Bitcoin Savings & Trust closing! Effect on market?

Peter Todd

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Quote from: sturle on August 19, 2012, 03:41:20 PM

Quote from: yochdog on August 17, 2012, 02:46:43 PM

There could literally be 1,000,000+ coins freed up next week because of this.

PS&T has less than 400,000 (based on interest payments). And no, the coins will not be freed. The coins, or what he had left, were sold seconds after the announcement, and will have to be bought back before he can release them.

This, along with the announcement, triggered a landslide. Or you may call it a bubble burst. Which is fortunate for Pirate, bacause he can now buy back the coins at half price, and have a chance to pay back what he owes. If he makes it, he will profit thousands of BTC in bets against his own default.

Very clever, and not what anyone expected.

Some of the coins may be sold again when released by Pirate, but not that much I think. Pirate may hope for it, and pay out at a slow pace to get cheap coins from old customers selling in panic.

Hey, credit where credit is due: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-bitcoin-savings-and-trust-exit-plan-incentivizing-the-destruction-of-bitcoin-94516

Granted, I didn't realize that just crashing the market might be enough to pull it off. Depends on how much has been transferred into the fund and when those transfers were, but maybe even just doubling his money could make a big difference. After all, it takes 10 weeks of compounding at 7% to double.

Or he's actually figured out how to get those returns...

elux

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http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=500

CoinDiver

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All we have seen so far was a speculatory crash... the real crash is coming. It's not so much of a crash as it is a major inflationary event.

I have to say, this "event" pirate created had me wishing I kept my nut in my gox account. I saw (as many others did) coming with almost 30 minutes to sell... but I couldn't get the network confirmations fast enough. It had already dropped to $10ish by the time I was able to sell... I held off for the temporary recovery, and manage to play the fluctuations well. To date I have regained the USD value of my holdings. Had I kept my BTC in my GOX account... I would have doubled my USD. Oh well... I expect to double or triple my BTC by the end of this. Long term, that's far more significant.

sturle

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https://bitmynt.no

Quote from: yochdog on August 17, 2012, 02:46:43 PM

There could literally be 1,000,000+ coins freed up next week because of this.

PS&T has less than 400,000 (based on interest payments). And no, the coins will not be freed. The coins, or what he had left, were sold seconds after the announcement, and will have to be bought back before he can release them.

This, along with the announcement, triggered a landslide. Or you may call it a bubble burst. Which is fortunate for Pirate, bacause he can now buy back the coins at half price, and have a chance to pay back what he owes. If he makes it, he will profit thousands of BTC in bets against his own default.

Very clever, and not what anyone expected.

Some of the coins may be sold again when released by Pirate, but not that much I think. Pirate may hope for it, and pay out at a slow pace to get cheap coins from old customers selling in panic.

jwzguy

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Quote from: ruski on August 19, 2012, 05:05:16 AM

You're obviously very naive to trading. The belief that everyone else is going to sell, regardless of the reason, is very often the only reason anybody sells. Or even the belief that everyone else believes everyone else is going to sell. Likewise for buying. Either that or you bought at $15+ and you're panicking in denial mode. This cartoon sums it up pretty well.

Wow - what an asshole response. You're obviously very poor at basic reading comprehension. I'm very well aware of the lemming behavior phenomenon. What I asked was why anyone would assume other people are going to sell on this news. Apparently no one has a more likely explanation than what I gave. "The market is silly like that" - right.

My position doesn't change based on this horseshit - don't make me laugh. I was all in long before the price was even half what it is now and I've been mining for 18 months. I've never sold a single btc for USD and am holding very long. I'm sure there will be many more bumps in the road after this one.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: ruski on August 19, 2012, 05:05:16 AM

The belief that everyone else is going to sell, regardless of the reason, is very often the only reason anybody sells. Or even the belief that everyone else believes everyone else is going to sell. Likewise for buying. Either that or you bought at $15+ and you're panicking in denial mode.

Exactly.
So the actual contents of the news is irrelevant. People tend to attach far to much meaning to the market movements.
There is a general trend structure, and any suitable trigger event sets those acummulated forces to move.

Bitcoin Oz

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Wat

Quote from: VelvetLeaf on August 19, 2012, 06:05:58 AM

Quote from: 420 on August 19, 2012, 05:36:37 AM

how long did bitcoin savings and trust operate?

From November 04, 2011, 06:14:09 AM to today, around 9 months.
Chart courtesy of Joric & ruski.

I know why he doesnt have time for investing anymore...pirate had a baby Cheesy

VelvetLeaf

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Quote from: 420 on August 19, 2012, 05:36:37 AM

how long did bitcoin savings and trust operate?

From November 04, 2011, 06:14:09 AM to today, around 9 months.
Chart courtesy of Joric & ruski.

420

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how long did bitcoin savings and trust operate?

ruski

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Quote from: jwzguy on August 18, 2012, 05:28:22 PM

Quote from: Ichthyo on August 18, 2012, 05:15:57 PM

eveyone knows that the BTC rate went to high too fast. The general uptrend might be ok, but eveyone expects corrections. Thus, the actual content of the announcement isn't substancial. Any news of some significance to BTC which isn't outright positive could trigger a correction.

The price of BTC went up at exactly the speed it needed to in order to fulfill the market orders which were placed. So your "everyone" obviously can't include all the people who bought. It also can't really include any (rational) people who didn't sell.

