History has a habit of not repeating itself exactly when you want or need it more!
Initially, it was a small of events with just two or three cycles and it was pretty easy to find patterns, but with more events as time passes a lot of those have already been broken
- no ATH before halving, gone!
- no two consecutive ATH in a cycle
- the price not going below the previous highest cycle point
- prices after a bull run will not go below the previous cycle's bull run
The second one was already broken in 2013 when in Spring bitcoin reached a new ATH and then again exploded in Winter.
Aren't the last two one and the same thing?
Bitcoin has become tied to macroeconomics, if the FEDs cut the rate more than anticipated you're going to have a new ATH maybe late November, if they decide to not do a thing one might experience another cycle being broken with a downturn right after halving, a thing that never happened.
I don't think so. I believe that if the FED panics and cuts 50 points or more, we'll get that panic reflect on the market and signal recession. A large rate cut would cause markets to dump, just like a high hike right now would do the same.
Also, a price of 100k would be really disappointing, counting inflation right now the previous ATH was at 78k, which would mean just a 30% excluding inflation would bring us above 100k, 30% for 4 years is pretty low for crypto, especially with everyone thinking they would live like kings by putting down $100.
Yeah if you sold bitcoin for $60k in 2021, you were able to buy much more for it than you would for the same bitcoin sold at $70k in 2024, so it's like this little halving bull run never happened. In the real wold physical value we've gained nothing by holding bitcoin for 3 years.