It's been about a month since the last update of the charts, so here they are with the latest data. First, the updated chart of my original 900 day cycle:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fizq9mcy.png&t=591&c=lYXLa01ltBo6hw)
DISCUSSION:
We are getting close to the end of phase 1 of cycle 3 in this interpretation. We have about 2 months to go, and have not yet passed the previous ATH, as we did in each of the previous cycles' first phase. Note that the peaks just before Christmas as well as last week were actually higher than the point when we reached the local maximum back in November. This is explained by the fact that the number I am using are the daily volume-weighted prices, not the daily highs. I think daily weighted prices make more sense since they are not swayed by a sudden temporary spike, but rather represent the true trend. As such, we are still in a general upward trend since September 2015.
Overlaying the highlighted points looks like this (actually did this one about a week ago):
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Feq1gIz4.png&t=591&c=jOjW3_koFrvpaA)
DISCUSSION:
I have highlighted what might correspond to areas A and B in the charts, though its not clear. In fact A and B might not be distinct enough, but rather may be the same part. Doesn't really matter. What it would suggest is we still may have a sudden, short-term dip (C) upcoming, somewhere into the low-mid $300s., which would be followed by a rise to above the previous high point of this cycle. At this point, cycle 3 is looking more like cycle 1 than cycle 2.
Now the option with a compressed period, as suggested by RyNinDaCleM:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJBpwZjI.png&t=591&c=D0Szkcw_cfAI2g)
DISCUSSION:
If this scenario plays out, we would be in for a long upcoming period of general sideways movement, with price rise being pretty much done with for the current and upcoming period.
And finally a variant on the last scenario, with a compressed period followed by an elongated period (proposing that we will converge back to the original 900 day cycle):
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fm6tA9Ln.png&t=591&c=FAAPmRDCqycKMA)
DISCUSSION:
This one is interesting, as it would suggest we have just entered into Cycle 3. It would predict that we still have some major price gains to come in the next couple months, including a peak well over the previous ATH.