Bitcoin price cycles - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

hacknoid

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UPDATE:

Just to get back to sanity check in all this redness, the long term trend was saying this is where we should be today, 15 June 2017:

Date Target 80% Lower Bound 15 Jun 2017 $1,285 $ 1028

At current weighted price of $2,337.11, we are at 181.86% of forecast value.

Quote from: hacknoid on May 02, 2017, 07:39:09 AM

Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:28:54 AM

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):

1 Jun 2017 : $1,243 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064 23 Mar 2018 : $2,500 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675

Cool

Here's something also interesting... extrapolating that same price trend back into history, since 12 Feb 2013 (more than 4 years now), we have never been more than 20% below the trendline. Applying a 20% contingency to the above numbers would mean the following potential lower bounds:

Date Target 80% Lower Bound 1 Jun 2017 $1,243 $ 994 1 Jul 2017 $1,335 $ 1,068 1 Aug 2017 $1,436 $ 1,149 1 Sep 2017 $1,546 $ 1,236 1 Oct 2017 $1,660 $ 1,328 1 Nov 2017 $1,786 $ 1,429 1 Dec 2017 $1,918 $ 1,534 1 Jan 2018 $2,064 $ 1,651 23 Mar 2018 $2,500 $ 2,000 8 Jun 2018 $3,000 $ 2,400 8 Oct 2018 $4,006 $ 3,205 1 Jan 2019 $4,899 $ 3,919 1 Jan 2020 $11,630 $ 9,304 1 Jan 2021 $27,675 $22,140

hacknoid

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Quote from: phaddie on June 13, 2017, 07:55:05 PM

Technical analysis on Bitcoin is like technical analysis on penny stocks - worthless as the price can easily be manipulated by a single or a small group of investors, is very subject to news events, and the market is too small and immature.

Ultimately, Bitcoin has been one of the truest experiments in financial circles. Been largely left to evolve on it's own. I don't doubt that whales do buy and sell to affect price, but I don't believe all prices trending is due to that. As I stated in the beginning of the thread, I think there's mostly organic growth, which is why you can see patterns.

it certainly was easier to manipulate years ago, but it's getting harder and harder to do that now.

phaddie

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Technical analysis on Bitcoin is like technical analysis on penny stocks - worthless as the price can easily be manipulated by a single or a small group of investors, is very subject to news events, and the market is too small and immature.

hacknoid

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Quote from: josegines on June 12, 2017, 01:19:11 PM

Quote from: hacknoid on June 12, 2017, 11:33:01 AM

Quote from: josegines on June 10, 2017, 03:48:05 AM

Your decision to eliminate cycle 9 seems right. We are seeing a pump in cycle 11.

Do you think if the pattern is repeated, the climb will end soon? Less than a month?

It's hard to get a good read this time. Believe it or not, this actually looks like it's not a bubble, despite the significant price rise. We haven't seen anywhere near the rapid rises we had in previous bubbles. The longer we move up gradually, or experience sideways movements, the longer this run can continue. So at this point, I see no end in sight. Big question in my mind is what happens as we approach August 1st - we could experience some significant changes as we get closer, maybe part way through July.

Long term, the trend over the last 4 years has been a rise of about 2% per week, on average. Currently we are about 220% of the forecast price of $1276, as predicated by that trend. While high, I don't think that's enough to result in a significant crash. Corrections yes, but growth still quite likely.

Have you updated the cycles to know if this rise is the main bubble of the cycle and how long can it last? 1 month, 2 month...

I've been watching it, but haven't come to any conclusions yet. It's interesting that the significant rise is much more gradual than we've previously had, which I think is good.

We may be on a longer trend up swing, maybe even to the point of being able to sustain that growth long term, possibly indefinitely..? I'll hopefully post some updated analysis in the next week or so.

Raize

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What about the idea that the time period scales as well?

Take cycle 1, toss it out. (period 1)
Take cycles 2-3.5, graph it. (period 1.5)
Take cycles 3.5-5.5, toss it out. (period 2)
Take cycles 5.5-8, graph it. (period 2.5)
Take cycles 8-11, toss it out (period 3)
Start the graph from 11-14.5. (period 3.5)

I think you'll notice similar graphs and you won't be thinking about it all as linearly as we have in the past. I've been pleased with my second model's performance since the tweaks I made, but I think I can't really call it a fractal analysis anymore as I made more subjective changes than I wanted to. I think it's safe to say no one really knows, though I still think we'll hit 10k or more before the next tax season. Part of me thinks it could happen before August 1st and the UASF 148 goes into place, but I guess we'll see.

josegines

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Quote from: hacknoid on June 12, 2017, 11:33:01 AM

Quote from: josegines on June 10, 2017, 03:48:05 AM

Your decision to eliminate cycle 9 seems right. We are seeing a pump in cycle 11.

