Seems like I'm reliving the first bitcoin bubble which I was very active in.
I got into it when bitcoin first rose up to around $30 in 2010 or 2011, I forget now. I wanted to buy and I was in the forums listening to all the euphoric people. I slowly watched it lose steam, regain steam, and slowly look weaker and weaker.
To me right now bitcoin just looks weak and I think it will be going much lower during the next few weeks.
Just like in 2011, I told everybody while the price was still over $20 that they were crazy to not take profits and cash out at that time. Wasn't a few months it was at $2.00. Call me stupid but I did call $1.00 bitcoins at that time for a long time even though people thought it was crazy and flamed me to hell, I missed my $1.00 range to buy in as it hit $2.01. I was close enough. Same stupid mistake was I predicted oil would hit $20 a barrel in around 2008, it hit like $30, my plan to buy in big at $20 and I missed that opportunity.
While I don't hit my marks, at least I predict big downfalls, contrary to what most people believe.
I'm going to say to everybody that if you are not unloading a large portion of your bitcoins over $1000, you are simply crazy as a $1000 bitcoin is just not sustainable, and is outright ludicrous at this time. I am going to even say further that you are ridiculously stupid if you don't cash out a sizeable amount at over $1000, especially if your bitcoins were bought below $100.
The reason why bitcoin hit around $30 the first time, and over $1000 this time is that their are big players or manipulators, I like to call them. They pump the price up high, get people euphoric and get interest into the coin, then slowly dump the coin to make profits. Pump and dump I guess you can call the strategy.
This strategy simply works, it almost gets me (probably the most frugal person in the world) to buy bitcoins during the first bubble at $30, and even now at $1000. Because I am the most frugal person around I just can't get myself to buy at ridiculously stupid price points. I wait to buy at what you would consider my stupid price points, which get close but never hit. My point is that if these manipulators get frugal people like me to consider buying at these insane prices, it gets a lot of normal people to pump money into the system in which they profit from.
My last point is, don't be stupid and greedy and take money from these rich manipulators. They will soon be letting the price fall very soon and doing a controlled drop while cashing out all the coins they accumulated when bitcoin was much cheaper.
Flame away, but I will stick to my position.
I do very much agree to this. Everybody owning bitcoin is sitting on paper profits. A lot of people feel filthy rich ! But paper profits are nothing until you realize these. Has anyone ever thought what would happen if just 1% of all investors cash out. (or if everyone just sells 1% of his holding to buy X-mas gifts). This would be 120.000 coins coming to the market. The orderbooks do not look like as they would be able to cope with that without bringing the price significantly down. This does not include other people selling in panic.
The current small dips we have seen lately give an impression what could happen. If you compare the volume on these dips to the previous crashes, they are minor. This is just the beginning. I have seen 2000 coins moving the market by 10%. I know some people who have much more than that and hold tight, once they start selling.
This all went to fast and the smart investor will cash out at some point and I believe the point is coming closer. My personal target is the old peak of USD 266... I might be wrong and we might go much deeper.
Flame away...
