Bitcoin futures - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

eyesopen

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Quote from: cellard on December 07, 2017, 03:03:09 PM

Quote from: shinzai on December 07, 2017, 02:32:18 PM

Hi!
I'm a bit confused by all the talk about how bitcoin futures will affect bitcoin price.

As far as I understand, a futures contract is a binding agreement between 2 parties where mr A will buy an asset from mr B at a beforehand specified price and time.

The asset can be any commodity like oil etc, and are used both by producers as hedge and by speculators.

It is often possible to settle the agreement directly in cash, without buying/selling the actual underlying asset. I suspect most speculators prefer this option.

So, how will bitcoin futures work?
Will they require buying/selling bitcoin itself or will they just be settled in fiat cash?

I suspect these futures will primarily be used by speculators who probably will prefer to just settle them in cash.

So why would such a contract affect the bitcoin price at all?

I'm new so thanks for taking your time and explaing this to me

In theory, futures should be backed by real bitcoin holdings which the issuers of the futures would hold, but im not sure... I think futures is just legal institutional gambling. Wall Street will try to control the price through futures. It depends on how stupid the market is to let themselves get manipulated by the price of something that is not even real Bitcoin. We are dealing with billionaire weasels now, it's a new different level never seen before in Bitcoin.

My recommendation: Ignore futures and it's price, and only trade real bitcoins directly, anything that isn't this is on the scammy side.

does this mean that the issuers will be trading bitcoin normally in order to obtain more holdings for more Futures traders?

We are dealing with billionaire weasels now, it's a new different level never seen before in Bitcoin

i think this what a lot of people have concerns about, the futures traders are different,

they will definitely not care about crypto, blockchain, open source, decentralised tech.

buwaytress

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Quote from: XinXan on December 08, 2017, 07:34:20 AM

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

Good analysis indeed. Futures to me are just a different way of gambling, since it's all speculation and so called hedgers buying the contracts. Why it's important for Bitcoin is that at the moment, there is no real way for investors to hedge against Bitcoin, more importantly to short it. You could count selling against alt pairs or Tether, but that's still not in fiat currency, which is how all the new futures next week will be settled.

Most investors feel this shorting ability will bring downward pressure on Bitcoin, making price a little more realistic. If they're right, I wouldn't mind. But this is the logic behind forward contracts, not the single-day self certified ones that will debut next week. They're strictly speculative, and hastily approved, rightly to the concern of the FIA expressed yesterday in an open letter to CFTC: https://fia.org/articles/open-letter-cftc-chairman-giancarlo-regarding-listing-cryptocurrency-derivatives

But as the above analysis points out, it may eventually be meaningless.

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Quote from: shinzai on December 07, 2017, 02:32:18 PM

Hi!
I'm a bit confused by all the talk about how bitcoin futures will affect bitcoin price.

As far as I understand, a futures contract is a binding agreement between 2 parties where mr A will buy an asset from mr B at a beforehand specified price and time.

The asset can be any commodity like oil etc, and are used both by producers as hedge and by speculators.

It is often possible to settle the agreement directly in cash, without buying/selling the actual underlying asset. I suspect most speculators prefer this option.

So, how will bitcoin futures work?
Will they require buying/selling bitcoin itself or will they just be settled in fiat cash?

I suspect these futures will primarily be used by speculators who probably will prefer to just settle them in cash.

So why would such a contract affect the bitcoin price at all?

I'm new so thanks for taking your time and explaing this to me

There are a lot of people who are against bitcoin, misunderstanding it to be a bubble and bull shit. How this will affect is that there'll be corruption if there is no intervention by SEC. The bulls of stock market will play with the prices like hell, trust me. To some extent there'll be a panic and bull shitting about the bubble asset- bitcoin. I feel this bitcoin future thing is just not the right thing for bitcoin.

Zuilhsa

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Quote from: Nana_Marini on December 08, 2017, 08:13:24 AM

Bitcoin has good future. Now, many more people join bitcoin because with bitcoin many people get reward. So it can diminish unemployed person

absolutely many people are dependent upon bitcoin for their lives. It has started to decrease unemployment. Bitcoin tremendous price increase makes more investors to invest in it and the prediction of huge growth of bitcoin makes even more people to join the forum.

cizatext

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Bitcoin future will be bright as speculators keep on speculating the price of bitcoin will keep on growing high. More investors will invest in bitcoin and government of many countries will adopt bitcoin as their secondary money, so to that bitcoin will sustain it market value and it exchange rate will skyrocketed to as high as $50000 in the next few years to come.

XinXan

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Quote from: Lancusters on December 08, 2017, 09:39:55 AM

Quote from: XinXan on December 08, 2017, 07:34:20 AM

Quote from: shinzai on December 08, 2017, 07:21:00 AM

Thanks everyone for your contributions to the subject, but so far I have not recieved any clear answer to why the bitcoin price would be affected by bitcoin futures trading (that will be settled in fiat).

