Supply(which is capped at 21m) is just one thing, now it will completely depend on demand. Even if a certain asset was sharply decreasing in supply, if there's not much buying, price will still go down (or at least just not go up, but sideways).
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/law-of-supply-demand.aspNOPE
it doesnt work like that in crypto..
firstly
there are 19m btc right now.. but exchanges only have deposits of ~1m btc
and the active order books have less then that..
there is no connection to 'coins in circulation(network) vs market price
those that hoard away from exchanges dont ever trade so they dont touch the price thus dont affect the price.
markets only move via the coins deposited in exchanges and currently on ACTIVE order lines
..
secondly
as for the demand
if you look at the market changes over the last 10 years.. the average minnow order is about $400-$600. same then as it is now
what has changed is that the buyers get less coin for their fiat.
yep. even if there was less coin. or more coin deposited in an exchange. . deflation still wins out
yep in 2012 there were only 10.5m coins in circulation(network)
in 2022 there are 19m coins in circulation(network)
so normal investopia 'supply and demand' would say there is more supply.. meaning 2022 should be lower then 2012
but thats where crypto trading differs..
sellers seeing buyer only wanting to spend $400 dont then throw whole bitcoin at them as thats all a buyer is offering. instead a seller gives them a smaller portion(decimal) of crypto for their small fiat offer
its why in 2012 MTGox had orderlines of 1btc-1000btc
and why now its more like 0.0002btc-2btc