The terminology:
"There is a strong likelyhood that we see another leg down toward 0.8 , or even 0.5 eventually." means that my forecast is BEARISH. PRICES are expected to go down to at least 0.8 $, based on my analysis.
There is no ambiguity. Not everyone has to agree to that.
I will be wrong if prices break 1 $ or 1.1 $. (Giving alternative scenarios at lower probabilities is also important in forecasting and technical analysis. It does not mean I am undecided).
Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 146. (Read 540250 times)
February 28, 2011, 02:04:14 AM
February 27, 2011, 06:17:54 PM
1. A new downtrend is established (lower highs) from the 1.1$ high (see upper green line)
I don't see any down trend, the market is just undecided after huge jump to parity, moving in 0.9-1.0 range, without significant overlap of any trendline which you (correctly) identified.
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2. Volume trend is down: rises are accompanied with lower volume than declines
Better explanation - such big volume almost does not move the market. There was big support on 0.9 which absorbed whole sell entry. You can compare today's situation with the large sells few days ago. +50% volume moved market in many times bigger fashion.
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3. MACD indicator is in bearish territory: blue line below pink line. As long as blue line does not cross pink line, we are in a downtrend.
MACD is just a dumb technical indicator based on moving averages and it is just saying again "we are in the correction" by another words. I don't have enough courage to say "market is bearish" based on crossing MACD lines
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4. RSI is pointing downwards and has more room to sink before it gets oversold. When it hits 30, we may see a trend change.
RSI is fine indicator, but mainly works on markets moving in the range. In trending market, which Bitcoin surely is (except long sideway move in December), RSI will show only irrelevant mess. You can see that RSI is on the same level as for whole November and December...
Finally, I think that we cannot predict anything in current situation for now, because the technical analysis says that both sides are possible. Saying "It will go down and if not, it will go up" is useless. The better way is to say "I don't have an idea, because market looks undecided right now".
February 27, 2011, 06:05:50 PM
Thanks a lot+
Emotionally, I wish bitcoins a huge success and further rising value... (but this is not about my emotions)
Technically, it takes a rise above 1.0 $ ,and better 1.1 $ to continue and even accelerate the rally.
Emotionally, I wish bitcoins a huge success and further rising value... (but this is not about my emotions)
Technically, it takes a rise above 1.0 $ ,and better 1.1 $ to continue and even accelerate the rally.
February 27, 2011, 05:13:40 PM
Vladimir, thanks for the question.
Basically, a multitude of key technical indicators and tools point downwards (If I like this forecast or not, but it is my job to stick to the facts).
To illustrate it better, I share another chart with more in depth analysis and some explaination.
1. A new downtrend is established (lower highs) from the 1.1$ high (see upper green line)
2. Volume trend is down: rises are accompanied with lower volume than declines
3. MACD indicator is in bearish territory: blue line below pink line. As long as blue line does not cross pink line, we are in a downtrend.
4. RSI is pointing downwards and has more room to sink before it gets oversold. When it hits 30, we may see a trend change.
5. Uptrend line through the 0.3 - 0.4 -0.8 zones has been (slightly) broken to the downside: see second, lower green trendline.
Net, not a lot to turn bullish now.
Very longterm, the uptrend is intact as long as we remain above 0.5 $.
Hope this explains better.
Basically, a multitude of key technical indicators and tools point downwards (If I like this forecast or not, but it is my job to stick to the facts).
To illustrate it better, I share another chart with more in depth analysis and some explaination.
1. A new downtrend is established (lower highs) from the 1.1$ high (see upper green line)
2. Volume trend is down: rises are accompanied with lower volume than declines
3. MACD indicator is in bearish territory: blue line below pink line. As long as blue line does not cross pink line, we are in a downtrend.
4. RSI is pointing downwards and has more room to sink before it gets oversold. When it hits 30, we may see a trend change.
5. Uptrend line through the 0.3 - 0.4 -0.8 zones has been (slightly) broken to the downside: see second, lower green trendline.
Net, not a lot to turn bullish now.
Very longterm, the uptrend is intact as long as we remain above 0.5 $.
Hope this explains better.
February 27, 2011, 04:36:05 PM
Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead. Strong fund inflows are needed for that, which is always possible, given the huge awareness increase on bitcoins (as highlighted in other threads)
Your S3052
February 27, 2011, 01:40:50 PM
No comments.
February 25, 2011, 05:13:03 PM
Here a very brief Technical BTC Update.
BTC/USD remain in a correction phase.
