Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC - page 2.

tranthidung

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Quote from: Findingnemo on December 17, 2020, 02:38:03 PM

A pc or laptop is must required equipment for sure when they want to become a crypto investor but we can't expect everyone to hold on such device where every they go. There are people who always in travel so they keep in touch with their smartphone for most of their crypto related works.

True.

Quote

Electrum is good wallet to find and set the required fee with many features as you stated but they are not accurate all the times which I experienced it personally. Many times I end up paying more fee than what is actually needed for my transaction to get included in the next block that is why I moved to mempool analyzer even when making transactions from my smartphone as well.

I don't know what caused your problem with inaccuracy from fee rate estimate in Electrum (wallet for Android). As I emphasized, make sure you choose the Mempool option for your mobile wallet. Default, the wallet is use ETA for fee estimation that often gives you over killing fee. Is it the option you have on your mobile wallet?

Findingnemo

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Quote from: tranthidung on December 17, 2020, 01:36:57 PM

As a crypto investor, a computer is a must equipment with which you will have a better screen than mobile.

If you only use mobile (Android), an alternative is Electrum wallet. You can get the fee rate from mempool with fee estimation (click on Send, tap on the Star icon). There are 3 options for the fee estimation: ETA, Mempool and Static. You have to choose Mempool. Then, scroll the bar to change target from 0.1 MB from tip to 10 MB from tip and which each level, you will see a different fee rate (sat/byte).

From a few times I observe it, it gives correct fee rate (you can double check with jochen-hoenick.de site.

If you are cautious of loss if you store your bitcoin on mobile, simply create a test wallet and don't store any bitcoin inside. Use the test wallet to get fee rates.

A pc or laptop is must required equipment for sure when they want to become a crypto investor but we can't expect everyone to hold on such device where every they go. There are people who always in travel so they keep in touch with their smartphone for most of their crypto related works.

Electrum is good wallet to find and set the required fee with many features as you stated but they are not accurate all the times which I experienced it personally. Many times I end up paying more fee than what is actually needed for my transaction to get included in the next block that is why I moved to mempool analyzer even when making transactions from my smartphone as well.

tranthidung

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Quote from: Findingnemo on December 17, 2020, 01:04:18 PM

Of course from the site you mentioned we can get clear insight of Mempool however for a normal joe it maybe hard for to understand when they visit from smaller screen devices that is why I mentioned some good alternative which atleast shows up high, medium, low priority required fee with block sizes and fees so it maybe allow us to choose the right fee even when we are not in front of our PC.

As a crypto investor, a computer is a must equipment with which you will have a better screen than mobile.

If you only use mobile (Android), an alternative is Electrum wallet. You can get the fee rate from mempool with fee estimation (click on Send, tap on the Star icon). There are 3 options for the fee estimation: ETA, Mempool and Static. You have to choose Mempool. Then, scroll the bar to change target from 0.1 MB from tip to 10 MB from tip and which each level, you will see a different fee rate (sat/byte).

From a few times I observe it, it gives correct fee rate (you can double check with jochen-hoenick.de site.

If you are cautious of loss if you store your bitcoin on mobile, simply create a test wallet and don't store any bitcoin inside. Use the test wallet to get fee rates.

Findingnemo

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Quote from: tranthidung on December 14, 2020, 07:32:24 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on December 13, 2020, 01:51:52 PM

For anyone who wants to know the real time recommended fee can use this site : https://mempool.space/

which gets updated in real time and also I am personally using this in the recent times to find exact recommended fee which is mostly inaccurate on lot of reputed fee calculating websites.

I would like to recommend jochen-hoenicke.de that I mentioned here many times. With that site, you can have three different chats for Mempool: Unconfirmed transaction counts, Pending transaction fee in BTC, Mempool size in MB.

Honestly, I usually check the third chart at bottom (Mempool size in MB) but there is more convenience if you want to get more details with 2 other charts.

Another plus point of that site compares to mempool.space is the color scheme used for fee rate bands are very well-designed. It ranges from cold colors (represent low fee rates) to hot colors (represent high fee rates). The color schemed for rate bands on mempool.space is weird and I am not like it. It is mixed from hot (at low fee rate), to cold (average fee rate) and back to hot (high fee rate).

Of course from the site you mentioned we can get clear insight of Mempool however for a normal joe it maybe hard for to understand when they visit from smaller screen devices that is why I mentioned some good alternative which atleast shows up high, medium, low priority required fee with block sizes and fees so it maybe allow us to choose the right fee even when we are not in front of our PC.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: Findingnemo on December 13, 2020, 01:51:52 PM

For anyone who wants to know the real time recommended fee can use this site : https://mempool.space/

which gets updated in real time and also I am personally using this in the recent times to find exact recommended fee which is mostly inaccurate on lot of reputed fee calculating websites.

