Topic: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View - page 6. (Read 19401 times)

No, Synaptic, let's stay with the same post and examine that, for the sake of clarity.

Quote from: Yeti on July 16, 2011, 07:14:06 PM

A number of people have mentioned how great BTC are for international currency transport and exchange and they're correct, though this use doesn't require any valuation higher than relative parity with the strongest currencies; In fact it still works perfectly fine at 10:1 or even 100:1, the only reason for it to be higher is greedy miners hoarding to artificially restrict supply.

What are you saying here exactly? That for international currency transfer and exchange we don't need a BTC value of more than $1? That's a total of $6m?

Explain.

Look I'm getting really fucking tired of your inability to comprehend the very words you're reading...

This isn't about you.

Well I'm sorry that I have no interest in throughly explaining myself to someone who doesn't understand what I've already written. I hope that someone else wouldn't mind "translating" or elaborating for you.

Let's me see here...

It seems that in order to make OP's assertion valid, one must simply rephrase "The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion." as "The long term trend for fiat/bitcoin exchange rates is contraction, not expansion."

See, we no longer talking about bitcoin's value--only about the ability of market makers (like MtGox crew, etc) to maintain fiat/bitcoin current exchange rates for more than a month or two. OP is right, bitcoin's true value is WAY BELOW current exchange rates due to bitcoin not having any economy to call Home. So, stop worrying about the exchange rates that market makers are feeding you every day. Instead, start offering your bitcoins to merchants... Let's see if they do value BTC more than their local fiat currencies.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

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Nah, I won't. Let's play this "Ponzi scheme" a little longer. C'mon, 60,000 accounts on Mt. Gox?! Any decent stock has more investors. I think we can bring in a million more people before it crashes.

Seriously though, with all the uncertainties here in Europe and in the US, all it takes for a lot of people to lose faith in their currency and pump at least some of their money into bitcoins are headlines like
"Republicans c***block debt ceiling compromise! USA defaults on 3-month bonds!"
or
"Financial aid package for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy costs x trillion €, driving inflation up 10%!"

If you can then cleverly convince people to put their money in bitcoins, it will take off. Just like the bucket of shit you wish to promote or cigarettes became the de-facto currency in post-WWII-Germany.

Your blind faith in the weakness of world economies is cute, yet still infantile.

Fortunately the world financial markets aren't dying or in danger of imminent catastrophic collapse. Indeed, the developed world will continue plodding onwards just as it has for hundreds of years, allowing even the lowest classes some of the highest standards of living in the world, with plenty to eat, drink and be merry about.

And diehard bitcoiners will lube up for another wank with sugar-plum visions dancing in their silly little minds, of fire and brimstone bearing down upon fiat windmills...

Yeti

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Firstbits: 1yetiax

Nah, I won't. Let's play this "Ponzi scheme" a little longer. C'mon, 60,000 accounts on Mt. Gox?! Any decent stock has more investors. I think we can bring in a million more people before it crashes.

Seriously though, with all the uncertainties here in Europe and in the US, all it takes for a lot of people to lose faith in their currency and pump at least some of their money into bitcoins are headlines like
"Republicans c***block debt ceiling compromise! USA defaults on 3-month bonds!"
or
"Financial aid package for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy costs x trillion €, driving inflation up 10%!"

If you can then cleverly convince people to put their money in bitcoins, it will take off. Just like the bucket of shit you wish to promote or cigarettes became the de-facto currency in post-WWII-Germany.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Yeti on July 16, 2011, 07:00:39 PM

Oh great master! As you have shown through 13 pages of thread, your wisdom of the things to come exceeds every mean known to man. So please have mercy on us blissful trifling souls and tell us what to do!

Should I sell all my coins now, while I can?

Sure, go ahead.

EDIT: Then again, maybe you should buy more.

Yeti

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Activity: 112

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Firstbits: 1yetiax

Oh great master! As you have shown through 13 pages of thread, your wisdom of the things to come exceeds every mean known to man. So please have mercy on us blissful trifling souls and tell us what to do!

Should I sell all my coins now, while I can?

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 05:31:05 PM

Any valuation above relative parity with USD/EUR/AUD/GBP etc. is extremely suspect as there are absolutely zero real reasons for it to be above parity.

A number of people have mentioned how great BTC are for international currency transport and exchange and they're correct, though this use doesn't require any valuation higher than relative parity with the strongest currencies; In fact it still works perfectly fine at 10:1 or even 100:1, the only reason for it to be higher is greedy miners hoarding to artificially restrict supply.

