Bitcoin Savings & Trust closing! Effect on market? - page 5.

Spekulatius

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Quote from: finkleshnorts on August 17, 2012, 01:16:56 PM

Since BTCST is now closing, what does it mean for speculators?

You see it right now: We are going down, because people want to cash out in fears of BS&T default scenarios. Price will continue to plummet till Monday, if no good news till then even further. Also, More bitcoin on the market mean, more selling activity after lenders are payed back. Prepare for 8$ next week.

bitcoinbear

hero member

Activity: 518

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Quote from: yochdog on August 17, 2012, 02:24:38 PM

Quote from: P4man on August 17, 2012, 02:21:37 PM

Quote from: bitcoinbear on August 17, 2012, 02:13:59 PM

Assuming he does pay everything back ...

..

All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.

Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought.

yes, that would be the brutal thing. Leverage all your fiat to buy high yielding BTC......aaaaaand it's gone. That would remove a lot of buyers from ever coming back.

Like they always say, "Don't invest more than you are prepared to lose"

I have no direct exsposure to Pirate, anybody else clean of this mess with me?

wachtwoord

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and possibly live under a bridge Cheesy

yochdog

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Quote from: P4man on August 17, 2012, 02:21:37 PM

Quote from: bitcoinbear on August 17, 2012, 02:13:59 PM

Assuming he does pay everything back ...

..

All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.

Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought.

yes, that would be the brutal thing. Leverage all your fiat to buy high yielding BTC......aaaaaand it's gone. That would remove a lot of buyers from ever coming back.

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: bitcoinbear on August 17, 2012, 02:13:59 PM

Assuming he does pay everything back ...

..

All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.

Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

so.. he does not have the money to pay out to everyone who wants it right now. shocking. not.
lets see how quickly he can "get the money back" from whatever he was doing.
i am going to bet this will get ugly as the week goes by and people do not have their btc.

yochdog

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Activity: 2044

Merit: 1000

Quote from: bitcoinbear on August 17, 2012, 02:13:59 PM

Assuming he does pay everything back ...

All the investors who had depoits now have btc, they want to cash out, this will drive down price.

How much of the recent rise in price has been people bringing in money to invest in Pirate? Now that he is closing up shop, they will stop bring in money, this will also drive price down.
Since the price will stop rising, many miners/speculators will try to sell quickly to get the highest rate on their bitcoins, this will also cause the price to go down.

Dropping price will cause panic sells, this will also push down the price.

The sudden announcement from Pirate causes uncertainty in the market, this causes people to more cautiously invest, this allows the price to drop precipitiously.

All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.

been saying this for a while.

bitcoinbear

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Assuming he does pay everything back ...

All the investors who had depoits now have btc, they want to cash out, this will drive down price.

How much of the recent rise in price has been people bringing in money to invest in Pirate? Now that he is closing up shop, they will stop bring in money, this will also drive price down.

Since the price will stop rising, many miners/speculators will try to sell quickly to get the highest rate on their bitcoins, this will also cause the price to go down.

Dropping price will cause panic sells, this will also push down the price.

The sudden announcement from Pirate causes uncertainty in the market, this causes people to more cautiously invest, this allows the price to drop precipitiously.

All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.

SaintFlow

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

The first is by definition not flawed.

The fact that he does not dump the coins on before weekend is a pure gentleman's act.

finkleshnorts

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

The fact that he is announcing a closure says a lot. I can't see a Ponzi announcing that he is sending back all new deposits.

Either way, I think we will see a big drop in price. Many of those coins coming back will be sold. If they don't come back, bad press and the newcomers rallying will start second guessing. I'm trying to sell.

VelvetLeaf

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Panic selling incoming in 3..., 4...

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Pirate was essentially a bear play. It made a lot of sense when the price of BTC was falling at over 7% a week with respect to USD. What made Bitcoin Savings & Trust unsustainable in the end was not the interest rate but the rising BTC / USD exchange rate!

If Pirate completes the closure of Bitcoin Savings & Trust as he has indicated this will be a class act on his part. As far as the impact on the bitcoin market it self, what we are witnessing is a very large and deep pocketed bear gracefully leave the market in the face of the bulls. I will leave it up to the reader to form their own conclusions.

URSAY

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Place your bets...

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=537

Herodes

hero member

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Merit: 1000

Heh.. did anyone do the actual math ?

Will be interesting to see when some people don't get paid on this one...

Faraday

sr. member

Activity: 240

Merit: 250

Quote from: waspoza on August 17, 2012, 01:45:59 PM

So he lost 5000 bet?

No.

The reason he made the bet was because he was planning to shutdown all along. He wins the bet as long as all funds owed are returned.

SaintFlow

sr. member

Activity: 476

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The first is by definition not flawed.

If you believe he will repay you can make 10% on pass throughs. Panic selling is occurring there.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: waspoza on August 17, 2012, 01:45:59 PM

So he lost 5000 bet?

When he pays back within two weeks he will have won.

Quote from: yochdog on August 17, 2012, 01:46:43 PM

There could literally be 1,000,000+ coins freed up next week because of this.

Price will decline as those coins are cashed out on profit taking. Think of all the people who leveraged up through buying as much BTC as they could with fiat in order to re-invest at 7% weekly. Now that insane demand will be removed, and further, these individuals will be wanting to cash out after making huge returns.

Sounds very plausible. Many won't cash out though (leveraged people)

yochdog

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There could literally be 1,000,000+ coins freed up next week because of this.

Price will decline as those coins are cashed out on profit taking. Think of all the people who leveraged up through buying as much BTC as they could with fiat in order to re-invest at 7% weekly. Now that insane demand will be removed, and further, these individuals will be wanting to cash out after making huge returns.

waspoza

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Firstbits: 1waspoza

So he lost 5000 bet?

mccorvic

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

If the withdrawl process is without drama, price will go up. This will prove to many that bitcoin is used by more than just scammers.

Topic: Bitcoin Savings & Trust closing! Effect on market? - page 5. (Read 15730 times)