Topic: Bitcoin Will Be a Failure Even If It Hits $100,000, Says "Black Swan" Author !! (Read 1024 times)

I greatly respect people who have a lot of knowledge on any subject, but it really seems very stupid for a person to say that, if bitcoin has already reached 70,000 dollars and right now we are at a very good price to buy, I don't understand that he says arguments so elaborate as to confuse people who do not know, it seems to me that it is a very dirty move.

This tends to confuse those who want to be part of the history of bitcoin, it is not the duty to issue such bad opinions.

The idea that they have to accept bitcoin and they are losing money because of that is a big big lie that is for sure. If they are not sure about accepting bitcoin then all they had to do was accept it, get it on their accounts and change it to fiat right away, right there.

Everything is expensive all over the world, and the cries for inflation being too high is reality, we had protests in my nation just about this a month ago, we literally took a beating (I was lucky few not to get it) by the cops because governments do not want it to be a big deal. All in all, inflation is real everywhere, and bitcoin has nothing to do with these people not making a profit.

It is frequently best to start at the beginning.

Just like in the wizard of oz.




It seems that I am saying more than that, but hey, you do what you can to absorb whatever amount you are able to absorb.

We (royal that is) cannot be forcing you to NOT to have fun staying poor.


Hahaha.. I said "hedge" and sure maybe "hedge" and "store of value" overlap in several ways, but they are not exactly the same concept.


Maybe... you are have some ability to argue the "always" point, but I doubt that we (at least this here cat) are talking about bitcoin as if it were ONLY a store of value (even though being a store of value is part of the package of what bitcoin seems to be, so it is not as if you are totally off base when you use that "always must be a store of value" idea).


Perhaps bitcoin is way too immature to be a strict store of value then.. at least in the sense that you are wanting to suggest that it is failing to be such store of value?  For the sake of argument, that point could be conceded while still appreciating that bitcoin is a hedge, and likely to be a great store of value in the future, especially if it ever comes close to reaching world reserve status.. which could take 20 years or it might take 200 years or longer to reach such world of reserve status, and then at that point, it might fit your idea of what is a store of value a wee bit MOAR better at that point than it does now.. and now it may well be a better thought of as a hedge rather than a store of value..


Well, bitcoin gives the Salvadorians options.  They can store value in bitcoin or they can store in dollars, and of course how they store their value should not be considered as an all or nothing proposition..

I believe several of the lightning apps allow for instant conversion to dollars if the Salvadorians want to convert from dollars to BTC or from BTC to dollars for low or no fees...

So I do not see what is the problem that you are having about El Salvadorans having options, even though it might be a bit of struggle for some normie folks to consider how much they should hold in dollars versus how much they should hold in bitcoin or other ways that they might choose to hold their value in other ways (such as buying chickens or property if they are able to buy property).

If they need to be somewhat liquid in how they store their value, and their expenses are denominated in dollars, then many times there are needs to manage cashflows so that you are not gambling with money that comes in through a business, so in that regard, there is a need to hold a decent amount of value in dollars in order to attempt to project incoming and ougoing money, so even though bitcoin is bringing a new kind of option regarding how to possibly hold value, those kinds preparations for cashflows considerations would be business basics, no?

Your reply is so very long I do not know where to begin hehehe. Everything in there is only telling me that bitcoin is an excellent form of speculative investment since 2012 which I very much agree. But not one thing of it implies it is good as a store of value. Zoom out? Why would someone zoom out? A good store of value must have a stable value always. It must have same value or very near the purchase value the next day, the next week, the next month, the next 3 months and so on. It must not be -60% in 3 months.



On top of soaring inflation, Salvadorans who trade or hold bitcoin are now feeling extra financial pain. “Everything, everything is expensive, which means we’re not earning anything,” says Carolina Reyes, a food vendor who accepts bitcoin in the tourist town of El Palmarcito. “And now everyone is losing their money in bitcoin. Imagine!”