It's just patently absurd to say that BTC has any value above the strong fiat currencies that have the GDP of ENTIRE FUCKING NATIONS behind their value, and bitcoin has absolutely jack shit. The only reason for it to hold parity is for conveniences sake anyway.

Okay, I see why you get to this conclusion. You are not aware of or don't understand the Equation of Exchange of monetary theory, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange

M*V = P*Q

Since money supply, M, is much smaller for BTC, than for USD, a much smaller demand is needed to have 1 unit of the BTC currency be worth more than 1 unit of the USD currency. If demand increases, V increases, and if M is constant, then the price P*Q will increase too. Now try to keep V constant and decrease M from the USD money supply 850.7 billion USD (2008) to the bitcoin money supply (8.6 million BTC). Then price P*Q must decrease 98,918 times. So if V for USD is more than 98,918 times V for BTC, then 1 BTC will represent more purchase power than 1 USD.

The price of BTC relative to USD doesn't matter to the buyer. What matters is what the buyer believes he can buy for 1 BTC either now or in the future compared to what he can buy for the USD that he pays for 1 BTC. If buyers pay more USD for 1 BTC, the bitcoin businesses will just lower their prices to remain competitive.

So rather than blaming BTC for being priced too high in USD, blame the Federal Reserve for inflating the money supply. The devaluation of USD in the last 3 years alone has caused BTC to double in value against USD.

Casper

"So rather than blaming BTC for being priced too high in USD, blame the Federal Reserve for inflating the money supply. The devaluation of USD in the last 3 years alone has caused BTC to double in value against USD."

LOL, I love how you can wholly debase your entire post merely by following up with this little gem.

Hilarious.

Apart from that, you fail to address the fact that the demand for BTC now is based solely on hype as I've made clean many times already. You erroneously assume that I don't understand WHY bitcoin even has a market price. I understand better than the lions share of posters on this entire forum EXACTLY why bitcoin enjoys it's present market value. I also understand that the valuation is artificial and doomed to steadily contract as the hype wanes and the bag holders are leftto wallow in their poor investment vehicle.

And I don't blame the Fed for anything. Though I don't appreciate their monetary policy, I do realize they know much better than I or anyone else on this backwater forum how to run an economy the size of the United States. Fuck, people here don't even understand how a piddly little market like bitcoin functions, yet purport to understand how to solve all of the world's financial problems with their little hobby.

Just to put the icing on the cake though, USD inflation means absolutely FUCK ALL in relation to BTC anything, but I appreciate your ignorance.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 05:24:23 PM

No, Synaptic, let's stay with the same post and examine that, for the sake of clarity.

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 05:24:23 PM

A number of people have mentioned how great BTC are for international currency transport and exchange and they're correct, though this use doesn't require any valuation higher than relative parity with the strongest currencies; In fact it still works perfectly fine at 10:1 or even 100:1, the only reason for it to be higher is greedy miners hoarding to artificially restrict supply.

What are you saying here exactly? That for international currency transfer and exchange we don't need a BTC value of more than $1? That's a total of $6m?

Explain.

Look I'm getting really fucking tired of your inability to comprehend the very words you're reading...

This isn't about you.

Well I'm sorry that I have no interest in throughly explaining myself to someone who doesn't understand what I've already written. I hope that someone else wouldn't mind "translating" or elaborating for you.

flug

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Activity: 280

Merit: 250

No, Synaptic, let's stay with the same post and examine that, for the sake of clarity.

Quote from: YoYa on July 16, 2011, 05:22:38 PM

A number of people have mentioned how great BTC are for international currency transport and exchange and they're correct, though this use doesn't require any valuation higher than relative parity with the strongest currencies; In fact it still works perfectly fine at 10:1 or even 100:1, the only reason for it to be higher is greedy miners hoarding to artificially restrict supply.

What are you saying here exactly? That for international currency transfer and exchange we don't need a BTC value of more than $1? That's a total of $6m?

Explain.

Look I'm getting really fucking tired of your inability to comprehend the very words you're reading...

This isn't about you.

Synaptic

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 05:07:05 PM

You look at it from a naively optimistic point of view, as that of a child imagining what a superhero might eat for breakfast.

The correct way to approach it is "At 1:1 USD/BTC, which places the total Bitcoin market cap at $6m of value, what market forces produce enough value to support that price?"