I would like to recommend jochen-hoenicke.de that I mentioned here many times. With that site, you can have three different chats for Mempool: Unconfirmed transaction counts, Pending transaction fee in BTC, Mempool size in MB.

Honestly, I usually check the third chart at bottom (Mempool size in MB) but there is more convenience if you want to get more details with 2 other charts.

Another plus point of that site compares to mempool.space is the color scheme used for fee rate bands are very well-designed. It ranges from cold colors (represent low fee rates) to hot colors (represent high fee rates). The color schemed for rate bands on mempool.space is weird and I am not like it. It is mixed from hot (at low fee rate), to cold (average fee rate) and back to hot (high fee rate).

Findingnemo

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Quote from: tranthidung on December 12, 2020, 11:46:57 PM

It's weekend and today is Sunday that usually gives you opportunities to move your bitcoin at lower fee rate.

For anyone who wants to know the real time recommended fee can use this site : https://mempool.space/

which gets updated in real time and also I am personally using this in the recent times to find exact recommended fee which is mostly inaccurate on lot of reputed fee calculating websites.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

It's weekend and today is Sunday that usually gives you opportunities to move your bitcoin at lower fee rate.

There is less than 2.6 MB in mempool and you have probability to get confirmation for your transaction within next 3 to 6 block with fee rate at 1 sat/vbyte. To make sure if you are in hurry, you can choose the fee rate at 2 - 3 sat/vbyte. If you are not in a hurry, there is chances for 1 sat/vbyte.

In the next days till the end of December, you will probably see wild movements of bitcoin so make sure to take advantage of low fee rates today.

fentanyl08

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My transaction is stuck since last 12 hours even though I sent at 17 sat/byte fee. https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/4fbf4240b65fe6c371a0eaf615aa0caaae95245c1c4e5b35d83d4a66da47c984

Edit: It just got through.

tranthidung

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Quote from: darkv0rt3x on November 15, 2020, 07:06:26 AM

Maybe for people already familiarized with the stats and values and terminology, it is not a problem, but for me, it would be extremely handy to have a brief description of each axis values meaning. I mean, on those plots where that can be applied.

I will include variable notes and might (or might not) include label variables for yaxis. With some plots, the plot titles are enough and there is no need to mess up plots with y labels.

Weekend to come soon and I have very good news for you!

Mempool was cleared 3 hours ago now its total size is 5.1 MB.

The climb of bitcoin recent hours put some hurry people use high fee but I won't think it will last long (based on the weekend effects) and very low transaction counts in the last 2 weeks. Check it there: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,2w

Mempool even was cleared on some non-weekend days, almost clear at least once for every day.

darkv0rt3x

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I have a suggestion for your (OP's) plots.
Maybe for people already familiarized with the stats and values and terminology, it is not a problem, but for me, it would be extremely handy to have a brief description of each axis values meaning. I mean, on those plots where that can be applied.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: bob123 on November 03, 2020, 10:21:20 AM

Quote from: tranthidung on November 03, 2020, 10:03:28 AM

What to expect next few days?

Bitcoin price will be stable

Can you lend me your crystal ball? Grin

I don't really get how you can make conclusions about the $-value of BTC by looking at the difficulty.
There might be some correlation, but you can't really derive the future price action by looking at a (relatively normal) difficulty correction.

No. I don't forecast price of BTC here (if there is forecast it will be one-way forecast). The thread is all about fee and to expect cheaper fee, the conditions are stable price of BTC and difficulty adjustment. The network has the second one, a big -16% adjustment. What to wait is BTC price. If thing goes well, fee rates might be cheaper.

I probably chose a bad word (expect). It should be wish or hope (maybe). Just my incompetence in English.

bob123

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Quote from: tranthidung on November 03, 2020, 10:03:28 AM

What to expect next few days?

Bitcoin price will be stable

Can you lend me your crystal ball? Grin

I don't really get how you can make conclusions about the $-value of BTC by looking at the difficulty.
There might be some correlation, but you can't really derive the future price action by looking at a (relatively normal) difficulty correction.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: tranthidung on November 01, 2020, 01:18:05 AM

You can see the transaction count (figrue on plot *1000 as a multiplier) gradually falls back and remember that the next round of difficulty adjustment to come very soon (within next 2 days). 228 more blocks and difficulty will be adjusted. Latest difficulty adjustment is on block #653183 and the latest found block is #654971.

Difficulty

Block 655199: 19997335994446
Block 655200: 16787779609933

The network difficulty was adjusted ~ 7 hours ago with the fall of -16.04992% in difficulty between block 655199 and 655200. It is a big adjustment. The second biggest decreasing adjustment in history of bitcoin network.

The biggest one is 9 years ago (in 2011) between 2 following blocks and percent of decreasing adjustment is -18.03. Impressive for today adjustment.

Block 151199: 1468195.4272208
Block 151200: 1203461.92638

What to expect next few days?