Sure, the launch of bitcoin futures is good news to bitcoin, but I've seen journalists speculating in traders shorting bitcoin etc and what effect that would have on the bitcoin price.

Why would it have any effect at all?

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

I did not understand from this analysis. Why do you think that someone will use the services of the Chicago stock Exchange. This analyst of the last century. Now there are many exchanges which will continue to trade in real time. I think the price of bitcoin will remain volatile. On the Chicago stock exchange will not be simple clients wishing to sell or buy bitcoin.

What? The link I mentioned just analyzes what happened to silver and gold when futures were introduced and the conclusion was that nothing relevant happened, just a bit short term but long term was meaningless.

zarados

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I don't think so that bitcoin futures will have a big effect on bitcoin prices. I think that's just a new trading facility that will either contain only bitcoin or another crypto. The difference is, here you just buy the position, and don't get the actual bitcoin. In an exchange, you can earn a profit by selling coins whose prices are rising. but in bitcoin futures, you might be able to open 2 positions, ie buy positions, and sell positions. So you can also gain profit if the price is down. If in bitcoin futures are given multiplier/leverage functions, then this will be more like a gambling site.

Lancusters

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Quote from: XinXan on December 08, 2017, 07:34:20 AM

Quote from: shinzai on December 08, 2017, 07:21:00 AM

Thanks everyone for your contributions to the subject, but so far I have not recieved any clear answer to why the bitcoin price would be affected by bitcoin futures trading (that will be settled in fiat).

Sure, the launch of bitcoin futures is good news to bitcoin, but I've seen journalists speculating in traders shorting bitcoin etc and what effect that would have on the bitcoin price.

Why would it have any effect at all?

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

I did not understand from this analysis. Why do you think that someone will use the services of the Chicago stock Exchange. This analyst of the last century. Now there are many exchanges which will continue to trade in real time. I think the price of bitcoin will remain volatile. On the Chicago stock exchange will not be simple clients wishing to sell or buy bitcoin.

Nana_Marini

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Bitcoin has good future. Now, many more people join bitcoin because with bitcoin many people get reward. So it can diminish unemployed person

shark69

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I think bitcoin will be big and very profitable, even bitcoin can be a hope in the future for some people in the world. the current bitcoin price is very good, reaching hundreds of millions.

shark69

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I think bitcoin will be big and very profitable, even bitcoin can be a hope in the future for some people in the world. the current bitcoin price is very good, reaching hundreds of millions.

XinXan

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Quote from: shinzai on December 08, 2017, 07:21:00 AM

Thanks everyone for your contributions to the subject, but so far I have not recieved any clear answer to why the bitcoin price would be affected by bitcoin futures trading (that will be settled in fiat).

Sure, the launch of bitcoin futures is good news to bitcoin, but I've seen journalists speculating in traders shorting bitcoin etc and what effect that would have on the bitcoin price.

Why would it have any effect at all?

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

shinzai

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Thanks everyone for your contributions to the subject, but so far I have not recieved any clear answer to why the bitcoin price would be affected by bitcoin futures trading (that will be settled in fiat).

Sure, the launch of bitcoin futures is good news to bitcoin, but I've seen journalists speculating in traders shorting bitcoin etc and what effect that would have on the bitcoin price.

Why would it have any effect at all?

TTITA

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Quote from: cellard on December 07, 2017, 03:03:09 PM

Quote from: shinzai on December 07, 2017, 02:32:18 PM

Hi!
I'm a bit confused by all the talk about how bitcoin futures will affect bitcoin price.

As far as I understand, a futures contract is a binding agreement between 2 parties where mr A will buy an asset from mr B at a beforehand specified price and time.

The asset can be any commodity like oil etc, and are used both by producers as hedge and by speculators.

It is often possible to settle the agreement directly in cash, without buying/selling the actual underlying asset. I suspect most speculators prefer this option.

So, how will bitcoin futures work?
Will they require buying/selling bitcoin itself or will they just be settled in fiat cash?

I suspect these futures will primarily be used by speculators who probably will prefer to just settle them in cash.

So why would such a contract affect the bitcoin price at all?

I'm new so thanks for taking your time and explaing this to me

In theory, futures should be backed by real bitcoin holdings which the issuers of the futures would hold, but im not sure... I think futures is just legal institutional gambling. Wall Street will try to control the price through futures. It depends on how stupid the market is to let themselves get manipulated by the price of something that is not even real Bitcoin. We are dealing with billionaire weasels now, it's a new different level never seen before in Bitcoin.

My recommendation: Ignore futures and it's price, and only trade real bitcoins directly, anything that isn't this is on the scammy side.

It could be the fact that bitcoin futures become a mere market manipulation.
As for trading stock and asset require to price stability in the market. The Billionaire weasels you are talking about are something that has not been in the bitcoin yet, they are only concerned with the profit without thinking about the future impact. that's why this is a high risk in terms of trade.