The answer as it's been for the past 3.5 months is hype. As the hype has faded and reality sets in and the price deflates as I'm explaining to you it will, even at $6m of value the answer is: Practically Nothing.

See, Bitcoins basically need the equivalent of a "GDP" to sustain it's value. There is no "GDP" behind Bitcoins now, nor will any "GDP" be growing within 6 months, or a year, or likely ever, for all the reasons I've listed across many threads over the past 2 months.

But I'll turn it over to you and that other genius that started posting:

Given a 1:1 parity with the dollar, what in all of the God's Hells impart $6m of market value?

Don't spout off bullshit about people paying what they think it's worth: that's speculation, and speculation isn't value...

Slow down a bit......

GDP wise, there is no nation Wink

But ignoring that, BTC has generated economic activity around it's existence. You mightn't place much value on it, but people creating the various sites for trade and exchange of varying goods and services is what gives bitcoin it's economy, and that's an important point of this whole exercise, people are essentially working and producing in exchange for BTC, essentially giving it value.

All currencies start out as nothing, it's the work of the people behind the nations currency that gives it value. You can argue that bitcoin is over valued, but certainly not of no value. I don't think it unreasonable that bitcoin has generated more then 6 million usd of economic activity by now.

That's why I said "GDP," as a turn of phrase.

I'm not saying there's no Bitcoin economy AT ALL, just not enough of an economy to justify anywhere NEAR the current trade price, now or in the near future.

Hence, my entire premise that the market value will continue to contract as the artificial inflation subsides and takes BTC back to where it belongs.

Edward50

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just because the last bitcoin sold for $13.5 does not mean bitcoin is worth $13.5 x 6million. only say 10,000 would say at $13.5, most would sell far below that.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

No, Synaptic, let's stay with the same post and examine that, for the sake of clarity.

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 05:07:05 PM

A number of people have mentioned how great BTC are for international currency transport and exchange and they're correct, though this use doesn't require any valuation higher than relative parity with the strongest currencies; In fact it still works perfectly fine at 10:1 or even 100:1, the only reason for it to be higher is greedy miners hoarding to artificially restrict supply.

What are you saying here exactly? That for international currency transfer and exchange we don't need a BTC value of more than $1? That's a total of $6m?

Explain.

Look I'm getting really fucking tired of your inability to comprehend the very words you're reading...

YoYa

hero member

Activity: 809

Merit: 501

Always verify deals with me through my public key!

You look at it from a naively optimistic point of view, as that of a child imagining what a superhero might eat for breakfast.

The correct way to approach it is "At 1:1 USD/BTC, which places the total Bitcoin market cap at $6m of value, what market forces produce enough value to support that price?"

The answer as it's been for the past 3.5 months is hype. As the hype has faded and reality sets in and the price deflates as I'm explaining to you it will, even at $6m of value the answer is: Practically Nothing.

See, Bitcoins basically need the equivalent of a "GDP" to sustain it's value. There is no "GDP" behind Bitcoins now, nor will any "GDP" be growing within 6 months, or a year, or likely ever, for all the reasons I've listed across many threads over the past 2 months.

But I'll turn it over to you and that other genius that started posting:

Given a 1:1 parity with the dollar, what in all of the God's Hells impart $6m of market value?

Don't spout off bullshit about people paying what they think it's worth: that's speculation, and speculation isn't value...

Slow down a bit......

GDP wise, there is no nation Wink

But ignoring that, BTC has generated economic activity around it's existence. You mightn't place much value on it, but people creating the various sites for trade and exchange of varying goods and services is what gives bitcoin it's economy, and that's an important point of this whole exercise, people are essentially working and producing in exchange for BTC, essentially giving it value.

All currencies start out as nothing, it's the work of the people behind the nations currency that gives it value. You can argue that bitcoin is over valued, but certainly not of no value. I don't think it unreasonable that bitcoin has generated more then 6 million usd of economic activity by now.

flug

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Activity: 280

Merit: 250

No, Synaptic, let's stay with the same post and examine that, for the sake of clarity.

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 04:50:03 PM

A number of people have mentioned how great BTC are for international currency transport and exchange and they're correct, though this use doesn't require any valuation higher than relative parity with the strongest currencies; In fact it still works perfectly fine at 10:1 or even 100:1, the only reason for it to be higher is greedy miners hoarding to artificially restrict supply.

