Topic: Bitcoin personal analysis - page 2. (Read 1177 times)

BTC.D


Dominance of Bitcoin is currently moving into an ascending channel. Considering that it will be difficult for alternative coins trading after increasing dominance we expect to see the altcoin's price falling and losing the marketcap. That's I suggest to avoid trading on altcoin if you don't have the enough information. Maybe we will see price jump and subsequent price floor for some coins.

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the picture above, the downward movement can be seen in Ichimoku and we are also waiting for the price fall. The recent tend-line was broken and in order to change the trend and continue the ascending movement, the trend line should break upward and break the 9680-9700 strong resistance area(It requires very heavy support). This resistance is very important because it is also common point of our 50 day moving, Ichi and Fibo, which all play the role of resistance. After breaking this important resistance area, we can once again see the price touching 10,000 usd. But, in the case of not having enough support, our first scenario, which is shown in the picture above, will happen

Decent possibility. I'd like to see how that weekly candle closes first. It's a bearish shooting star for now (great reversal sign) but there is still 28 hours to go. Bulls could close it back up into a more neutral doji by then.

The headfake to $10.4K is ominous for bulls, but since there was no follow through by sellers at all, we need to wait and see. Breaching the June 2nd low ($9,270 Coinbase) will be an early sign of bearish continuation. Breaching the May 25th low ($8,630 with the daily lower BB at $8,700) and we could see some real blood.

Until then, prepare to be trolled. This market is very unpredictable at the moment.

Let it fall in $7k value and surely i will Buy double of my investments because may Point now is if i cannot make a 11k selling price then i will add more for my holdings and wait until the effect of halving happens.

I don't consider the 250$ price as a strong support because we have been there for couple of times last year and same as the start of this year yet?nothing proves it is a strong position,Not unless Ethereum Break the 300$ value then i may consider that a strong and bullying status.


Almost all of the Thread says Bitcoin need to stay at 10,000$ level and stay for long time but not coming to soon.

Maybe this time we need to let the Below 10k level as a basis of our investment and focus in investing again,instead of waiting for high price to sell off?

Hey STT,
Appreciated for sharing us your comment about the market.


That's exactly why I said the price is unstable. That's difference between crypto market and Forex. The price on crypto usually surprise traders due to many other reason.


Can't be sure about this part. But yes, in my own idea it's possible to failure the current trend and start a downtrend in short-term and after touching the support area we can see Bitcoin reaching new top levels.

Top of the range, top of short term move even medium term is maybe a fair view.  Neutral to negative bet seems ok to me though I dont think its proven either way and Bitcoin always wants to surprise people.



Its being tested so often by the market I think it gives way not that we see failure of the uptrend overall but a proper test is failure short term and fall back to some support maybe even nearby and then we close back above the positive trend on weekly after trying all prices.

BTC/USDT


Is short-term time-frames bitcoin is unstable. But, in 4 hours and 1 day time frames it has ascending trend movement, and these day we see lots of price manipulation in the market. In order to continue the ascending trend it should pass the 10,000 once again and stay stable above 10,000. Otherwise, I would refer you to my halving technical analyze I provided before, where I believe Bitcoin trading for lower prices @7800-6600.

BTC/USDT


Seems like the 10,450-10,500 resistance area is still not broken and resists as bulls are not strong enough pass the resistance area. So, we expect the price to do a retracement move. The volume is also decreased as I mentioned in the picture above. Also, since price already done the bullish movement during last 2-3 months and failed to pass the resistance area we expect a price correction here.


Let's go for short-term now.
As you can see, after recently breaking our triangle and coming back to it(false breakdown), the price is getting near to resistance area of the triangle. So, we expect bearish movement here.

I'll stop sharing altcoin analysis.

Hello Stedsm,
Thank you for your motivational message. I'm happy to see you are following this thread. Recently, I had some personal issues. But, sure, I'll be much more active here because of nice people like you. You have my worlds.

I believe you can do that if it actually belongs to you (i.e.; your work) else you'll need to give credits to the owner of that image in order to abide by the forum rules and you won't have any issues.

@OP,
I guess you've stopped posting BTC analysis completely or what? I had been following your thread as you used to give good BTC analysis but I'm seeing nothing from your end since April about BTC. Please share some more insights on what do you believe about the next possible BTC move?

I too believe altcoin analysis and its speculation does not belong to this board. Do you have any specific problems in accessing altcoin speculation sub? It is always a good practice to post according to the boards which help right people to find your researches at right times and with less searches.

Instead of posting same image again and again on different boards, it would be much better practice to go for quoting them wherever needed. This way you will never breach any of forum rules. I am not sure about rules on posting same image on multiple places.

You should read the first post once again. As I said I'll be shearing my personal analysis in differente markets. Like I shared about OGN before. I'm not going to create another thread for it. However, mostly I post BTC analysis here.

