I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.
I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.
If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.
IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.
Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.
Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.
By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.
The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.
Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.
But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.
It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.
Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.
BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrong’s ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.
Let’s revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan B’s stock-to-flows model:
https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12aFocus on this chart:
Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.
So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.
However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.
Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.
$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.
Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 – $10k, so the 3 – 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.
My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.
BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.
On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 – $64 and $8 – $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.
Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.
Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it can’t rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.
Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.
GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS
I did the same calculations for GRS and it’s about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.
In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrong’s monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But that’s going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges don’t get slammed.
In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.
In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.
The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.
So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.