Bitcoin price will be stable
Mempool will be clearer
Fee rates will be lower (your stucked transactions might be confirmed)

I will update this plot with date for today and its big adjustment later. If you are interested in with the sneak peak here, please check The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent)

tranthidung

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Today is Sunday and here you go with cheaper fee rates! Mempool is clearer and I expect to see it will be clear to the fee rate at 10 satoshi/(v)byte in next 12 hours.

I give you the mixed plot with different statistics for block size (daily with median, p25, p75), transaction count (median), difficulty, and fee per kB (median).

You can see the transaction count (figrue on plot *1000 as a multiplier) gradually falls back and remember that the next round of difficulty adjustment to come very soon (within next 2 days). 228 more blocks and difficulty will be adjusted. Latest difficulty adjustment is on block #653183 and the latest found block is #654971.

If you check the mempool condition last 6 month, current mempool is not the worst. The worse thing is more people set up or accept higher fees for their transactions.

tranthidung

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Another reason why fee is cheaper in weekends is block size is smaller in weekend days. Data and box plots for all time (2009 - 29 Oct 2020) or since 2017 so far show that fact.

So to sum up, on the weekends, bitcoin network usually has:

Smaller block size.
Less transaction counts.
Cheaper transaction fee rates

tranthidung

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It is a bump! (for the coming weekend)

I hope that newbies who don't understand how bitcoin transactions are confirmed and how mempool changes will take this bull run of bitcoin price and transaction fee to learn. It is a valuable live course and it does not happen too regularly.

Read OP and a few posts in this thread as well as the quoted post, then observe mempool to see how it goes next few days or even up to 2 weeks.

Quote from: tranthidung on October 30, 2020, 07:22:04 AM

In the last 30 days, there are 3 periods in which mempool size exceeds 50 MB (first in early days of October, second around 21 October at 53 MB -- the purple arrow, and the third is now with 62 MB in mempool. In percent, there is an increase of 17% in mempool size compares to what it was on 21 October 2020. After that day, mempool was dipped and almost clear.

I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now. Cheesy

Institutional and weekend effects
A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d

tranthidung

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Quote from: Pmalek on October 25, 2020, 05:01:52 AM

We are now somewhere in between 2-3 Sat/vByte. Looks like in the last 8 hours, it wasn't the perfect time for 1 Sat/vByte transactions. There are constantly 15-20MB of unconfirmed 1 Sat/vByte transactions in the mempool. It looks like 2 Sats is the goal for today.

Currently, it is a matter of 2 fee rates: 1 and 2 satoshi(s)/ (v)byte. If Bitcoin price won't have big changes and won't cause panic, I expect to see mempool will be dipped to 1 satoshi/ (v)byte today, in next few hours. The matter is will mempool be completely cleared? Maybe or maybe not, I don't know (it is a game of luck).

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,8h

Update for 26 Oct 2020, 3:47 AM UTC. Mempool is clearer and you can get instant transaction within next 1 block at 2 satoshis/ (v)byte. I am expecting to see mempool will completely cleared for all current waiting transactions at 1 satoshi/(v)byte around next 2 hours.

Pmalek

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Quote from: tranthidung on October 24, 2020, 10:09:12 PM

For the rate at 1 satoshi/ (v)byte, you need to have luck.

We are now somewhere in between 2-3 Sat/vByte. Looks like in the last 8 hours, it wasn't the perfect time for 1 Sat/vByte transactions. There are constantly 15-20MB of unconfirmed 1 Sat/vByte transactions in the mempool. It looks like 2 Sats is the goal for today.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

It's the weekend and today is Sunday!

Mempool was cleared since yesterday after stacked up recent days. As of writing at 3:04 AM UTC, you can instantly move BTC at 3 satoshi/(v)byte. If you check on https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h, you can see that the total size of waiting transactions for fee rates from 3+ satoshi/(v)byte is at 0.257 MB (< 1 MB). Therefore, you can get first confirmation within next 1 block with fees at 3 satoshis/ (v)byte.

I am expecting lower fee rate -- from 1 to 2 satoshi/ (v)byte -- because on Sunday institutional effects usually become smaller and fee can be cheaper. I believe that you can have chances to move your bitcoin at 2 satoshi/ (v)byte later today!

For the rate at 1 satoshi/ (v)byte, you need to have luck.

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: tranthidung on October 12, 2020, 12:13:21 AM

1 Block has size ~ 1MB.

Again, we need to make a distinction here between megabytes and virtual megabytes. A block will be 1 megabyte in virtual size, but can be up to 4 megabytes in physical size.

If you use Jochen Hoenicke's graph, for example, then each block will take a maximum of 1 megabyte of transactions off the graph since the transaction sizes are displayed in virtual bytes.

On the other hand, if you use a site like https://mempool.space, blocks are displayed with their physical size, which is almost always greater than 1 megabyte unless the mempool is empty.

Topic: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC - page 2. (Read 2740 times)