The technical analysis won't fail. unless the market collapses due to some strong and unexpected new such as 11th September, Covid-19, etc...
But the technical analyzers fail sometimes. If you understand the price action very well. (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53948767) you will understand there is strong logic behind it. The price is reacting to the levels as it should.
If the price rises and react to some price level some traders were right and if the price falls and react to the support areas some other traders where right. But, in both cases you can't blame technical analyse science for it. Sometimes, I'm wrong but the technical science and price action is in wrong. It's all about the statistics and probability we can never say we are a hundred percent sure.
News like tx fees won't change the price directly. It's all about supply and demand and traders buying or selling in the market.

I'll consider your comment. actually, It's against my will. since I hate copy/paste stuff even if it's mine. But I'll try. Thank you  for the suggestion.

Thanks for your comments @FanEagle and visiting this thread. I'll to be more accurate in my analysis next time. Hope to see you and your comments in this thread again.

It is really interesting to see how technical analysis is getting failed against the potential of bitcoins. I have seen lots of people are speculating about the possible down trend incoming weeks whereas I just believed into the basic fundamentals of bitcoin ecosystem; one of them is higher tx fees. Usually higher network fees lead to price of bitcoin increasing as it simply denotes like miners may not be interested in buying new mining equipment but they may go for buying bitcoins for the same money.

I am sure you must need to have another topic on Speculation (Altcoins) to cover your ethereum analysis.

(Also, you may post same image on multiple places to cover boards/topics like Wall Observer and here. Posting same image on both the topics will not be a problem but description should be at only one place).

ETH/USDT/240

After taking a rest here it is the technical analyze of Ethereum. Recently and during the last days the ETH price was moving on ascending price channel and ceiling range. After moving away from the golden and strong support areas if you take a look at 20-50 day movings, ParabolicSar is showing the support area @230usd. According to Fibonacci levels, we expect the resistance in the range of 250-259usd and a price correction coming up before the resistance area.

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You can also check out my BTC/USDT analyse here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54547532

That's almost kind of what I was saying really, that you can at least have a good sense now that TA works or at least has workable data from markets to produce some logical charting, but you almost can't say the same for alts outside the big 3 or 4, simply because they don't have good data to make good TA -- so you really only can rely on fundamental news, which you feel at least hopefully sways the prices. Good luck again;)

BTC/USDT

As you can see the price reacted to the blue dashed support line and the green area drawn above is our current important resistant level of the price because the of 50% retracement fibo level + dynamic resistance line of the daily char (The pink link) + static ATR resistance area (The green area).
After the previous fall of the price I expect the price to rise high up to the 50% Fibo level and break the support blue dashed support line. However, if the price rises and break the green important ATR area I expect the price the enter the new channel and start a side (complex)movement.

I'm really sorry for the late reply and just excited to see the interest to this thread.

Hello Jating,
I appropriate your contributing here
Alternative coin's price usually follow the bitcoin's price and sometimes the opposite. To make it clear if you see a very high amount of ATR/Dominance on bitcoin's price usually it's not a good time to start trading on altcoins because if the spike happen usually FUD and some emotional movements will happen after that. and people won't trade altcoins that much in this case. relation between bitcoin price and the altcoin price is just like the relation between father and son, Sometime they obey and sometimes they won't. But if the father gets sad the son will be angry and if the father gets happy the son will enjoy. That's why after the bitcoin price dump many traders stooped trading on altcoins.
You can check the dominance here: https://cryptocurrencyfacts.com/what-is-bitcoin-dominance/

Hello btc_angela,
I appropriate your contributing here.
Yes, due to the reason I explained above I agree with you right now. I was planing on altcoins because I was expecting to see a lower ATR and a better situation. But, Right now I changed my mind.

Hello buwaytress,
Thank you for your participation here.
Yes, good point.
And the thing about the altcoins is I prefer to watch the fundamental new as well. Since you only trade on one market, BTC/USDT for example, You can always check the news from reliable resources while none can check every single news from altcoins, at last I can't. I prefer to play on a field I know.

Yeah I'd stick to Bitcoin. As it is, TA is contentious in a market like Bitcoin, with a lot of people still pointing out that it's not as big or as decentralised a market as its proponents would like to believe. I tend to agree it's not as big as the numbers are putting it, but I also believe the hidden data (OTC, P2P) is also more than able to make up for all the wash trading that's inside the data.

I digress.

You can argue about the validity of data from BTC/USD markets. But arguing against validity of alts is much, much harder. You also need a new thread in the relevant section for that!

I would advise that you just do bitcoin predictions for now. Stay away from alternative coins, otherwise you will need to open a thread on that board. I don't know how 'difficult' it will be for you to track Altcoins movements are there are thousands of them literally.

I will agree with what the other posters are saying, bitcoin is what members here wanted to see. Of course there are risk, but if they see someone making good at technical analysis, then you don't know, maybe they are going to look at your predictions before they make up their mind on investing or trading.