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Topic: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC - page 5. (Read 2728 times)

o_e_l_e_o
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18711
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 24, 2020, 04:29:04 AM
#8
Quote from: stompix on May 23, 2020, 01:05:11 PM
Before the halving messing up everything with the blocks time I observed a pattern, during weekdays before 11-13 GMT+1 there was still a way to send low fees, then the mempool was starting to grow and it will finally reached its peak somewhere at around midnight then decreasing during the night till becoming nearly empty.
Yes. The time of day plays a much larger role in determining fees than the day of the week.

Go to https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d to look at the last thirty days of data. Mouse over every local dip in fees, and you will notice that the vast majority fall in the range of 0700-1200 UTC. Mouse over every local peak, and you will notice that the vast majority fall in the range of 1700-0000 UTC. This was true before the halving and the most recent difficulty adjustment, and it is still true after both of these events (just with higher peaks and higher lows).

If you want to make a cheap transaction, then you can save a lot more on fees by timing it appropriately than just by waiting for the weekend (not to mention not having to wait so long either). In Asia and Australia, transact in the evening. In Europe and Africa, in the morning. In the Americas, it's late night/early morning, so probably queue it up before you go to bed.
joniboini
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1789
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 24, 2020, 12:33:29 AM
#7
Quote from: tranthidung on May 23, 2020, 09:53:48 PM
By the way, could you confirm the time zone from blockchair.com is in GMT time zone or another one, please.

They use the UTC timezone according to their API docs[1]. The website use the same thing. If you visit https://blockchair.com/bitcoin for example, you'll see "Time (UTC)".

[1] https://blockchair.com/api/docs
tranthidung
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 23, 2020, 09:53:48 PM
#6
Quote from: LoyceV on May 23, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
This confirms what I knew already: Sunday's are the best days to consolidate small inputs.
Johoe's Bitcoin Mempool Size Statistics gives a very good (graphical) overview of recent (or all-time) fees.

I've been waiting for a low-fee transaction to confirm for 10 days now, it even skipped last Sunday. I'm in no rush Smiley
I know the page of Johoe but as I said there is only chart and no details on fees over days of week.  I can look at the chart and guess but I don't like that. Cheesy

By the way, could you confirm the time zone from blockchair.com is in GMT time zone or another one, please.
Quote from: stompix on May 23, 2020, 01:05:11 PM
Or it's just that people are still getting drunk at weekends and stop depositing and withdrawing as well as other purchases.  Grin
Actually I'm hoping it is like that although when finally coinbase started batching transaction this drop happened.
I don't know. Despite of the fact that Sundays and Saturdays are best days to move bitcoin, the Monday has the best declining percentages (-38.3%) in median fees (between 2018 and 2020). The next two ones are Sunday (-36.3%) and Saturday (-33.3%).
OP is updated with more details!
stompix
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 23, 2020, 01:05:11 PM
#5
Quote from: fillippone on May 23, 2020, 11:45:28 AM
I guess for example that the average "weekend effect" has increased in recent years, when "institutional money" has become a more reliable driving force in the markets, rather than 8 years ago when bitcoin was an "underground" experiment.

Or it's just that people are still getting drunk at weekends and stop depositing and withdrawing as well as other purchases.  Grin
Actually I'm hoping it is like that although when finally coinbase started batching transaction this drop happened.


Before the halving messing up everything with the blocks time I observed a pattern, during weekdays before 11-13 GMT+1 there was still a way to send low fees, then the mempool was starting to grow and it will finally reached its peak somewhere at around midnight then decreasing during the night till becoming nearly empty. Again, I've observed this from a CET timezone.

Quote from: LoyceV on May 23, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
I've been waiting for a low-fee transaction to confirm for 10 days now, it even skipped last Sunday. I'm in no rush Smiley

Next retarget might happen in 17 days (for real) so....you might have to wait a bit, Thranduil.
LoyceV
legendary
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Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 23, 2020, 12:40:35 PM
#4
This confirms what I knew already: Sunday's are the best days to consolidate small inputs.
Johoe's Bitcoin Mempool Size Statistics gives a very good (graphical) overview of recent (or all-time) fees.

I've been waiting for a low-fee transaction to confirm for 10 days now, it even skipped last Sunday. I'm in no rush Smiley
tranthidung
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 23, 2020, 11:49:51 AM
#3
Ok fil. I will take a look at it. The OP is in-progress. I make it because I saw people talk about weekend effects on fees. But there is no stats on this. Just a vague clue over the forum. I know people look at the mempool stats and jump to such conclusion.

Now, here you go with detailed stats. I will stratify it over specific years, tomorrow. I am off my computer now.
fillippone
legendary
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 23, 2020, 11:45:28 AM
#2
Nice work Tranthidung,
So apparently , as Many would expect, off peak days are the best to transact. However I think that aggregate statistics over 9 years period are considering a too different market environment to bee meaningful.
I guess for example that the average "weekend effect" has increased in recent years, when "institutional money" has become a more reliable driving force in the markets, rather than 8 years ago when bitcoin was an "underground" experiment.
I think you can progress your analysis in this direction, for example detailing how relevant is the "Saturday discount" over the years, maybe in percentage so to average different fees levels.

 
tranthidung
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 4085
Farewell o_e_l_e_o
Re: Bitcoin transaction fees (in sats/kb). Sunday, Saturday are best to move BTC
May 23, 2020, 09:45:08 AM
#1
I made an update and additional analysis here, please check it along with OP.
Changes of median fees and best hour-frame to move bitcoins, potential institutional effects

Data source:


Notes:
Quote from: https://blockchair.com/api/docs
All timestamps are in the UTC timezone, and have the following format: YYYY-MM-DD hh:ii:ss


From 03/01/2009 to 21/05/2020, there are some interesting things on bitcoin transaction fees (satoshis/ kB), over days of week.

Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: dofw

     dofw |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Sunday |     593.0  115803.4  468940.0   34697.5   16324.6  128883.5       0.0 9484216.2
   Monday |     593.0  111365.9  401325.0   37557.2   18009.1  140753.8       0.0 9225123.3
  Tuesday |     593.0  100150.8  158071.5   38152.3   19496.3  138605.4       0.0 1605024.8
Wednesday |     593.0   96682.2  152792.6   37311.1   19622.8  140122.4       0.0 1935712.1
 Thursday |     593.0  100000.1  155034.9   37832.8   19532.9  137204.1       0.0 1614434.0
   Friday |     593.0  100188.7  165738.1   38049.2   19795.5  139654.3       0.0 1739244.7
 Saturday |     594.0   91788.8  135577.6   35897.1   16857.5  129571.5       0.0  964080.3
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |    4152.0  102280.3  266939.1   37111.2   18488.7  137180.5       0.0 9484216.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ranks in median fees:
Code:
    +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | rank_median        dofw     median        iqr        p25        p75   min        max   median_all |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |           1      Sunday   34697.51   112558.9   16324.63   128883.5     0    9484216      37111.2 |
  2. |           2    Saturday   35897.09   112713.9   16857.54   129571.5     0   964080.3      37111.2 |
  3. |           3   Wednesday   37311.14   120499.6    19622.8   140122.4     0    1935712      37111.2 |
  4. |           4      Monday   37557.21   122744.7   18009.13   140753.8     0    9225123      37111.2 |
  5. |           5    Thursday   37832.75   117671.2   19532.88   137204.1     0    1614434      37111.2 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |           6      Friday   38049.16   119858.8   19795.47   139654.3     0    1739245      37111.2 |
  7. |           7     Tuesday   38152.32   119109.1   19496.31   138605.4     0    1605025      37111.2 |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Which days of week are the best for you to move your bitcoins? Look at the following results

