Topic: Bitcoin personal analysis - page 3. (Read 1192 times)

What's your take on altcoin though? Does it follow bitcoin or will it start to de-couple as well?

The reason why I ask this is because if it will just follow bitcoin then I don't think you need extra effort to do your analysis on them. Much better to focus solely on bitcoin as this is what everyone wanted here, to see such predictions like yours. You just don't know, maybe you have a following here and waiting for your bitcoin prediction only because obviously, you are really doing a good job.

Good to see that your previous analysis/prediction worked very well although I hadn't noticed your thread. My expectations was wrong since I had believed that bitcoin would go over $8K and I had a plan to sell small amount from my portfolio for real cash.

Regarding atlcoin analysis or prediction still I believe we shouldn't go with it on current circumstances. It would quite complicated to analyse altcoin if there isn't any real positive news. If in case bitcoin play negative role then we might encounter big loss. As far as I know altcoin volume is reducing currently (I am not sure, just my opinion). So it would quite risky for alt prediction/analysis.

To whom it may concern,
Last analyze worked as I was expected to see the first scenario happening, much much appreciated everyone who followed and contributed in this thread.
Since the recent movement of the Bitcoin price. I believe, it's time to check the alternative coins markets as well.
Maybe I'll try to post some a few analysis from alternative coins soon. But, still I'll keep updating you about the Bitcoin price.
Please kindly feel free to commenting your ideas.

BTC/USDT going down soon!

Hello every one,
After a few days I'm here to share another analyse with you related to BTC/USDT
recently due to some sharp movements the price is growing but there should be stooped somewhere at a point and start to retrace the uptrend movement.
I believe if the price stays in the blue channel we can expect the retrenchment soon. But since we are talking about a crypto currency, the other scenario is to breaking the resistance line and going for the next channel.
I would personally vote for the first scenario and expecting the retrenchment very soon.

BTC/USD


Here as you can see we are on the 3h time frame.
As you can see on the chart the RSI and MACD oscillators you can see the bullish divergence, as you can see on the chart we had a new low price which was not confirmed by RSI and MACD oscillators. so we can expect a trend reversal here.
As we expected before, the method we already said about it before (bullish trend reversal signal) is clear is here and you can easily detect it. -the price broke the black dotted trend line already and started the uptrend movement.
Also you see the the valid Pivot on the chart - marked with yellow rectangle area.
In the other hand the RSI started moving from the oversold zone area.

Also here on the daily chart you can see a gartley pattern. However I won't confirm this one. but, you can also consider it and expect for a bullish trend here

I speculate to drop to $8800-9000, I'm only looking to RSI indicator though. There is no other indicator to validate my speculation but I think the strong support for is in this range so if the price will still be in red for a week, that's about the price bottom which RSI will mean its oversold. $9200 also has a support so there might be a spike when it touch that price before dropping again.

Thank you for sharing us your comment and contributing here, much appreciated!
Head and shoulder doesn't always mean to be bullish or always bearish
You can find more info here: http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
Yes, there is still a possibility for the market to touch the $9200 price.
Unfortunately, I'm a little busy these days but I'll try to post give some info about the long-term chart if you are interested.

I remember that head and shoulder formation will lead to down fall and I am seeing in your charts that you are pointing out a head and shoulders formation.

By considering the market is continuously for 2 weeks got stuck within the range of $10,400 to $9400 levels and by observing its upper side range is diminishing on every attempt to break the resistance levels which may signal another short term dump. Hence, we can expect bitcoin markets to test its immediate support levels around $9200 to $9150 ?

You long term chart based on halving is interesting. Could you project to possible rally's peak after the 3rd halving?

