Very interesting analysis, but I am very skeptical about the relevance of technical analysis to predict the future behavior. And this is especially applicable to the bitcoin performance because of its very recent appearance in the financial and technological world.
Understandable. I am actually quite surprised at the repetitive nature that can be observed by looking at the history of BTC prices. However, at least up to this point, there definitely are correlation between the cycles I have highlighted. That being said, no guarantees about the future...
I think what we are seeing, as I said at the beginning of this thread, is a representation of human nature (greed, FOMO, panic, etc.) reflected in Bitcoin price. My hypothesis is the reason we can see it is that Bitcoin is the first market free of artificial limitations. There are no restrictions on trading hours (24/7), countries where you can do it, no blackout periods, no limitations on which exchanges are allowed to trade Bitcoin, and the market is not shut down in the event of a price crash. Everything is truly reflective of interest and investor sentiment. This seems clear from both the up and down trends that can be seen.
On smaller scales, there are cycles too. Each runup in price follows a heartbeat pattern, with a rise, then fall back, eventually settling somewhere in the middle, higher than where it started. Lots of noise of course too, but trends are there.
In any case, don't take this as definite future predictions; it's merely observations.
