremely bullish with record buying volume. Typically, triangles form at the end of bullish phases (Elliott 4th wave position), but will be followed by one more rally (Elliott 5th wave).
Anyway, I may be wrong this time. All analysis is based on probabilities and this one was the highest probability call.
April 24, 2011, 10:17:21 AM
Special short term update
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-short-term-update-april-24th-2011-by-s3052/
Please donate here if you wish to see the Bitcoin Market Coverage continued:
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Curious about something. I just read this article (since I've been wanting to learn more of your terminology): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_%28technical_analysis%29http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-short-term-update-april-24th-2011-by-s3052/
Please donate here if you wish to see the Bitcoin Market Coverage continued:
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I don't understand why you describe the descending triangle that you drew in your analysis as a "bullish" triangle, when it says "if you do see it in an uptrend it should be paid attention to as it can act as a powerful reversal signal".
(Not that I doubt your analysis.)
April 24, 2011, 04:13:52 AM
True, there is fairly low ask pressure, and it's lower now (5 minutes later) than when I posted. Unfortunately, the bids are in the same boat. I don't know enough to tell what is going on, but my best guess is that we will see the price sink slightly until Monday morning rolls around and all the mtgox deposits hit. The bulls have just run out of cash for now. Then, we will rally just a bit more before we top out and consolidate for a while. I don't know though, and if you make trades on my advice you should consider yourself stupid 
.
This is a good point. There is no way to get large amounts of USD into the exchanges on weekends, whereas people can always transfer btc to sell easily..Euro deposits will not hit until Tuesday as it is Easter Monday tomorrow-
I'm waiting for a few pennies to arrive;
April 24, 2011, 04:10:06 AM
1
April 23, 2011, 08:00:27 PM
True, there is fairly low ask pressure, and it's lower now (5 minutes later) than when I posted. Unfortunately, the bids are in the same boat. I don't know enough to tell what is going on, but my best guess is that we will see the price sink slightly until Monday morning rolls around and all the mtgox deposits hit. The bulls have just run out of cash for now. Then, we will rally just a bit more before we top out and consolidate for a while. I don't know though, and if you make trades on my advice you should consider yourself stupid .
This is a good point. There is no way to get large amounts of USD into the exchanges on weekends, whereas people can always transfer btc to sell easily. .Jump to: