If you are a miner, and you know a block of size X can be processed by 85% of the network, but not 100%, do you mine it? If by 'network', we mean hashrate, then definitely! 85% is high enough that you'll be able to build the longest chain. The miners that can't keep up will be pruned, and then the target for '85% fastest' moves - now a smaller set of miners represents 85% and you can move the block size up, pruning another set of miners.
If by 'network', you mean all nodes... today we already have nodes that can't keep up. So by necessity you are picking a subset of nodes that can keep up, and a subset that cannot. So, now you are deciding who is safe to prune. Raspi's? Probably safe. Single merchants that run their own nodes on desktop hardware? Probably safe. All desktop hardware, but none of the exchanges? Maybe not safe today. But if you've been near desktop levels for a while, and slowly driving off the slower desktops, at some point you might only be driving away 10 nodes to jump up to 'small datacenter' levels.
And so it continues anyway. You get perpetual centralization pressure because there will always be that temptation to drive off that slowest subset of the network since by doing so you can claim more transaction fees.
This is indeed a headspinning attack and should be considered carefully. While Satoshi was able to publish Bitcoin with many opportunities to attack, today such an option is no longer reasonable since the value of the network did explode.
I don't feel comfortable to argue with you on this as you obviously know more about bitcoin (technically) than me. But since the envirenment here seems a bit more hostile against BU than healthy-critical and the persons knowing most about BU are not willing to attempt this discussion in this forum for reasons I can understand, let me give a try to be the "angel's advocate": I think this attack is based on strange assumptions:
- you assume a correlation between miner's hashrate and miner's capability to deal with large blocks. I don't see this. In fact the great firewall indicates the opposite.
- you assume that a small increase of the blocklimit can prune miners out. I don't see this, since miners are free to not fill up blocks, download capacity is no issue and miners can easily set an upload-limit for their node. Or am I missing something?
- you assume that miners will blindly follow the pruning and unknowingly support the 85%-attack while the number of nodes and miners are dwarfing. This is assuming they act against their own financial incentive.
- you assume the honest miners will not detect the 2,000-nodes-sybill-attack, which can easily to detected by using some basic statistics like median, average and standard deviation. Miners can decrease the blocklimit if they feel something going on.
Sure, an blocksize increase will lead to the pruning of some nodes. For example, my excessive poor internet connection will force me to limit the upload of my node (which is easily possible with BU's gui) when blocks reach 2 MB, so that I will no longer be able to propagate blocks to 8 peers in 30 seconds. Maybe to 4 or 5. But I think this will be inevitable since blocks have to increase in size.
But after all I feel far from being comfortable with this attack possibility and regard it as a serious concern for Bitcoin Unlimited.