The two best days are in the weekend:
  • Sunday: ~ 6.5% lower fees (than median fees)
  • Saturday: ~ 3.3 lower fees (than median fees)
Code:
    +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | rank_median        dofw     median   median_all     percent        iqr        p25        p75   min        max |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |           1      Sunday   34697.51      37111.2   -6.503933   112558.9   16324.63   128883.5     0    9484216 |
  2. |           2    Saturday   35897.09      37111.2   -3.271534   112713.9   16857.54   129571.5     0   964080.3 |
  3. |           3   Wednesday   37311.14      37111.2    .5387735   120499.6    19622.8   140122.4     0    1935712 |
  4. |           4      Monday   37557.21      37111.2    1.201836   122744.7   18009.13   140753.8     0    9225123 |
  5. |           5    Thursday   37832.75      37111.2    1.944304   117671.2   19532.88   137204.1     0    1614434 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |           6      Friday   38049.16      37111.2    2.527444   119858.8   19795.47   139654.3     0    1739245 |
  7. |           7     Tuesday   38152.32      37111.2     2.80542   119109.1   19496.31   138605.4     0    1605025 |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+


Stratification by years
As requested by @fillippone, I stratified data by specific years (2009 - 2020).

Details:
Monday:
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      51.0    4950.3   33360.4       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0  238095.0
     2010 |      52.0   34904.5  114720.9       0.0       0.0    8211.5       0.0  653126.2
     2011 |      52.0  514649.4 1262784.3  233010.2  142041.8  595944.6   24708.7 9225123.3
     2012 |      53.0  179022.9  120559.2  152690.6  137667.1  175029.6   96503.1  870947.9
     2013 |      52.0  150790.4   70376.0  153020.6  114558.2  174918.1   37592.8  498257.1
     2014 |      52.0   33135.0    8558.4   29954.7   27128.6   36717.2   23751.9   64432.5
     2015 |      52.0   31326.1   15170.5   28566.7   25248.5   33179.7   23250.8  133031.9
     2016 |      52.0   52386.6   16033.0   50726.5   39774.5   60562.8   28054.2   96109.9
     2017 |      52.0  180241.5   93641.3  152725.8  121587.0  202201.9   75191.4  528990.3
     2018 |      53.0   43986.7   76488.3   22626.1   15208.9   28315.9   10945.8  391606.3
     2019 |      52.0   31551.2   24647.7   22422.7   16064.8   37342.7   10473.2  131621.1
     2020 |      20.0   23039.5   19878.1   13969.6   12855.1   27805.3   10461.7   93306.4
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     593.0  111365.9  401325.0   37557.2   18009.1  140753.8       0.0 9225123.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      51.0   27163.2  190251.5       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0 1359064.7
     2010 |      52.0   36361.9  126942.2       0.0       0.0    1347.8       0.0  664349.7
     2011 |      52.0  336001.7  303561.4  216371.2  130483.8  520788.0   18727.9 1605024.8
     2012 |      52.0  181725.2  105328.0  159116.7  133683.0  187035.7  101777.4  826886.6
     2013 |      53.0  155542.8   92725.8  158850.1  114067.4  175743.3   40950.7  702333.1
     2014 |      52.0   32295.5    8818.4   29382.5   27055.6   34595.3   23929.0   67830.4
     2015 |      52.0   28688.8    3983.1   28478.0   25132.7   32047.0   22796.9   40503.3
     2016 |      52.0   57169.0   29541.9   51534.9   39382.4   63220.8   29632.3  231537.4
     2017 |      52.0  192130.5  104358.7  161890.0  116277.4  247427.9   70813.2  482196.3
     2018 |      52.0   48955.6   87343.1   21424.5   16194.0   31960.9   11611.5  431956.1
     2019 |      53.0   33237.1   24513.7   21238.7   16525.8   41632.0    8691.3  110994.1
     2020 |      20.0   25283.7   24904.3   15019.1   14060.1   23449.1   12935.9  118484.2
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     593.0  100150.8  158071.5   38152.3   19496.3  138605.4       0.0 1605024.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      51.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
     2010 |      52.0   11677.9   31072.7       0.0       0.0       0.2       0.0  148318.8
     2011 |      52.0  345898.9  339271.4  235424.2  139956.8  507037.1   10606.8 1935712.1
     2012 |      52.0  162495.0   49637.9  152850.4  137417.6  173893.8   97582.9  343365.3
     2013 |      52.0  173264.2  102866.7  169026.2  119091.9  186283.3   44876.7  684132.7
     2014 |      53.0   33121.4    9195.0   29781.2   26979.5   36606.7   24040.2   72236.9
     2015 |      52.0   28705.1    4479.9   27214.6   25292.9   31485.6   23171.0   42320.3