Do you think if the pattern is repeated, the climb will end soon? Less than a month?

It's hard to get a good read this time. Believe it or not, this actually looks like it's not a bubble, despite the significant price rise. We haven't seen anywhere near the rapid rises we had in previous bubbles. The longer we move up gradually, or experience sideways movements, the longer this run can continue. So at this point, I see no end in sight. Big question in my mind is what happens as we approach August 1st - we could experience some significant changes as we get closer, maybe part way through July.

Long term, the trend over the last 4 years has been a rise of about 2% per week, on average. Currently we are about 220% of the forecast price of $1276, as predicated by that trend. While high, I don't think that's enough to result in a significant crash. Corrections yes, but growth still quite likely.

Have you updated the cycles to know if this rise is the main bubble of the cycle and how long can it last? 1 month, 2 month...

hacknoid

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Quote from: josegines on June 10, 2017, 03:48:05 AM

Your decision to eliminate cycle 9 seems right. We are seeing a pump in cycle 11.

Do you think if the pattern is repeated, the climb will end soon? Less than a month?

It's hard to get a good read this time. Believe it or not, this actually looks like it's not a bubble, despite the significant price rise. We haven't seen anywhere near the rapid rises we had in previous bubbles. The longer we move up gradually, or experience sideways movements, the longer this run can continue. So at this point, I see no end in sight. Big question in my mind is what happens as we approach August 1st - we could experience some significant changes as we get closer, maybe part way through July.

Long term, the trend over the last 4 years has been a rise of about 2% per week, on average. Currently we are about 220% of the forecast price of $1276, as predicated by that trend. While high, I don't think that's enough to result in a significant crash. Corrections yes, but growth still quite likely.

josegines

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Your decision to eliminate cycle 9 seems right. We are seeing a pump in cycle 11.

Do you think if the pattern is repeated, the climb will end soon? Less than a month?

Quote from: hacknoid on January 03, 2017, 07:34:33 PM

Now note that the start and end of each cycle is completely arbitrary at this point, but that doesn't matter when it comes to comparing cycles and supercycles (the length is what matters, and that stays the same). Using this formulation and comparing just the supercycles, it looks like this:

So there you go. I think the cycles still exist. I'll look into playing with the ending points of cycles and seeing what more I can glean, but looks good for now.

Vastraint

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Quote from: usefrees on May 02, 2017, 02:14:40 PM

Quote from: rajasumi3 on April 27, 2017, 02:20:52 PM

Thank you for the price prediction and i hope that the price of bitcoins would reach 2000$ by the end of august,even if it does not then we can expect that the price of bitcoins will only reach upto 2000$ by the end of december.

Bitcoin's price is now skyrocketing. Therefore, it is very likely that bitcoin will reach 2000 dollars soon. If, of course, after such rapid growth there will be no precipitous decline

If there is no attack on the each size of the block increase, I think the price will rise gradually.

cramcram21

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Nicely done there bro thanks for informing us,
Good analysis and pretty much interesting put up so much time and effort in this .

hacknoid

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Quote from: bettercrypto on May 02, 2017, 04:57:10 PM

Wow those predictions are quite good, and some numbers where hit as early as today, though I think todays price is somekind of a pump and I am expecting a price crash later. I am looking forward to see those numbers happen one by one and I believe that this price will be reach earlier than predicted.

I'm pretty sure as well that we will actually hit all those numbers ahead of the forecast time, but as you say, price will likely correct afterward. The trend over the past two years has been quite close to the trend line, but still varied +/- 20% at times, which is actually much less than historical deviation, which is good. (Actually, we've gone up to 40% above the trendline over the past two years, but only corrected back to just under the trendline after).

I'll be happy if the trend continues on this rate, and if we don't drop below 20% below the forecast price on any given date.

bettercrypto

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Wow those predictions are quite good, and some numbers where hit as early as today, though I think todays price is somekind of a pump and I am expecting a price crash later. I am looking forward to see those numbers happen one by one and I believe that this price will be reach earlier than predicted.

Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:28:54 AM

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):

1 Jun 2017 : $1,243 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064 23 Mar 2018 : $2,500 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675

Cool

tn211

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Quote from: usefrees on May 02, 2017, 02:14:40 PM

Quote from: rajasumi3 on April 27, 2017, 02:20:52 PM

Thank you for the price prediction and i hope that the price of bitcoins would reach 2000$ by the end of august,even if it does not then we can expect that the price of bitcoins will only reach upto 2000$ by the end of december.

