Topic: Bitcoin Savings & Trust closing! Effect on market? - page 3. (Read 15721 times)

Pirate reality A: He is ponzi.
Pirate reality B: He caused this crash by selling btcst holdings, anticipating further crash and then buying back btcst holdings, and returning funds at profit.
Pirate reality C: He simply dissolved btcst and other btc holders sold to cause this crash.

If (further) panic selling occurs: Price will fall to 10 area. If he doesn't return funds within week, then (A) is confirmed and price will actually rise slightly as btcst losers will grudgingly dig into pockets to rebuild some bitcoin savings (gamblers gonna gamble). Counterbalanced by a bit of selling from safe btc players with low/zero btcst exposure who expect lessened btc demand with loss of bitcoin's #1 investment, and general loss of confidence. Price will stay in high singles or low doubles for a bit, then resume rise on heels of overall strength/SR growth/dev stability. If he does return funds, then (C) is likely true, we will see a hesitant rise from general relief that btcst was legitimate, counterbalanced by profit taking.

If price rebounds and ONLY THEN does he begin to return funds then (B) is likely true, and we will see a slight decrease in price as profit taking occurs, counterbalanced by relief that btcst was actually legitimate this whole time. Pirate profits, everyone wins except those who sold into his trap.

If price rebounds from present point (12.5ish), and he doesn't return funds, (A) is confirmed and we see rapid buy-up as btcst losers panic buy and btcst abstainers see that bitcoin is so strong that the dissolution of its #1 investment opportunity isn't enough to cause sustained crash. If he does return full funds, then (C) is true, rapid buy-up occurs for same reasons as above, but counterbalanced by profit taking. If he returns partial funds, then we know (B) is true, and the result is a buy-up with slight profit taking counterbalance.

General problem however, is that if he is legitimate, why stop? Some people have suggested that recent price run-up has made his secret operations unprofitable, but what possible operation benefits from low bitcoin price? I have always held the position that it is just as likely that pirate is running a ponzi as he is running a very profitable money laundering business, positions that would certainly explain his secrecy. However, now that he has stopped, it makes me think it more likely it was just a well orchestrated ponzi, because I cannot think of a reason why he would stop otherwise.

Thoughts?

This ignores those who sold emotionally in anticipation of profit taking by pirateat40's lenders. The market today spoke volumes.

Note the sarcasm eyes.

Not to me... if you just lost a ton of Bitcoin it is more likely to become an emotional decision, not a rational one.  You won't buy back your coins, you'll quit the scene and pretend to your family and friends that bitcoin never happened.

This actually make a lot of sense; however I very much doubt pirateat40 will pay everyone back on Monday as he said in his thread that the closure of BST will take about a week https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.605957


It is not unreasonable to expect that some of his lenders will decide to take some profits; however there also remains the possibility that pirateat40 is counting on this profit taking in order to buy BTC to pay the rest of his lenders off so there is a chance also of a short squeeze developing later in the week. In short a high degree of volatility. In the unlikely event of a default it would be short term bullish since some profit taking by pirateat40's lenders has already been discounted by the market.  

So if they get their BTC back they will run to cash, but if they don't they'll buy up BTC... makes perfect sense .

The funny thing is:

If he can actually return all his debts next week (and we should know by Monday) price goes down because 200k-500k BTC are back in the hands of investors and the only way they can take from there is being converted back to USD. Maybe not all of them but at least some 10%.
If he defaults/runs off/gets hacked (lol), bitcoin price goes up, because those funds will be held some time before they are dumped on the market by whom ever (probably pirate) some month/years in the future. Meanwhile they are not available on the market for supply. Duped investors may want to restock on BTC and pirate may even try to buy more BTC in order to serve some of his liabilities.

My logic is this (whether flawed or not.)  pirate was asking for more bitcoins.  pirate would only ask for more bitcoins if he needed more to remain profitable.  If he has USD and bought as the price was going up he would have bought for a loss (since his strategy is to short bitcoins).  He needs to bring the price down so he can buy more bitcoins and return the bitcoins to his investors.  But if his attempt of creating a panic sell fails then he won't be able to buy more coins back without a loss.

where is the logic in this? he could have also been buying as the price crawled back up.

Now that BS&T is shutting down, we might get to know what the hell pirateat40 was doing with all that money...

Anyone know how big those dumps were? It is my guess that Pirate announced the closing and started the dump trend, in hopes to cause a mass panic sell followed by a large rebuying. Looks like it didn't work very well if that's the case.

I would the underlying uptrend is still valid. This correction is actually a positive sign, because is throttles the rally a bit. This way we can even go higher then we ever would before. This is a great buying opportunity.
Maybe wait for Monday,
if good news from Pirate: Wait for second panic sell and aim for where 100k BTC can drop price to (probably in the 8th $s)
If bad news (no or "delayed" refunding): BUY

If pirate did indeed sell, and it rebounds back to 15 he is screwed, big time.

Not everyone reads every thread. Getting the word out there isn't a bad thing unless you are trying to hide something and stay under the radar.

Good for you. Glad you are honest....can't say the same for pirate.

Because it is redundant and pointless to post the same thing everywhere.  I increased my exposure today after the announcement by paying out the remaining lenders in my passthrough from my personal funds.

If this price drop was another short pirate orchestration....then that´s absolutely genius

Is it really?  I would have guessed there would be these possibilities:

1. See ya!  (if you can find me)

2. Due to market conditions I lost X% of your principal (recognize I NEVER said it was without risk).  So your payout will be commensurate.

His closing post contains a promise to pay in full plus interest (ok its not totally cleanly said, but regardless).  Could that be used against him legally... as opposed to email #2.

The professionalism here actually surprised me.  I always assumed that the Vegas meeting with his cronies was to orchestrate the closeout and getaway plans.  Some things can only be done face 2 face.  If we find it is a ponzi, this posting is a fascinating insight into these people's psychology.

Why does it matter?

How much BTC do you have invested with Pirate or a PPT?

Roger, no exposure at all. BTC by itself has been exceeding 7% a week, why take the risk of being scammed?

Why post the same thing on every thread?