Source https://www.newscientist.com/article/2324810-what-will-the-crypto-crash-mean-for-bitcoin-nation-el-salvador/

This is not the first time he has criticized Bitcoin, nor is he the only one. Who knows, he might even be a bitcoin owner. We know that we don't have that much knowledge like them, but if we could see the potential of bitcoin, then wouldn't you think they've already seen it? You know what I believe? How do rich people become rich? In a simple way, it makes poor people poorer. So it's simple. They have the power to mislead. If they create, then they force us to react. If we react, then they get their success. And their success means our loss. So in my opinion, we should stop reacting and then you can see how the markets are going to work.

1. Somethings about the space are better left and not spoken about. I understand the impact of the halving but a huge amount of money pumps the market, you might get the idea of the size of the amount for the pump soon.announcement of Increase in Interest rate of where fund are borrowed affect the dump last year
2. Bitcoin is in 4 year cycle and my 100k expectation is in following next bitoin bull
3. Money flow from bitcoin to altcoins, then back to bitcoin, this determines when the next altseason

Do you think they are the ones that determines the fate of bitcoin rise in price? We have many factors to rise and fall on bitcoin since it's volatile and what determines it worth rate also are dynamic, since the whole whales are not making a dump release at the same time all over the world, I don't think thier influence could make much significance in the price when demand.


We can't conclude on this since the next halving is yet to occur, so we are still expecting one to occur come year 2024, the ATH we had was that of 2020


This is altcoin and we are less concerned about it, it has no role in determining the rise of bitcoin price, bitcoin rises base on it market demand and supply, when bitcoin falls, other cryptocurrencies got brutally from it.

Whales is playing out sentiments on the peak of the price of the bull market, well might be disappointing that the technical analysis that predicted the 100k failed. I also believe EThereum with its size of market also disappointed especially with the slow process of hardfork, which could giving bit push on bitcoin. The space achieved more than 6 trillion dollars and bitcoin stayed above 30% throughout the market, also unprecedented after altcoins .

You seem to make quite a few of these kinds of negative short-term assertions about bitcoin, and I really have trouble figuring out how to give you much benefit of the doubt because you surely seem smart enough to understand that bitcoin is not a mature asset, bitcoin is a paradigm shifting asset and bitcoin is a potential threat to the status quo financial institutions and governments that likely exacerbate the kinds of tools that they bring to attempt to keep bitcoin's price down in the short term....

And sure, we likely should not be looking all the way back before 2012 in order to show how much bitcoin's price has appreciated, but it seems fair enough to look back 8 years or so, and we get way the hell more than the ("more than 10x) price appreciation that you conceded.  From where would you like to start?  From the jumping off peak in 2015 (of $250?  that is nearly 100x), or would you prefer to start from the bottom of the 2017 price crash of about $3k, that brings us around 8x...

OH no, you like to look at the BTC price performance (volatility) matter on shorter time frames.. .. but even if we were to have seen someone largely establishing their BTC position prior to September 2020, then their entry point could have reasonably and realistically averaged less than $10k per BTC, and they would have gotten a price rise that brought them up almost 7x, and then to have had come crashing down to around 1.7x, and then now only be floating slightly above 2x.. ..

But we are both in a battle, and we have BIG players coming into the space and gambling the fuck out of various kinds of crypto - and using bitcoin as collateral and/or their exit vehicle and/or trying to make unrealistic (greedy as fuck profits), which exacerbates BTC volatility, but does that exacerbated volatility really reflect as negatively upon bitcoin as you continue to like to point out with your ongoing negative Nancy proclamations about how much bitcoin sucks because it happens to be volatile during this phase of its life cycle (which is early as fuck if you had not noticed)?  How much adoption do you believe bitcoin has?  less than 1% no?  You likely have heard about Gresham's law, but maybe you don't believe that bitcoin is the soundest of moneys that has ever existed (or at least has a decently great chance of continuing to go down that path)?

