Topic: Bitcoin personal analysis (Read 1128 times)

Ultimately, you seem to be both a newbie and overinvested that you are so nervous about price drops and/or that you did not cash out some of your apparently overinvested status.

If you hold for the long term then you can just cash out a bit here and there along the way and not worry about it.  One of the problems is to overinvest, which merely causes you to get nervous.

Seems to me that 4 years from now, the price is much likely to be higher rather than lower than our current price, even likely that there will be some decent price appreciation along the way, even though we may have ups and downs along the way, but also seems to be a better place to hold 1% to 10% (or even more) of your investment value rather than in traditional investments... talking longer time horizon.

In other words, if BTC prices go down from here, either holding or buying more seems to be the more prudent approach.

Of course, holding in the event that you are over invested, or buying more in the event that you have not over invested.

Even though it is NOT a good time to sell, if you are nervous, of course you could still shave a bit off of your overinvested amount in order to hedge in the event that BTC prices go down rather than up.

One of the tricks of gaining and maintaining a BTC position is to be both psychologically and financially prepared for price moves in either direction - because sometimes the price direction can end up going against you, at least in the short term.

Let's hope that price doesn't go to 9400 because that is the level we were before all of the increases happened and we all know what that entails. It was literally right after we moved from $7k levels (and even $4-5k levels before that) so if the price goes down to 9400 that basically tells us that it is at a risk of going under $9k as well, it is not looking good at that point.

However if we could stay above 10500 levels, that also means that we are not willing to drop yet and the pressure could be too high for the seller side. Hopefully it wouldn't be a long term thing and we would go up because I did waited around to sell my bitcoin (bought at $6.5k so no problem) to sell at 2x on $13k but it never reached there, now I am feeling a bit regret that I didn't get out quick enough.

BTC/USDT 4H


Sales and supply volume is still very high. According to the chart shown above, I expect correction to the price floor of the green channel. Then we will see how the price will react to the channel floor. In case of supporting the price, there is a probability of pullback to 10400-10500 and in case of losing and breaking the support area at 9800 we can expect to see bitcoin at 9400.

BTC/USDT 4H


Since I had some personal issues please accept my apologies for the delay.
The selling pressure is very high right now. I expect the price to fall down to the 10520 and then be rejected slightly higher. As long as the daily candlestick does not close below the range of 11400 the targets are 13000 and 13800. If the price comes below 14000 and stabilizes, we can have a the downtrend situation for bitcoin to 9800 and 8200. Also, There CME gap around 9600, where Bitcoin is usually interested in filling the gap with sharp movements. So we wait for the reaction to the support line 10400 to determine the mid-term movement of bitcoin.

I see no judas swing here. Unless bears sell this down hard in the next few hours so it closes as a wick through the upper band, it's a fairly obvious upside range expansion:



Testing the June 2019 high looks very possible from here. And once that breaks, there are no convincing bearish scenarios left.

The daily Bollinger Bands are squeezing again. It's gearing up for another test of $12K from the look of things. The question is whether it ends as a judas swing (wick above the Aug 2nd high before failing) or a true range expansion.

We can see examples of both scenarios in April and May:

BTC/USDT 30M


As you can see on the chart, In short time-frames, Bitcoin is currently ascending and moving on the ascending channel to 12000usd resistance area once again. Also, we do have the parabolic sar, Ichi support area and channel floor support. That's why currently the expect to see the price rise to the resistance area.

BTC/USDT 4H


On the chart above, you can see the price react on 12000usd. Previously, after each time reaching this area we saw the price falling to the channel floor. On this time frame the 12000usd area can not be ignored at all. If the price breaks this area stabilized, bitcoin's next targets on weekly time-frame can be on 13K and 14.5K.

BTC/USDT 4H


The previous analyse in 14th July is still valid. But, in order to update the analysis the explain it better there are two possible scenarios:
1. Breaking the downward trend line, resistance area on 9200-9250 and moving toward 9400. But, here you should know the 9400 resistance is important resistance, I expect higher prices as 9700-9950 after breaking this resistance area in a sharp movement.

2. Loss of support area 9020-9060 and trend line, here we expect the price to move lower to 8600-8700 or even 8100. In this case, if the price get enough support under 9020-9060 and closes a few candles under this area and If it does not stabilize below area there is still a possibility for the price to move toward 9400.

According to my personal strategy and weakly timeframe , I believe is the second scenario and It is possible to lose this support area at any time.

Hello sana54210,
Thank you for visiting this thread and sharing your thoughts with me. Yes, higher targets even the 10K again are not that much hard. Since we expect to see the price breaks one side of the channel, if the channel breaks, 10K is not unexpected and we can see the price even on 11K this time as I explained it on my new analysis I provided here today.

