Topic: Bitcoin price cycles - page 6. (Read 26911 times)

Can't see any way around it for the 21 Inc. applications, but Brave can cache a lot of transactions off chain and then do bulk charges against a wallet, if necessary.  So it may not be held up.  But,


Agreed.  1000%.  Can't understand how anyone can think that artificially crippling a system is good for innovation.  I wonder how many potential apps are stalled simply because the bandwidth isn't there?  And as for all the arguments against increasing it - they are all just theories until the limit is lifted.  Remember - Bitcoin is still beta software; this is the time to see what happens when necessary changes are made.  The system is resilient, and all the players have a vested interest in it's success.  If someone really wanted to kill it, they would attempt it no matter what the block size was; trying to hide behind a paper wall doesn't make the danger go away.

They both rely on microtransactions, and bitcoin isn't ready for micro-transactions and will never be ready if these stubborn folks won't get past the whole


This whole 1MB nonsense is damaging bitcoin so hard.

a major pump Bitcoin fit if there is a larger cycle, ie, 3 or 4 cycles of 900 days formed a major cycle.

Stocks are very prone to seasonal things, like shopping tendancies, seasonal travel, annual earnings reports, etc.  Why is Moore's law 18 months?  Why do fashion trends tend to repeat every 20 years?  Why are sunspots on an 11-year cycle?  I think something on the order of 900 days is reasonable, as it is long enough for sentiment to come full cycle, from optimism to hype to pessism to despair to acceptance and then back to optimism (or something like that).  I'm not a psychologist, but it seems reasonable.  Also couple in technology evolution cycles and VC interest; both of those are not tied to the calendar, and would likely have periods longer than a year if there is indeed any cycle to them at all.

I think the perception that Bitcoin price should follow annual trends is the mistake; there is nothing about Bitcoin adoption that has anything to do with the time it takes for the Earth to go around the sun.  Humans tend to think of things in yearly cycles, but many other things are not tied to that.

No, I definitely don't think this is over.  As I said above


At best, we probably have a few million users of Bitcoin currently.  That's less than 0.1% of the population; if that's all Bitcoin ever gains in terms of traction, then maybe exponential growth is over.  But if we cross the chasm and reach orders of magnitiude more users, then the future growth will eclipse anything we have seen to date.

And with things like the machine payable web (21 Inc.) and Brave browser coming as practical applications of Bitcoin for people, who knows?  And there are of course tons of more potential future applications, most of which haven't even been imagined yet...

of course they are, because the FED isn't done printing dollars at an exponential rate.

Well there's obviously a pattern here, although it's strange that it's a 900 day cycle. Most stocks have a typical yearly cycle where they drop for one reason or another at a certain time of the year (usually Jan/Feb is stagnant for stocks or they drop after the holidays). I can't find any logical reason as to why a 2.5 year (give or take) cycle.

At the same time, with bitcoin in its infancy this isn't exactly a pattern yet but so far it's looking like some sort of predictions can be made. If bitcoins never deflate (as 21M is the biggest number of total coins that will ever be 'minted') will we see a steady increase of say 2-3% to counter the inflation of the USD? When bitcoins are stable some time far in the future I say yes!

 30x -> 10x -> 2x

so the next one will be what? 0.2x?

that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.

did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years?  gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.

this isn't over.

Thanks again for doing this kind of analysis. I wish there was more out there looking at the fractal nature of price changes. One thing to note however is that even though the pattern of 30-10-2 may have repeated, perhaps the overarching pattern coupled with the fact that fiat always inflates would indicate we're eventually going to be due for another super-cycle of 30 sometime after this one has run its course.

Correct bitcoin is like a wheel spinning just because the price up and down so repeatedly, just so happens to the price of bitcoin . So good monetize bitcoin because of its price down and up will have a profit . But I think in recent months have been stable and the price he is just barely less in a few days and return to the previous price .

Sorry for lack of updates to this thread; summer is pretty busy and all, and with the lack of "excitement" around the bitcoin price, I haven't been all that driven to update things.

However, this week I thought I should update; so, here's what the graphs look like to the current point in time:



Hm.  Not bvery exciting.  What happened to the cycle this time?  Well, let's change the scale of the graph and look again:



Wow... much more interesting.  While not the desired highs I think we were all expecting, this cycle certainly seems to be repeating the same pattern as before.  As I have been thinking all along, the price is showing a similar fractal nature to what we see in nature.  In fact, if you look at the size of the scaling on the graphs, we have been reducing the overall scale each time, from 30x -> 10x -> 2x (in terms of actual dollar value).

Also, if we highlight what I am trying to identify as corresponding events in each cycle, it looks like this:



What's especially interesting in this is that not only is the amplitude of the cycle decreased, the duration seems to have as well.  I think this can all be attributed to Bitcoin reaching a local saturation point; not that we're anywhere near potential capacity, but we are in terms of current TPS as well as users.  We have reached the chasm, and now need to truly cross it into mainstream if we expect to see significant growth in the future.

However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):





I personally wouldn't expect a large adoption of any other coin than Bitcoin at the moment.  The overall market for crypto is not large enough to support many players at significant levels.  There are always new coins coming around that show potential for various reasons, but unless either they unseat Bitcoin as top dog or the overall market/userbase explodes, I don't think you could expect large adoption of other coins.  Still possibly very good for trading gains if you know what you're doing, but ATM not more beyond that.

I've been looking into Monero recently, and it seems very interesting.
Does anyone accept Monero at this point?
I would invest in some, but Im afraid it will be just another alt-coin that is never used for anything besides exchange trading.

Bitcoins price always cicles around the amount of 600 dollar and not only the 600 dollar but becuase we already saw that the price of the bitcoin losses to the 500 dollar or something but we will never now what to hit.

The Monero has good scalability. It does not have a block size limit. The block size is adaptive to the current demand.

Yup, market demand or my usual call is a movement of the market is a major factor in doing something. and we will not be able to benefit from market movements are weak crypto, except bitcoin. because as poor as any in the future, bitcoin bitcoin can bounce better and give a tremendous advantage

If that were true, then some altcoin with better scalability would've rocketed past bitcoin. Yet here we are, with the total cryptocurrency market cap below bitcoin's all-time high.

The simplest explanation is that the demand just isn't there.

I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back

for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved.

thats true, after a big growth there must be a come back down, it is impossible for the price to just go up and never down, i think we will soon rocket up again

going back to this thread I must say comparing old charts with recent trends I found quite interesting info. Probably, even without finex hack we would have dropped to these prices. Finex pushed just a bit more.

Waiting for some updates with recent trends