In order for this news to be considered an indicator of a downturn, I'm assuming people have some scenario in mind which would lead to that downturn. I'm just asking what it is, as my best guesses still don't seem very likely.

You're obviously very naive to trading. The belief that everyone else is going to sell, regardless of the reason, is very often the only reason anybody sells. Or even the belief that everyone else believes everyone else is going to sell. Likewise for buying. Either that or you bought at $15+ and you're panicking in denial mode. This cartoon sums it up pretty well.

The general trend is upward anyway.

finkleshnorts

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Quote from: VelvetLeaf on August 19, 2012, 04:45:39 AM

From what I watch and read from the chat and forum, people that hold big amount of BTC (2k - 20k) are a bit reluctant to dump, as it'll hurt their investment.
But for normal people that hold small - medium amount of BTC (10 - 500 BTC), they don't have any problem dumping it to the market now to get fiat, now that BTST is closing and bitcoin is trending down.

Since there's no more incentive to get 28% profit per month, people will stop buying bitcoin in large amount.
At some point people will learn to cut loses and dump anyway when we reach "that price" level.
I've seen 10k ask order moved and eat most of buy order that's in the way a few hours ago.

The real dump party will start when pirate is giving back everyone's coin.
At least 10-25% coin that they get will get dumped just in case bitcoin get down further.

Exactly. But, many people don't mind dabbling in a little daytrading every now and again (especially in times like this) with a certain percentage of their bitcoin holdings. I like having USD and bitcoins, so it's kind of a win-win for me as long as I get to keep most of my coins in the end. Whatever USD I'm left with will either sit and wait to buy back in or it will go towards my IRL loans. The goal is to come out with more bitcoins in the end, but in the meantime I will keep earning and spending USD.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: augustocroppo on August 19, 2012, 03:39:42 AM

Quote from: finkleshnorts on August 17, 2012, 02:16:56 PM

Since BTCST is now closing, what does it mean for speculators?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-is-closing-101339

From http://iheartwallstreet.com/2012/03/22/why-didnt-you-sell/

I had a really good laugh reading through this. Grin

blazing

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I don't think the price manipulation is over yet...surely not before pirate pays out his lenders.
As you said price will drop after he pays out but we may see another spike before he does.

VelvetLeaf

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From what I watch and read from the chat and forum, people that hold big amount of BTC (2k - 20k) are a bit reluctant to dump, as it'll hurt their investment.
But for normal people that hold small - medium amount of BTC (10 - 500 BTC), they don't have any problem dumping it to the market now to get fiat, now that BTST is closing and bitcoin is trending down.

Since there's no more incentive to get 28% profit per month, people will stop buying bitcoin in large amount.
At some point people will learn to cut loses and dump anyway when we reach "that price" level.
I've seen 10k ask order moved and eat most of buy order that's in the way a few hours ago.

The real dump party will start when pirate is giving back everyone's coin.
At least 10-25% coin that they get will get dumped just in case bitcoin get down further.

augustocroppo

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Quote from: finkleshnorts on August 17, 2012, 02:16:56 PM

Since BTCST is now closing, what does it mean for speculators?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-is-closing-101339

From http://iheartwallstreet.com/2012/03/22/why-didnt-you-sell/

VelvetLeaf

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Quote from: finkleshnorts on August 19, 2012, 03:21:56 AM

Because I knew everyone else would sell. Markets are silly like that.

+1 for being honest.

Quote from: jwzguy on August 18, 2012, 02:04:29 PM

Why did you guys sell on news of this announcement?

Jokes aside, you should know that every $2 increment, there will be a correction.
After bitcoin passed $12 because of the bug on MtGox and there's no correction at all, a "correction" at $15 is suitable.
Also, $15 is half of $30's bubble.
If enough people think the same things, a "correction" will happen.

finkleshnorts

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Quote from: jwzguy on August 18, 2012, 02:04:29 PM

Why did you guys sell on news of this announcement?

Because I knew everyone else would sell. Markets are silly like that.

jwzguy

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Quote from: Ichthyo on August 18, 2012, 05:15:57 PM

eveyone knows that the BTC rate went to high too fast. The general uptrend might be ok, but eveyone expects corrections. Thus, the actual content of the announcement isn't substancial. Any news of some significance to BTC which isn't outright positive could trigger a correction.

The price of BTC went up at exactly the speed it needed to in order to fulfill the market orders which were placed. So your "everyone" obviously can't include all the people who bought. It also can't really include any (rational) people who didn't sell.

In order for this news to be considered an indicator of a downturn, I'm assuming people have some scenario in mind which would lead to that downturn. I'm just asking what it is, as my best guesses still don't seem very likely.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Quote from: proudhon on August 18, 2012, 07:42:10 AM

Well, gosh, now that bitcoinica is gone and pirate's shutting down his operation, where are we all going to centralize our decentralized currency?

Mtgox.

Ichthyo

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eveyone knows that the BTC rate went to high too fast. The general uptrend might be ok, but eveyone expects corrections. Thus, the actual content of the announcement isn't substancial. Any news of some significance to BTC which isn't outright positive could trigger a correction.

Topic: Bitcoin Savings & Trust closing! Effect on market? (Read 15681 times)