     2016 |      52.0   53150.9   14081.0   53137.4   41509.2   62153.4   29793.3   90628.9
     2017 |      52.0  195654.6  112334.8  159772.1  125666.4  244862.7   78410.2  625547.2
     2018 |      52.0   52139.1   94496.5   22335.3   16411.3   30153.9   11059.8  448499.9
     2019 |      52.0   34481.1   23772.4   23365.3   18116.7   45055.2   11462.5  103487.8
     2020 |      21.0   28038.4   26805.8   18544.2   13994.9   28985.5    8737.1  125343.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     593.0   96682.2  152792.6   37311.1   19622.8  140122.4       0.0 1935712.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      51.0     240.8    1719.4       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0   12279.3
     2010 |      52.0   13169.5   43415.6       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0  241310.0
     2011 |      52.0  363820.6  311723.5  245530.3  162098.1  525536.8   12562.5 1614434.0
     2012 |      52.0  191894.8  129888.7  152932.8  130908.1  182110.7  109681.0  805762.0
     2013 |      52.0  162010.1   81951.6  161381.1  113910.1  187210.9   44607.3  495504.9
     2014 |      52.0   32800.1    8631.3   28975.5   26799.8   36254.9   24315.9   60081.2
     2015 |      53.0   29011.0    4709.4   27604.2   25401.5   31488.4   23249.0   43112.7
     2016 |      52.0   52823.4   14638.3   51567.6   41126.1   61675.4   30985.0   93517.2
     2017 |      52.0  197985.0  125115.5  164563.4  115341.3  245580.5   74788.0  805217.0
     2018 |      52.0   48757.4   85759.9   23553.5   16814.6   29984.9   11156.2  435074.6
     2019 |      52.0   34768.6   26378.7   23742.8   17611.0   44549.2   10034.6  125018.8
     2020 |      21.0   31079.3   29168.4   17614.9   14728.3   31110.3    9425.7  119124.5
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     593.0  100000.1  155034.9   37832.8   19532.9  137204.1       0.0 1614434.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      51.0     249.6    1782.3       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0   12728.1
     2010 |      53.0   10407.2   35737.5       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0  237765.1
     2011 |      52.0  323978.6  288721.0  199914.7  144542.6  501429.0    8743.7 1363952.1
     2012 |      52.0  239621.5  282500.6  156698.2  134327.1  198446.6  108030.9 1739244.7
     2013 |      52.0  153132.6   67294.1  155538.9  115835.0  180468.6   46422.6  379982.8
     2014 |      52.0   33993.9   10648.4   30008.9   27327.5   36623.8   23615.4   81961.2
     2015 |      52.0   31893.7   18130.9   28965.8   25591.4   33015.2   23819.8  156067.1
     2016 |      53.0   53017.9   16679.6   53561.4   39157.5   60421.0   26762.0  103608.7
     2017 |      52.0  201265.8  134357.6  167277.1  123086.4  235439.5   68692.6  908621.0
     2018 |      52.0   48192.5   83010.9   23320.5   16717.7   31212.6   11494.1  459456.1
     2019 |      52.0   34543.2   27468.5   23106.5   16874.5   42172.0   11232.5  135576.4
     2020 |      20.0   28665.4   24055.8   16944.6   14609.3   38184.6   10340.2   99857.6
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     593.0  100188.7  165738.1   38049.2   19795.5  139654.3       0.0 1739244.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      52.0    1965.1   14170.7       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0  102186.5
     2010 |      52.0   32092.7  125612.4       0.0       0.0    4466.9       0.0  790521.1
     2011 |      53.0  317022.6  261008.8  197302.8  139154.7  492533.0    6495.2  964080.3
     2012 |      52.0  166173.6   66467.2  147489.1  127647.4  173937.5  107258.2  442026.9
     2013 |      52.0  147467.4   53945.4  149918.3  113866.7  176124.4   35432.9  277574.8
     2014 |      52.0   32328.0    7143.1   29260.4   27339.0   35645.5   24155.8   57007.6
     2015 |      52.0   30372.5   10512.1   27958.0   25225.3   32855.7   22015.5   94374.6
     2016 |      53.0   50148.5   13575.6   49684.7   38064.4   57658.6   28823.1   86846.1
     2017 |      52.0  186994.1  118988.2  146220.3  113944.3  217920.2   67630.7  722789.4
     2018 |      52.0   41940.1   72920.2   20167.8   15559.9   28546.0    9917.0  389297.9
     2019 |      52.0   26995.6   19331.8   18576.9   13499.9   32719.5    8725.6   83301.4
     2020 |      20.0   20668.8   15182.3   13447.1   11746.9   27872.7    8472.0   65710.5
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     594.0   91788.8  135577.6   35897.1   16857.5  129571.5       0.0  964080.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday
Code:
Summary for variables: feeperkb
     by categories of: year