While the short term head and shoulders bearish pattern has been invalidated with the break above 0.95 $, the intermediate correction isprobably not over.
There is a strong likelyhood that we see another leg down toward 0.8 , or even 0.5 eventually.
Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.
Your S3052
BTC/USD remain in a correction phase.
While the short term head and shoulders bearish pattern has been invalidated with the break above 0.95 $, the intermediate correction isprobably not over.
There is a strong likelyhood that we see another leg down toward 0.8 , or even 0.5 eventually.
Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.
Your S3052
February 23, 2011, 02:22:38 PM
As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update.
February 22, 2011, 03:10:49 PM
Your comments make a lot of sense
From a long term view,
* Big support is 0.5
* Strong resistance is 1.0 - 1.1 (all time high)
From a long term view,
* Big support is 0.5
* Strong resistance is 1.0 - 1.1 (all time high)
February 22, 2011, 03:05:21 PM
todays update is very short since no change vs by special update from yesterday
The correction is still underway
Another leg down is likely towards 0.7, and possibly down yo 0.5$.
Only a quick rise above 0.89 $ or better 1.0 $ can change this outlook.
Usually and old resistance become support, 0.50 it's the key line; above it it's good, under it it's bad:)The correction is still underway
Another leg down is likely towards 0.7, and possibly down yo 0.5$.
Only a quick rise above 0.89 $ or better 1.0 $ can change this outlook.
I think we will stay in the range of 0.5-1 for quite a bit, we need more partecipants reflected in volume activity to see a new phase well beyond 1$.
February 21, 2011, 04:23:08 PM
todays update is very short since no change vs by special update from yesterday
The correction is still underway
Another leg down is likely towards 0.7, and possibly down yo 0.5$.
Only a quick rise above 0.89 $ or better 1.0 $ can change this outlook.
The correction is still underway
Another leg down is likely towards 0.7, and possibly down yo 0.5$.
Only a quick rise above 0.89 $ or better 1.0 $ can change this outlook.
February 20, 2011, 05:40:35 PM
Technically, all he's saying is that if prices go down they may pause at that level before they either fall further or start rising again. You can't use it to predict if prices will go up or down from that level.
February 20, 2011, 03:35:49 PM
So BUY at USD 0.5 = 1 BTC?
February 20, 2011, 02:49:08 PM
I reviewed the longterm charts and thought I should share this with you immediately.
As mentioned in Friday's update, Bitcoin/USD have started a correction after breaking below the decisive 1$ mark as highlighted previously. The key question is how far could this correction go?
To get a better picture, I reviewed the longterm chart, using logarithmic scale which is most appropriate for this strongly rising market.
Key indicators continue to be strongly bearish: The MACD crossed downwards strongly for the first time in record, and Exponential Moving Average 13 has turned down.
When drawing the already often shown and proven longterm trendline through the last significant lows, it is clear that there is potential downside towards 0.5 $.
As long as prices do not break above the downsloping EMA 13 (at 0.89 $), the downtrend is intact.
A break above 1.0 $ enables a further rally to 1.1$ (all time high, and then higher towards 1.5$, 2$, etc.)
chars here: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=255
Your S3052
As mentioned in Friday's update, Bitcoin/USD have started a correction after breaking below the decisive 1$ mark as highlighted previously. The key question is how far could this correction go?
To get a better picture, I reviewed the longterm chart, using logarithmic scale which is most appropriate for this strongly rising market.
Key indicators continue to be strongly bearish: The MACD crossed downwards strongly for the first time in record, and Exponential Moving Average 13 has turned down.
When drawing the already often shown and proven longterm trendline through the last significant lows, it is clear that there is potential downside towards 0.5 $.
As long as prices do not break above the downsloping EMA 13 (at 0.89 $), the downtrend is intact.
A break above 1.0 $ enables a further rally to 1.1$ (all time high, and then higher towards 1.5$, 2$, etc.)
chars here: http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=255
Your S3052
February 19, 2011, 04:05:50 AM
The market sentiment poll is reset again.
Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?
click on the poll above
Please VOTE! This enriches and improves my BTC/USD forecasts and ultimately helps the community
Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?
click on the poll above
Please VOTE! This enriches and improves my BTC/USD forecasts and ultimately helps the community
February 18, 2011, 05:49:29 PM
1
February 16, 2011, 06:00:44 PM
1
February 14, 2011, 03:17:06 PM
1
February 13, 2011, 04:47:34 AM
Do you think we will really touch 5-10$ soon? Isn't this a target for the next 5-10 years?
February 11, 2011, 02:07:20 PM
1
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