Good luck to folks 10 years or more down the road, who know about bitcoin sufficiently well at this time (as you seem to do, bbc.reporter), but who fail / refuse to adequately invest into it... or who buy into negative Nancy theories about bitcoin being too volatile and not strong enough as an asset class, cry cry cry..

Even if you do not like the idea of zoom out.. it has more implications than what you are rebelling against - which maybe shows that you really are having struggles understanding where bitcoin is at and even the amazing levels of adoption that have already been built, even though bitcoin is still relatively small in size and small in terms of a lot of areas that it is going to continue to grow - and it has been growing, in spite your distractions about the price having to have happened to go down 75%-ish so far from its $69k top in November.  It's not as BIG of a negative as you are making it out to be, and you even seem to understand that before it went down 75%-ish, it had happened to have gone up around 8.5x or more (if we start from $8k-ish), so that would still leave us up around 3x within the past 2-3 years as I type this post... Do you think that you could have gotten BTC for average of $8k-ish per BTC in the 2 to 3 years ago window of time?  Should have been doable, no?

Why are you all seriously debating the propositions of a pseudointellectual twister, who is a fraud by his own standards?  Taleb thrives on attention and credibility.  He relishes controversy—but he needs to be taken seriously.  When he has shown such gross intellectual dishonesty that he boosted a scam to attack Bitcoin, he should be ridiculed and otherwise disregarded.

I don’t think that Bitcoin is perfect; to the contrary, I am harshly critical of much of the economically inept speculative nonsense in this space (especially PlanB! or any TA!).  I think it would be productive for people who are acting in good faith to discuss and debate that—in another context.  Here, you are just keeping Taleb’s name in lights.

Similarly as the threshold question to Faketoshi should be a demand for a Satoshi signature, discussion of Taleb should not reach anything beyond his appearance at that Coingeek conference.  It is as if a celebrity astronomer gave a speech at a Flat Earth conference, tacitly endorsed their agenda, and didn’t even give a hint that the Earth may be round.  Thereafter, does he retain even the slightest shred of credibility?

Craig Wright must really be laughing at all of you.  The U.K. courts have given him a free hand to ruin people’s lives with frivolous litigation.  A famous celebrity scribbler of ephemeral writings burnished his public image, then somehow continues to be taken seriously in his attacks on Bitcoin.  Money to support the BSV operation must be flowing from somewhere.  Before January 2020, I spent years writing Wright off as a low-grade scammer beneath attention; but I now see that he must be laughing at you.

I do not like this zoom out excuse that everyone likes to use to make it appear that bitcoin's high volatility is okay for a store of value. Store of value should be stable and it should give us an assurance that the value of our money today will be the same or close to this the next day, the next week, the next month or the next year. I do not like to be told zoom out because the value is down -60% in 3 months.

As a volatile risk asset and a speculative investment, zoom out is okay. I will invest and zoom out, I can see that I can have profit of more than 10x of my investment despite being down -60% today.

@tokyohd, in the interest of fairly apprising readers of the nature of the source, please change topic title from:


Gold’s extended bear market was much longer than that.  Also, that’s not a good argument to raise here:  Taleb is anti-gold (so at least he agrees with Jay about something!).  Indeed, at Calvin Ayre’s Coingeek conference where Taleb appeared alongside Faketoshi, Taleb explicitly raised the “demonetization” of gold as an argument against Bitcoin.

Taleb is against gold.  Taleb is against Internet gold, i.e., Bitcoin.  At least, he is consistent in deprecating anything that could help people escape from the corrupt, kleptocratic fiat financial system.

So what? Gold was in a bear market for more than 6 years. In fact, everyone who bought in late 2011 or during 2012 had to wait until 2020 just to recover the value of their initial investment.
Every market has its ups and downs, that does not mean it is a failure.

