A short call at $9,500 above the 200 Day MA, have I gone mad? This part was an attempt to look at the bullish case of rallying above the 50 & 200 Day bear cross, but unfortunately we've seen this twice before and it only once gave us the bullish case we were hoping for, the other three cases were bearish. Here is therefore the outlook based on extrapolation of past price history and basic probability (nothing else) of what the bear cross implies, if Bitcoin repeats history.
It's time to talk about the bear cross that was confirmed yesterday, the 50 Day MA crossing the 200 Day MA. 3 out of 4 of Bitcoin's bear crosses have been bearish long-term indicating a further 50% drop in price (2012, 2014 and 2018). In the shorter-term, Bitcoin also twice rallied by 50% in two of these occasions (2014 and 2015) before continuing higher or falling back down. Only 1 out of 4 of these cases it came at the end of the bear market, in 2015. Here are the current statistics and visual representation of the bear crosses: 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2018.
Extrapolating these bear crosses to the current bear cross suggests the following:
- 75% probability of reaching the descending triangle breakdown target of $6,410
- 75% probability of dropping a further 50% before the block halving
- 50% probability of rallying further to $12,000 by the end of October
- 50% probability of double bottom at $3,200, specifically in July 2020
- 25% probability of breaking above $9,410 and never coming back down.
Part 1-9 will otherwise be udpated at the end of the week when BLX is updated. Many parts are still relevant, some less some more, some completed, others inactive etc.
[...]