What are you saying here exactly? That for international currency transfer and exchange we don't need a BTC value of more than $1? That's a total of $6m?

Explain.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 04:39:44 PM

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 04:35:21 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 04:01:36 PM

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 03:42:44 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 02:59:37 PM

I'm not predicting the long term success of bitcoin I'm telling you that the market value relative to other currencies will continue to shrink until it reaches it's highest sustainable point somewhere below $10 and above $0.01. You're just twisting my observations relative to your own worthless antithetical agenda.

Bitcoin can be "successful" by a number of measures, yet still have little to no value in real currencies.

How do you arrive at those numbers?

Any valuation above relative parity with USD/EUR/AUD/GBP etc. is extremely suspect as there are absolutely zero real reasons for it to be above parity.

Another Godlike assertion, but no evidence whatsoever.

To repeat. How did you arrive at those numbers?

And after you've answered this question, I'll repeat the other questions that you've carefully avoided. One at a time though.

I'll just say:

Did you even bother to read the rest of the post?

Idiot...

Yes, I did read the rest of the post. How did you arrive at those numbers?

...

OK, let's start with this. At USD/BTC=1, the total value of bitcoins would currently be $6m. What are the pressures limiting the total value of bitcoins at $6m? What's to stop the total value of bitcoins going to $600m? or $6bn?

You look at it from a naively optimistic point of view, as that of a child imagining what a superhero might eat for breakfast.

The correct way to approach it is "At 1:1 USD/BTC, which places the total Bitcoin market cap at $6m of value, what market forces produce enough value to support that price?"

The answer as it's been for the past 3.5 months is hype. As the hype has faded and reality sets in and the price deflates as I'm explaining to you it will, even at $6m of value the answer is: Practically Nothing.

See, Bitcoins basically need the equivalent of a "GDP" to sustain it's value. There is no "GDP" behind Bitcoins now, nor will any "GDP" be growing within 6 months, or a year, or likely ever, for all the reasons I've listed across many threads over the past 2 months.

But I'll turn it over to you and that other genius that started posting:

Given a 1:1 parity with the dollar, what in all of the Gods' Hells impart $6m of market value?

Don't spout off bullshit about people paying what they think it's worth: that's speculation, and speculation isn't value...

Synaptic

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flug

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 04:39:44 PM

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 04:35:21 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 04:01:36 PM

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 03:42:44 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 02:59:37 PM

I'm not predicting the long term success of bitcoin I'm telling you that the market value relative to other currencies will continue to shrink until it reaches it's highest sustainable point somewhere below $10 and above $0.01. You're just twisting my observations relative to your own worthless antithetical agenda.

Bitcoin can be "successful" by a number of measures, yet still have little to no value in real currencies.

How do you arrive at those numbers?

Any valuation above relative parity with USD/EUR/AUD/GBP etc. is extremely suspect as there are absolutely zero real reasons for it to be above parity.

Another Godlike assertion, but no evidence whatsoever.

To repeat. How did you arrive at those numbers?

And after you've answered this question, I'll repeat the other questions that you've carefully avoided. One at a time though.

I'll just say:

Did you even bother to read the rest of the post?

Idiot...

Yes, I did read the rest of the post. How did you arrive at those numbers?

...

OK, let's start with this. At USD/BTC=1, the total value of bitcoins would currently be $6m. What are the pressures limiting the total value of bitcoins at $6m? What's to stop the total value of bitcoins going to $600m? or $6bn?

RogerR

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Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 04:27:08 PM

Quote from: RogerR on July 16, 2011, 04:16:12 PM

Okay Bob. May I call you Bob? I like to call you Bob.

Here's the deal. Bitcoin has no inherent value. It is a merchantilistic item of trade for whom people are willing to pay a price. The total of all those prices willing to be paid somewhat constitute the market value demand side. Then you have the market value supply side, which gets defined by the amount of bitcoins available for sale. This supply side may grow or shrink here or there a little bit, depending on what the miners and/or long-term investors had for breakfast. Do you have any idea of what would happen to the value of bitcoins if just one large investor decided it would be a riot to just purchase 20mio bitcoins for a dollar? Even if you never had more than twice the 200k bitcoin adaptors we have as of now, you'd have no more than 2.5 bitcoins available per person on average - and every time those guys like to make a 100$ transaction, they will either have to buy more bitcoins or drive up the price to $40, at which point the large investor could just attempt to slowly release 1mio of his coins (thus doubling the supply side, lowering the price to $20) just to receive his initial investment back, while still still sitting on 19mio more bitcoins!