BTC/USD Long-term (weekly)

Here as you can see we are already on a fractal bull cycle, also third halving of bitcoin is scheduled on May 12th. So, we can calculate that the first phase of the current bullish cycle will last around more than 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018 and marked on the picture above with an arrow). That's why the people whom bought that this point are big winners.
But unfortunately, I see a lot of holders scared with the current pull back of the price which is normal but they shouldn't be.
So, here on the chart as you can see the bottom is always the point of the lowest value of price where the bearish movement(retrace phase) ends and the bullish phase movement starts.(Marked with arrows).
Also we had the same pattern on the cycles(the 49%-51%) on first and second round of bitcoin halving. so, we expect to see the the same pattern on movement for the third round of the bitcoin halving. but this time much stronger because of fundamental reasons.
An explanation about the 49%-51% cycles, you can see every bullish movement of this market can be divided into two bullish phases (marked with light/dark grey colors on the chart).
You can also checkout the current price channel of the last bullish movement(pink channel).
The current golden support area is also visible for the current phase of the bullish cycle with yellow color on the picture above.
In the other hand, as another example of trend reversal signal if you look at the black dotted trend channel, you will see a valid example of the trend reversal.

Tank you for contributing in this topic and thank you for your comment.
As I said In the first post of the topic the goal of this thread is just to educate other users about the technical analyzes. So, with using the head and shoulder pattern I wanted to give the readers an example.
But I agree with your comment because the patterns like head and shoulder are not reliable for trading. however, this method can be a helping hand sometimes.
I'll share the BTC/USD analyzes about the weekly and monthly time frames soon as you asked me to.
Thank you again.

I hesitate to call it an H&S because of the ambiguous and downward-sloping neckline. These aren't usually great performers in my experience.

Overall, I agree with your sentiment though. Despite the pop to $10K, I expect the market to meander sideways a while longer. I also think a drop to the 50-day MA (currently $9,125) or the 200-day MA (currently $8,824) is still quite possible.

What are your thoughts on the bigger picture, like the weekly and monthly time frames?

BNB/USD

Here is a good example of trend reversal signal of the market.
As you can see on the MACD indicator, The market formed a bullish divergence, which gives us a trend reversal signal. (The pink lines)
If we look at the chart, you will see the downtrend line. If the downtrend line breaks out, the trend reversal signal will be confirmed and It will give you buy opportunity.
However, since we are talking about the crypto currency market, everything is related to Bitcoin movement. so, if the bitcoin falls, BNB will fall and this market also will move into a downward.
Also we do have a support area on ~20. So, even if the price started a downward after reaching the 20 we should see the uptrend again.

BTC/USD

My analyzes are all bearish these days.
Here we can see we had a head and shoulder pattern on the chart.
Alright, as you can see here after reaching the resistance of the channel we expect a bearish movement to the support line.
However, the best plan here is to wait for a valid bearish pivot from a pin bad or engulfing pattern.

Will move the topic, thanks
buying below MA works but not always

Cool, its always nice to see other analysts on the forum. I'd suggest moving your thread to Speculation. It's slightly less spammy there, and it's also where price speculation technically belongs. You can check out my thread too while your at it.


If you look at the 2019 bull run, buying below the 20-day MA was quite profitable.

BTC/USD daily.


As you can see we had an important support area after the long shadow on 26th Oct. and the support is already broken and came to a new lower level of the price. bellow 10058. (the green line)
Also with MA 20 you can also get a bearish signal as you can see on the photo.
and we do have bearish engulfing lines on candles.
But here we do have the the strong support area at 9100-9200.
And we do have the cup on the yellow spot
So I believe the market will keep going down until reaching the mission of touching the support area. but after the downtrend we will see much stronger uptrend attempt to break the resistance line. maybe up to 10600.
 

Here I'm creating this topic to provide you my personal crypto analysis. (mostly BTC/USD)
So anyone here can check the analysis and use them if they want to.
However, my analysis are not for trading purpose these are not signals, just normal analysis for educational purpose.
You may think all of them are wrong! and maybe you are right so you can share your comments here with me.
Also here you can share your own public analysis if you want.
I do technical analysis and usually won't check the fundamental news.
Let's hope to create a nice and useful topic here together.