Bitcoin's price is now skyrocketing. Therefore, it is very likely that bitcoin will reach 2000 dollars soon. If, of course, after such rapid growth there will be no precipitous decline

At this moment we are in a pump phase, but nobody really knows what is happening. There is still a debate about scaling bitcoin with large blocks etc.
So I think this pump will only live short, and we can expect it to go down again.

usefrees

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Quote from: rajasumi3 on April 27, 2017, 02:20:52 PM

Thank you for the price prediction and i hope that the price of bitcoins would reach 2000$ by the end of august,even if it does not then we can expect that the price of bitcoins will only reach upto 2000$ by the end of december.

Bitcoin's price is now skyrocketing. Therefore, it is very likely that bitcoin will reach 2000 dollars soon. If, of course, after such rapid growth there will be no precipitous decline

hacknoid

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Also, in the 1541 days since 12 Feb 2013, we have only had

50 days that were 15% or more below trendline (3% of all the days)
136 days that were 10% or more below trendline (9%)
301 days that were 5% or more below trendline (20%)
382 days that were below trendline (25%)

hacknoid

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Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:28:54 AM

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):

1 Jun 2017 : $1,243 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064 23 Mar 2018 : $2,500 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675

Cool

Here's something also interesting... extrapolating that same price trend back into history, since 12 Feb 2013 (more than 4 years now), we have never been more than 20% below the trendline. Applying a 20% contingency to the above numbers would mean the following potential lower bounds:

Date Target 80% Lower Bound 1 Jun 2017 $1,243 $ 994 1 Jul 2017 $1,335 $ 1,068 1 Aug 2017 $1,436 $ 1,149 1 Sep 2017 $1,546 $ 1,236 1 Oct 2017 $1,660 $ 1,328 1 Nov 2017 $1,786 $ 1,429 1 Dec 2017 $1,918 $ 1,534 1 Jan 2018 $2,064 $ 1,651 23 Mar 2018 $2,500 $ 2,000 8 Jun 2018 $3,000 $ 2,400 8 Oct 2018 $4,006 $ 3,205 1 Jan 2019 $4,899 $ 3,919 1 Jan 2020 $11,630 $ 9,304 1 Jan 2021 $27,675 $22,140

hacknoid

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Quote from: Fakhoury on May 01, 2017, 02:19:21 PM

Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:28:54 AM

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):

1 Jun 2017 : $1,243 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064 23 Mar 2018 : $2,500 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675

Cool

Close friend & brother, Hacknoid

What if I told you that we've hit today (05/01/2017) the 1st of Aug. target and 1st of Sept. on Finex Wink

I think you need to be a better speculator brother Tongue

Hey there, Fakhoury! Hope things are going well with you.

Yes, we definitely are well above the trendline now. However, this may indicate a correction incoming at some point (I'm looking at where Fibonacci numbers play into upper limits), but the trend is still nice! I'm not worried. The nice thing about making predictions like this is that there are three scenarios:

1) The price stays above the trend, and everyone is happy
2) The price stays at the trend, which proves the trend and still looks good
3) The price is below the trend, but the trend shows reason to be optimistic.

So the way I look at it, it's all good news!

Fakhoury

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Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:28:54 AM

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):

1 Jun 2017 : $1,243 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064 23 Mar 2018 : $2,500 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675

Cool

Close friend & brother, Hacknoid

What if I told you that we've hit today (05/01/2017) the 1st of Aug. target and 1st of Sept. on Finex Wink

I think you need to be a better speculator brother Tongue

Grillo

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Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:10:25 AM

It's been a while since I updated the exponential trend, so I took another look at it this week. Here are the previous posts from September and November 2016, for reference:

Quote from: hacknoid on November 22, 2016, 07:33:53 PM

So back in September I posted an updated trend; the repeating cycle pattern may to be breaking down (I'll have to look into it a bit more carefully to see), however, I also posted this:

Quote from: hacknoid on September 16, 2016, 11:09:12 AM

However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):

I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear. This is what you get:

From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle. And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!

And here is the updated graph:

It amazing to me that it's been two years now, and the exponential trend is actually getting closer to being a perfect fit!

In September, the r^2 value was 0.874 for an exponential increase of 0.23% per day.
In November, the r^2 value was 0.898 for an exponential increase of 0.22% per day
Now, in April, the r^2 value is 0.944 for an exponential increase of 0.24% per day

Remember, r^2=1.0 is a perfect fit. So over the past two years we are remarkably close to a constant price increase per day of 0.24% (on average). The fluctuations are actually deviating less from that increasing rate.

Bullish! Cool

Woow that looks really good

york780

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on April 30, 2017, 06:45:22 AM

Quote from: hacknoid on April 30, 2017, 06:28:54 AM

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):

1 Jun 2017 : $1,243 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064 23 Mar 2018 : $2,500 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675

Cool

Now we're talking Grin

I hope your prophecies can become reality bro, good work

I confirm this prediction.
Its known.

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