Now look at the amount of ongoing daily transactions, the amount of people doing those transactions, and the amount of possible large investors. They exceed $100, 400k people and 1 by far!

So go ahead, keep pushing your agendas - but the only absurd idiot in this forum is you. All the more so for calling people names, while actually attempting to justify a realistic sub-parity dollar denominated bitcoin valuation on the grounds of openly rigged GDP data, which is dollar denominated by nature to begin with! God be with you if we ever saw a large USD crash. You could consider yourself lucky if you even were to receive a single bitcoin for your monthly dollar paycheck then.

Now please do yourself and all of us a huge favor - go educate someplace else.

No, you can call me Synaptic. Why the fuck would you call me Bob, Mr. Cunt? Do you mind if I call you Mr. Cunt?

I almost can't even begin to approach the HUGE fallacious logic in your post. Your numbers don't even make any sense! In fact, I can't be bothered and hopefully some other poster who cares to correct you will do so, because I'm happy to let the rest of the audience try to make sense of your stupidity themselves. I'm sure you'll attack me for that. HURR, SEE YOU CAN'T DO IT HURR.

One glaringly hilarious number you threw out is 400k people?

LOL... I'm not even going to ask how you can justify that number, because anyone who understands Bitcoin knows exactly where you assumed to pull that number from and will know how full of shit you are.

Thank you Bob for making it so very easy to just as well ignore you since you obviously don't care to explain any of your absurd statements, nor care to elaborate on why people who choose to give you counter-arguments are incorrect. Also calling an official gold medal winner at an international mind sports olympiade stupid is... well, mildly ironic and kind of funny actually to say the least. Cool

Btw, how does a dick in your mouth taste like? Seems like you've been giving the CIA or some other dollar-affin wannabe think tank blowjobs all along.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: smoothie on July 16, 2011, 04:37:47 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 11:03:13 PM

Quote from: smoothie on July 15, 2011, 10:50:48 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 01:32:44 PM

Quote from: smoothie on July 15, 2011, 01:30:20 PM

Quote from: jjiimm_64 on July 15, 2011, 11:49:49 AM

These are two statement from the same post...

Quote from: Synaptic on July 15, 2011, 11:37:33 AM

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.

This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

my question: Aren't these two statements mutually exclusive?

edit: after rereading my post.. I should have said: Aren't these two statements contradictory?

Yes he seems to make a point but then contradict it later on in his own statement.

Not at all.

I offered ample evidence that can easily be verified by hard sources and simple logical reasoning to back up my thesis.

Therefore, no contradiction. Facts follow formula, and I provided the requisite references.

Dude you nor anyone else can predict the future with 100%accuracy. Thus your claim although you cited sources is still S

P

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It's actually a well educated hypothesis; One that in all likely-hood will continue to bare out as I've laid forth. Look, even since I started posting BTC has lost 9.5% of it's 24hr value. There will of course be a bump, but then another gradual slow burn fall as has been happening ever since the Gox recovery.

The signs are there for anyone to see. This market isn't really as volatile as the speculators would love it to be, at all. At it's been predictable since the bubble began. It's really not a mystery to anyone that understands these basic truths.

It's called volatility. You are talking in such short terms. Come back and talk to us all when a year has gone by and you've let your hypothesis play out over the long term and not in such a short term period of 24hours.

What's called volatility, volatility? Or the opposite of volatility, predictability? Are you saying predictability is volatility?

Anyone who believes that this bubble was caused by magical "volatility" and not entirely predictable cause and effect is merely shortsighted, or mentally deficient. I remember quite clearly the MASSIVE amount of total MORONS during the height of the bubble that were outright LAUGHING at everyone saying it was a bubble, and all circle-jerking all over each other about how the growth was going to continue to be exponential and take it up to $100/BTC by September and other assorted bullshit.

RIGHT TO THE MOON!

Well...obviously those of us who saw it for exactly what it was/is aren't trying to sooth our deflated egos with this "volatility" mantra.

The fact is the Bitcoin market has NEVER been a volatile market. There have been extremely clear causal sources for the markets exceedingly predictable movements, going all the way back to April when the mining craze started to heat up.

Synaptic

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Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 04:35:21 PM

Quote from: Synaptic on July 16, 2011, 04:01:36 PM

Quote from: flug on July 16, 2011, 03:42:44 PM