Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 44. (Read 540249 times)

A short term update has just been issued to subscribers. Title: Riding the Elliott Waves

Yes, that's the same strategy. Perhaps not the best, but simply working. Because BTC is rather stable last time, my focus is more on gold and silver now, values which are heavily dropping.

Indeed I'm rather enthusiastic for BTC, waiting for the greeks/spains/italiens/chinese to distribute in alternative real values, instead of bubbling fiat currencies. I think most of the world does not know about it. Hope technology of BTC will resist.

As usual, last call for June 2012 subcriptions

similar to this idea? (from this very thread on dec 14th 2011: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.650108)

There is a strict anticyclic way for never loosing money with bitcoins (and other assets) for the long time, under the following conditions:
1) You believe in BTC as a real value (similar like gold)
2) You do not expect to make quick money

Follow strictly an easy rule, to invest a fix amount of USD for every cent the BTC value moves: for example, invest 1 USD for 1 cent that the BTC moves: I start from 5.00 USD/BTC (so I have a maximum of 500 USD to invest, if the BTC drops to 0.00):

USD/BTC
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50 buy BTC for 50 USD, create an ask at 5.00 USD/BTC then
5.00 do not trade this, it is the fair value, and so doesn't matter
5.50 sell BTC for 50 USD, create a bid at 5.00 USD/BTC then
6.00
6.50
...

The method before is manipulation free, it benefits from manipulation of others. It stabilizes the currency ratio, it can be used with any amount of capital. It can (and should) be used with different REAL assets, like equity funds (or any that you real believe in), to distribute the risk in random variation.

There are two gaps, that can be adjusted as needed: The gap between ask and bid (1.00 USD here), and the step to subsequent bids or asks (0.50 USD here). You can make the gaps bigger (less trading, better timing) or smaller (better arbitrage, higher fee).
You have some more options here: If you have too less BTC, buy for 60 USD, and sell for 40 USD. And vice versa, if you need more USD. It's a bad idea, to trade huge amounts in a small period of time.

It works best against manipulating bangsters, but do not invest too much!!!
Most work is finding real assets, like gold (or BTC). There are some, but it's a hard job.
Trading is easy without greed.
Good look.

+1
Couldn't have said it better.

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."

[color=][/color]that's a great question.
The answer is actually quite simple:

Focusing on technical analysis has guided me and I am tempted to say many dozens of subscribers very well through all "bitstorms".

Because the charts include all fundamental infos and wild speculations, hacks etc. at all times.
With that in mind, a bitcoin chart can be analysed in the same way as the Dow Jones , silver , gold, currencies, etc.
And all the principles and rules work in the same way.

I could never invest in bitcoin trading with all this going on -- the infinitive speculation of situations would drive me mad, how do you keep your sanity after so many years, S3052?

The manipulator for sure wants to avoid losses in his total portfolio.

But that could mean accepting a small loss with the bid and ask walls and the occasional15k BTC  dumps and purchases - versus protecting his holdings somehwere else. Perhaps he is highly leveraged at bitcoinica...

that is correct.

I don't really see it.  100k of price stability would cost you 100k.

What you want if you own 100k BTC is, in fact, not price stability, what you want is the maximum amount of depth or liquidity so that you can be sure your 100kBTC can be turned back into fiat as quickly as possible.  The best way to do that would be to drive prices up.  Unfortunately, if you have BTC you can only do your stabilising on the sell side.

As always: manipulation costs the manipulator as much as anyone.  I wonder if the sudden vanishing of walls around March was the manipulators realising just that fact -- they were losing money.

If you had, say, 100k BTC, it wouldn't be altruistic at all.  It would be prudent.

Intentional stabilization of the Bitcoin price requires people to buy Bitcoin for more than they would normally be required to pay, and/or sell Bitcoin for less than they would normally be able to get. So it's costing people a significant amount of their own money to do something altruistic. Because of this I think it's unlikely but not impossible. The strange stabilization of price lately does seem to point in that direction.

From observing closely the order book.

Erm no; I'm saying it must be nice to be able to avoid fees.

Think of it as the same as "it must be nice to own a sports car".  I know it's hard not to hear negatives in everything that is in text form; but it was simply observing that there are some advantages to owning your own bitcoin exchange.

Are you gathering this from chart analysis, or have you heard from people who say they are engaged in such stabilization practices?

Well, good luck trusting them with your money. I'll never put another cent in them nor any significant coin in other bitcoin business b/c of the bitcoinica disaster.

Wow.
What do you expect them to do? Pay you the fees?

Intersango are great imo and they only recently started charging fees.