TTITA

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Quote from: lucifochrome on December 07, 2017, 10:31:58 PM

From what i understand with bitcoin futures, i think that this is backed by institution with a huge amount of bitcoins on hand, What they will do is to have you put the x amount of bitcoin ahead of time in terms of a contract, something like betting, now if by that time bitcoin's price rise from the amount on the contract then i guess you double your bitcoin but if it dips then you will lose double because you will not be able to sell it short.

Looks like I agree with your opinion.
If the current bitcoin price increase is caused by pump manipulation of a group of people, then this becomes a high risk investment, which can be a sudden loss in case of a panic dump.
The problem that still exists today is about the number of transactions that stuck in the chain, if this continues to happen then btc sales will not happen instantly anymore.

lucifochrome

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From what i understand with bitcoin futures, i think that this is backed by institution with a huge amount of bitcoins on hand, What they will do is to have you put the x amount of bitcoin ahead of time in terms of a contract, something like betting, now if by that time bitcoin's price rise from the amount on the contract then i guess you double your bitcoin but if it dips then you will lose double because you will not be able to sell it short.

Beefcake

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Beefcake!!!

I think that the significance of futures is not necessarily the contracts themselves, but that the approval of futures signals wall street's acceptance of digital currencies. Since its creation bankers, ceos, and academics have only had bad things to say about bitcoin. But this is proof that big money, or at least some big money institutions, see it as legitimate. I know a lot of people who used to think that it was just a scam. But now they they may have to reevaluate that opinion.

It is happening sooner than I thought, but I think we are seeing the beginning of wide spread adoption.

XinXan

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Quote from: shinzai on December 07, 2017, 08:02:00 PM

Quote from: cellard on December 07, 2017, 03:03:09 PM

In theory, futures should be backed by real bitcoin holdings which the issuers of the futures would hold, but im not sure... I think futures is just legal institutional gambling. Wall Street will try to control the price through futures. It depends on how stupid the market is to let themselves get manipulated by the price of something that is not even real Bitcoin. We are dealing with billionaire weasels now, it's a new different level never seen before in Bitcoin.

My recommendation: Ignore futures and it's price, and only trade real bitcoins directly, anything that isn't this is on the scammy side.

Hi & thanks for answering. Can you please explain the point of backing futures with a commodity if the contract is to be cash settled? Why would that be needed?

Quote from: aardvark15 on December 07, 2017, 06:11:22 PM

I have heard that they will be cash settled. I don’t think you would buy actual Bitcoins (or short actual Bitcoins). I don’t know how this will affect the price of actual Bitcoins but is seems that there could be potential for manipulation of the price by doing futures contracts.

This could be good or bad for Bitcoin. It’s new territory for us so we’ll find out the ramifications after the contracts are on the market.

Thx for contributing. Can you please explain how that manipulation would work if futures are settled in fiat? Do you refer to that bitcoin could be bought/sold on-chain in order to manipulate future positions? Becuase that's the only possibility I can see. I.e. not the other way around.

As far as I've come to understand, when the price moves too much in one direction then one side of the futures contract will gradually lose money on his account and eventually risk margin call. Then, if he doesnt deposit more money the exchange will forcefully liquidate his position by selling the future contract (if Long) to someone else. The losing speculator is left with nothing on his account. But he will never have to buy/sell actual bitcoins, right?

This is what Cboe says: XBT futures provides investors with the opportunity to buy, sell and trade bitcoin futures or implement your trading strategies without having to pay for the actual currency. The single price settlement process gives participants the option of using XBT futures to hedge their exposure in underlying bitcoin or gain exposure to traded bitcoin prices without holding bitcoin.

So no, you are never buying or selling, that's pretty much the point. This should push bitcoin price higher, if it's not already doing it but eventually it's going to be bad.

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Quote from: warrior333 on December 07, 2017, 03:11:08 PM

It is possible to trade bitcoins with futures is an attempt to make the price of bitcoin is predictable. Theoretically, if you know how many coins will be sold in the future and at what price then you can predict the price. I don't know if it will work this option, but I don't like it. Perhaps today's prices is an attempt of speculators to make money before they leave the bitcoin.

I am not an expert on futures much more I can't predict how will this new Bitcoin Futures affect the price of the real Bitcoin but I am more inclined to believe that maybe in the next few months these futures may directly affect Bitcoin but later on the overall Bitcoin market may just ignore these futures and put them on the sideline. I can sense that the Bitcoin market is not anymore stupid that can easily be swayed by the forces around it. The way I see it is that it will be Bitcoin that will sway the Bitcoin Futures and not so much the other way around. But then again, we might as well wait on how things will materialize on this new development. Right now, the market sentiment is very much excited for the futures primarily because this is the concrete step towards the legitimization of Bitcoin which is a big news for all of us in the Bitcoin community.

ugr_erkn92

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The fact that Bitcoin futures will be started has already raised Bitcoin prices, the news has been bought. Futures will also contribute positively to the legality of Bitcoin. Bitcoin' price isn't going to be constantly growing, I am expecting a drop, small investors must be very cautious.

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