Bitcoin Repeating History: TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns - page 4.

YuginKadoya

legendary

Activity: 3038

Merit: 1169

Anything can sure happen, but I really like your research and looking back on the recent charts and recent movements for bitcoin I should say your assumption is pretty detailed it can sure happen for the year of December could be a new All-time high but it could be a red flag as well, But if we passed the 2020 red outbreak we may welcome a real All-time high, well judging by the chart if my theory is correct, But that period of consolidation is very long, Well I can handle the wait but that is how it works, 4 year wait then we might get another bull run for the year 2021 or 2020, in my opinion,

But this is all speculation and my way of analysis the charts.

dragonvslinux

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 2204

Analysis & Status

Similar (9] | Relevant (1) | Irrelevant (0)

Short (7) | Neutral (3) | Long (0)

Active (6) | Completed (4) | Inactive (0)

Updated: December 3rd 2019

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 (Short - Active)

Comment: Price now started to follow similar capitulation as 2018, notably finding support precisely where resistance is forecasted in the future.

Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low (Short - Active)

Comment: Price has returned to the path of a "slow grind" reversal after notably breaking down to similar support levels.

Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown (Short - Re-Active)

Comment: Price has notably returned to the same range as the 2012 descending triangle post-breakdown, suggesting further consildation.

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 (Neutral - Active)

Comment: The Monthly Red 4 candle now looks definitively on the bearish path, implying another 3-5 months of correction.

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction? (Neutral - Active)

Comment: Price accurately followed the path of the "bullish TD 9" with a 1-4 candle correction, but now drifting away from continuation of pattern.

Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses (Short - Active)

Comment: Price followed the 2018 death cross path and more-or-less reaching it's first 75% probability target of $6,410.

Completed Patterns Last Updated: December 3rd 2019

~~Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross~~ (Short - Completed)

Comment: Price broke down after further rejection followed by the bearish crossover as the nail in the coffin, pattern completed.

~~Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern~~ (Neutral - Completed)

Comment: Price notably continued to move downwards after making a final swing high during the Harvest Moon, pattern completed.

~~Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario~~ (Short - Completed)

Comment: The re-test of triangle resistance was delayed but price successfully achieved breakdown target of $6,875, as expected.

~~Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown~~ (Short - Completed)

Comment: Broke down as expected with a delayed but eventual re-test of triangle resistance that held up, price reached target within a <1% margin or error.

Own work: dragononcrypto

dragonvslinux

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 2204

Descending Triangle Breakdowns

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018
Part 2: ~~Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown~~ (C)
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: ~~If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario~~ (C)

Other Indicators

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1
~~Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross~~ (C)
~~Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern~~ (C)
Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses

~~Completed (C) or Inactive (I) Patterns: no longer relevant~~

Click on images for "live" trading view charts or click here for running commentary

Last Updated: December 3rd 2019

Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018

Source: Trading View, September 14th 2019. Screenshot: December 3rd 2019.

The daily bars of the 2018 descending triangle are starting to match the current 2019 descending triangle . If the bearish breakdown also repeats itself in the same way, then this would be the outcome, continuing on from where the charts fit together. Notice how a similar bearish breakdown would take us to the 200 Week MA, given its current trajectory. This would be long-term bullish if this happened, ie finding support again one year later $2K higher. I'd therefore find it unlikely to return to a bear market, or even continued consolidation (which would both be under the 200 Week MA).

~~Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown~~ (C)

Source: Trading View, September 15th 2019. Screenshot: December 3rd 2019.

In 2018 there was an accuracy within 0.25% ($16) of the measured breakdown of the descending triangle . The calculation equaled $3,145 (-48.2%) with the low arriving at $3,129. Based on the 2019 Weekly descending triangle, the measured move of -32% takes the price to $6,410, give or take $16. If this Weekly triangle is breached to the upside I will calculate the Daily descending triangle, that has a reduced measured move.

Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low

Source: Trading View, September 15th 2019. Screenshot: December 3rd 2019.

This worst case scenario extrapolates the second half of the 2014 bear market going into 2020 with ATL at $2,500 and new ATH in November 2021, as well as reaching $30,000 within the same year. This assumes a double bottom will form in April 2020 prior to the halving, followed by 1.5 years of accumulation/consolidation, with a new ATH being made 4 years after the 2017 ATH.

Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown

Source: Trading View, September 16th 2019. Screenshot: Deceber 3rd 2019.

Bitcoin 2012: Descending triangle breakdown to measured target of -20%. Price consolidated in a tight range between $4.21 to $5.30 after disbelief rally. 7 years later, Bitcoin 2019: Descending triangle with measured breakdown target of -32%. Repeating 2012 suggests a consolidation between $6,415 to $9,420 for 1 year.

The time frames are very different, however the emphasis here is on a BTCUSD descending triangle at the top of a disbelief rally from the bottom of the bear market after a 250% (3.5x) rise. The measured move back then was -20% that Bitcoin achieved. The -32% breakdown target after a 340% (4.4x) doesn't seem unreasonable.

Credit to KaliCrypto for the inspiration.