     year |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     2009 |      51.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
     2010 |      52.0   55886.8  148737.9       0.0       0.0     654.3       0.0  800519.0
     2011 |      52.0  439772.4  787280.4  200565.4  133085.2  625671.2   21181.0 5624557.7
     2012 |      53.0  328402.8 1282878.3  140663.6  123587.4  163576.8   88269.0 9484216.2
     2013 |      52.0  141031.5   49752.2  149606.5  115114.5  172138.3   35983.2  282832.6
     2014 |      52.0   35656.5   31107.0   28378.2   26498.9   35867.7   22862.9  249820.1
     2015 |      52.0   28472.1    5818.3   27330.6   24328.7   31335.8   21057.6   53612.1
     2016 |      52.0   48522.6   13749.4   47761.4   36857.4   59168.6   27127.8   85031.1
     2017 |      53.0  163036.1  111610.9  132054.8   97780.7  183671.3   60490.4  694572.0
     2018 |      52.0   38893.2   68516.1   19472.9   15142.5   30898.4   10467.6  401735.9
     2019 |      52.0   24335.9   16180.8   17025.1   13437.5   28488.2   10260.8   72749.0
     2020 |      20.0   18574.4   14943.4   12402.5   10619.3   23487.8    8738.8   73272.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |     593.0  115803.4  468940.0   34697.5   16324.6  128883.5       0.0 9484216.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overview:
  • If we take the year 2018 as a reference year, and calculate the percent of changes in median fees between 2018 and 2020, the values are shown below.
  • Monday, Sunday and Saturday are days of week that have most decreasing median fees.
  • percent = (y2020 - y2018)/ y2018*100
  • I dropped 2 years : 2009 and 2010 (because of their 0-values)
Code:
    +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |      dofw    y2011    y2012    y2013   y2014   y2015   y2016    y2017   y2018   y2019   y2020   percent |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |    Monday   233010   152691   153021   29955   28567   50727   152726   22626   22423   13970     -38.3 |
  2. |    Sunday   200565   140664   149607   28378   27331   47761   132055   19473   17025   12403     -36.3 |
  3. |  Saturday   197303   147489   149918   29260   27958   49685   146220   20168   18577   13447     -33.3 |
  4. |   Tuesday   216371   159117   158850   29383   28478   51535   161890   21425   21239   15019     -29.9 |
  5. |    Friday   199915   156698   155539   30009   28966   53561   167277   23321   23107   16945     -27.3 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  Thursday   245530   152933   161381   28976   27604   51568   164563   23554   23743   17615     -25.2 |
  7. | Wednesday   235424   152850   169026   29781   27215   53137   159772   22335   23365   18544       -17 |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Time-series plots:
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