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the chart above, we are still on a price compression shown with a pink color on the chart, After breaking this price compression area from any side we can expect to see a dangerous sharp movement. We do have the strong support area on 8980 and 9080, this can make another price jump to 9600 and 9800. and this 9600 - 9800 resistance in a very important area where the market decides to continue the trend or after breaking 9900 we can expect to see Bitcoin on higher channels up to 11k, Or by not breaking it we can expect to see the price at 7800.

I feel like that 9670 shouldn't be that hard, I know that it looks like we can go to any direction at any given moment, but to everyone I would suggest putting buy orders at around $9670 level so that if the price reaches there, you should buy as much as you could and in the end you would be able to take advantage of the situation where the price will definitely go above $10k if it breaks over 9670 levels.

Obviously, leviathan is making a ton better explanation of this with the charts, but I just wanted to say my two cents about the direction and not the levels because I have to agree he is much better at figuring out the levels himself. To me, that chart looks like start of a bull run that will definitely see us go above $10k very soon and not even take a month before we are higher and staying there.

BTC/USDT 1D/2H


As you can see on daily timeframe, Something important is happening. Yesterday on Bitcoin market, daily candlestick was closed out of the daily downtrend channel, But it's not a valid break yet, we can't confirm if it's the dynamic resistance is beaked or not. However, last daily candle(current candle) opened out of the daily channel and it's about to close out of it (15 hours to make sure and anything can happen during this time.). If the channel breaks we can expect higher prices.


Here is 2 hours timeframe, we do have the support on 9375, Also the next resistance is around 9670. So, if the daily dynamic downtrend channel breaks and price stay stable above the support area(Yellow Rectangle), Next target can be expected around 9670 as shown on the picture with green rectangle.

Thank you @exstasie for your contribution again, you are the one who motivating me to publish more analysis by following this thread.
Since this analysis is short-term based, I didn't mention the lower support areas. But, yes, if the key support area breaks (Which is completely possible) we may see downtrend channel with a greater angel to lower prices or even another sharp movement.
Much appreciated again.

What would it take to invalidate that channel, in your view? A candle close below the lower bound? A break of that lower support area in the $8,600s?

The way it's bleeding without strong bounces is a bit ominous to me. I don't really like dip buying this range anymore. With volatility at extreme lows, a breakout (quite possibly down) is very possible in the near future.

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the chart shown above, we are currently on a downtrend channel (green channel). Static support and resistance levels based on half of the ATR value are clear on the chart with green rectangles. After breaking of the uptrend blue channel today and rejection the channel floor, next support level can be 8800 and after that we can see the price at downtrend green channel floor, we do have also the second static support area here. After touching of the support area, we expect to see the price attempting to reach the channel ceiling at 9450-9500 once again.

BTC.D 1D


I see many people talking about alternative coins and bitcoin dominance. So, here I'm going to provide you my BTC.D analysis. As you can see on the picture above, I expect this kind of movement in mid-term time frame. First price retracement until 64 percent and then increase until 67 percent. (Here I also expect decrease the price of bitcoin.) and then, decrease dominance of bitcoin until 62, which will change altcoin markets a lot. As I said before, We are currently in the first wave of decline until 64. In this situation, we are expecting the growth of altcoin prices, then hard decrease and then increase the prices again.

BTC/USDT 4H


According to the chart shown above, I expect temporary growth to the range shown on the chart. After the recent price fall to 8800, price reacted to the support area very well. In 2 hours time frame, the positive regular divergence (to change the trend, not the correction!) was recorded in MACD oscillator. Also, price is moving on a short-term downward channel (Orange channel) and it's currently on the roof of the  short-term channel. If the candle closes above 9170 and and after price growth stabilization at 9260 and stabilization another candle above this area, I expect the price to rise at 9480.

That's a tempting channel, but also an extremely dangerous buy zone. The reason why it's so dangerous is the currently tight range coiling for breakout. With bands this tight, we need to be prepared for more than a simple undercut of the $8,900 lows. We could get a full blown BB breakout, like these other 2 examples to the left:



I also expect a flurry of stops to trigger if your buy zone doesn't hold and we get a weekly lower low sub-$8,630.

Since the last analyzes from 16th June worked perfectly and the price reacted as I was expected, here I'm going to share an other analyze with you.

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the picture above, the price is still moving on a descending channel. The important support area is @9080-9100 and because of the 50-day moving, Fibonacci 61.8 and Ichimoku resistance the most important resistance area can be 9450. In the other hand, 9550-9600 is also super strong resistance area. Because, we do have the possible price reaction to the price channel ceiling and 100-day moving. Generally, I see more descending sign than ascending. So, I expect descending price movement on the market.

BTC/USDT 2H



Hey fellas. As you can see here on the chart, in 2 hours time frame price is moving on a descending channel. Due to the channel reaction, Fibonacci level and 100 days moving, we expect the resistance area @9550-9700. Our important support area will be @9250, if it fails and break the support area, we will continue the downward trend until 8800-8300. The rest of the resistance and support areas are shown in the picture above.