~~Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario~~ (C)

Source: Trading View, September 17th 2019. Screenshot: November 23rd 2019.

I remind you of July 2017 descending triangle that completely overshot the measured target by around 12%. This is for all the traders who claim descending triangles never break to the downside in bull markets at the top of the trend. Bare in mind this was at the top of a full-blown bull market, after reaching a new ATH and 3.2x from April 2017 low. This was otherwise half way through the 2017 bull market from a 2016 low of $150, so roughly 20x. This is yet another example in the repeating Bitcoin history series to show how they do break to the downside, especially after parabolic bull markets.

The extrapolated breakdown comes to a low of $5,350 (-43%) with a measured target on the Daily descending triangle of $6,875 (-27%). Note this is different to the Weekly descending triangle measured target of $6,410 (-32% see Part 2 above), and ~~is therefore dependent on BTC breaking out of the Weekly descending triangle to the upside, while remaining within the Daily triangle, which isn't a lot to ask for~~. [1]

[1] Never happened, BTC broke down from Weekly descending triangle.

Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1

Source: Trading View, September 28th 2019. Screenshot: December 3rd 2019.

With the month of September coming to close in the coming days on a Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 price flip, October will be critical as to whether Bitcoin's monthly candle will close as a green 1 to break the sequential correction, or continue with another 6-8 red candles - as has happened in 2014 and 2018 during bear markets. Note that the Monthly Red 1 candles immediately preceding ATH have been excluded, as previously only have led to a 1-4 candle correction.

As intriguing is that 4 years have now passed since Bitcoin's 2014 Monthly Red 1 candle that led to the 2016-2017 bull market. Additionally, the monthly RSI has broken down from 60 (bullish) to neutral territory, indicating scope for a 7-9 candle correction.

~~Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross~~ (C)

Source: Trading View, October 9th 2019. Screenshot: October 24th 2019.

A quick look at the projected 200 EMA & MA bear-cross on the Daily chart . From the March 16th 2018 bearcross at $8,273, the bullcross didn't occur until over a year later on April 4th 2019 at $4,911 after a 40% correction. The current gain in price since this 2019 bullcross has been 60%. Unless the price moves above $8500 within the coming days, the EMA & MA bear-cross is due to occur by the end of the week.

Many traders complain that due to Bitcoin's volatility the MA bull & bear crosses on longer timeframes are delayed indicators, while others prefer to utilize the EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) for this reason. Here you see the value of trading the 200 EMA & MA bull & bear crosses. Note that following the 2018 bearcross the price first increased by 20% to the 200 Day MA, before signaling the longer-term downtrend.

~~Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern~~ (C)

Source: TradingView, October 13th 2019. Screenshot: October 24th 2019.

Full moons in 2019

May 18 Flower Moon
Jun. 17 Strawberry Moon
Jul. 16 Buck Moon
Aug. 15 Sturgeon Moon
Sep. 14 Harvest Moon
Oct. 13 Hunter's Moon

Source: https://www.space.com/16830-full-moon-calendar.html

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?

Source: TradingView, October 20th 2019. Screenshot: December 3rd 2019.

Next week looks set for a bullish TD Sequential 9 on the Weekly chart that hasn't been seen since July 2018. Back then this led to a 40% increase in the price of Bitcoin followed by 4 months of consolidation. This scenario is labeled "A". Extrapolation C is the inverse of the "bearish" TD 9 in April 2019 that led to a continuation of the bull trend. Hence, C is labeled as the "bullish" TD 9 but would be the most bearish scenario. Scenario B is the extrapolation of the 2018 wedge breakdown, as documented in Part 1 of the Bitcoin repeating history series.

The two year vpvr "average price" is referenced as a key level to break (and close) above at $8376.

Part 10: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses

Source: TradingView, October 27th 2019. Screenshot: December 3rd 2019.

It's time to talk about the bear cross that was confirmed yesterday, the 50 Day MA crossing the 200 Day MA. 3 out of 4 of Bitcoin's bear crosses have been bearish long-term indicating a further 50% drop in price (2011*, 2014 and 2018). In the shorter-term, Bitcoin also twice rallied by 50% in two of these occasions (2014 and 2015) before continuing higher or falling back down. Only 1 out of 4 of these cases it came at the end of the bear market, in 2015. Here are the current statistics and visual representation of the bear crosses: 2011*, 2014, 2015 and 2018.

*Correction: 2011 not 2012, as originally stated

Extrapolating these bear crosses to the current bear cross suggests the following:

75% probability of reaching the descending triangle breakdown target of $6,410
75% probability of dropping a further 50% before the block halving
50% probability of rallying further to $12,000 by the end of October
50% probability of double bottom at $3,200, specifically in July 2020
25% probability of breaking above $9,410 and never coming back down.

If Bitcoin Repeats History?
Descending Triangles Breakdown Summary

2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4)
2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3)
2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 2)
2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1)
2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5)

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.

Own work: dragononcrypto

Topic: Bitcoin Repeating History: TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns - page 4. (Read 1220 times)