Zoom out a bit bbc.reporter, then perhaps you might be able to help ur lil selfie to see this situation a wee bit moar better.  Perhaps? perhaps?

I have my doubts about your ability or willingness to see the situation better, instead you want to get caught up upon short-term volatility, don't you?  You are having some difficulties seeing the BIGGER picture, no?  You realize that there is a BTC price battle going on, right?  a kind of war, no?  why would the status quo just give in upon the greatest wealth transfer in history?  I get the sense that you might not care so much about what is really going on, and instead you want to suggest that you are smarter than everyone else because of your supposed better insight about what is a hedge.

Also your example of buying at the top in either November or even in April 2021 suggest that people are employing lump sum strategies at the top of the market.  Sure some people do that, but it is not a very realistic approach for someone who is actually trying to "hedge" rather than gamble.

Accordingly DCA tends to be a very decent strategy in a hedging product, and has proven to be quite an effective investment (hedging) strategy for anyone with a 4-10 year time horizon or longer.  If you are presuming that hedging with bitcoin is going to play out in a shorter than 4-year time horizon, there has been some historical time frames that has proven to work out.. and surely there could be some time frames in the future in which such a shorter than 4-year time horizon might end up working out; nonetheless, it  seems that coming into a hedge/investment with a 4-10 year time horizon or longer would be the better way of thinking about what is a hedge and how to use bitcoin has a hedge.

Furthermore, if we find out that bitcoin ended up going down over 4-10 years rather than either up or maintaining its own, that still would not mean that it was not good to consider it as a possible hedge.. even if it ended up NOT performing as well as expected at the time of getting into it.

Don't get me wrong, I am not even proclaiming that anyone has to come into bitcoin for a minimum of 4 years in order for bitcoin to serve as a hedge and/or a potentially good investment for whatever circumstances in which someone might want to put some allocation into bitcoin - and everyone whether individual, institution or government has to way his/her/its own circumstances in order to figure out how to employ it and what strategies to employ.. while at the same time there are likely better general practices and approaches, but at the same time, every person/entity should be attempting to tailorize their own bitcoin strategy/approach in a way that they believe it to be able to serve for them, and using bitcoin as a hedge is one of the strongest of investment thesis, especially over the longer term.. and may well could be employed over the shorter term too..

Agreed. However, if you bought bitcoin on November 2021 at $60,000, your hedge for inflation is down more than 50% on top of whatever the inflation rate is on your country's fiat currency. Also, it took a very big amount of leverage to pump bitcoin from $3k to a $60k bubble. This does not appear to be a good hedge for inflation because it does not really hedge.

Bitcoin is good for many things but let us not continue this circle jerk that it is a very good hedge for inflation.

Why are people wasting time and energy arguing over what Taleb’s opinons?  Why do you take him seriously?  He is a fraud.  Keywords:  Coingeek, CSW, Craig Steven Wright, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-is-a-fraud-5408004

I understand that we are starting to deviate a bit from the topic, yet I still consider that these kinds of personal BTC investment portfolio management decisions are important in the abstract, and they also can have some relationships to the topic of this thread in the sense that bearish, contradictory or even quasi-incoherent statements from otherwise credible sources (referring to Taleb here) can sometimes contribute towards our failures to buy as much BTC as we otherwise would, to sell too much BTC too early, and/or not even realize/appreciate that we are selling BTC when we are "investing in projects" that might even be BTC related projects.

I have found that if we do not purposefully work towards paying attention to our investment into BTC is not sufficiently maintained, then there can come about circumstances in which our BTC investment is little by little eroded away and before we know it we have way too little exposure/stake into it.

It is so difficult to know how much that is or how much it should be, and I am pretty sure that between about late 2013 and early 2017, I was somewhat maniacle in regards to making sure that I replaced any BTC that I spent, so I was kind of focused to always be increasing my stash, so even if I sent someone $5 worth of BTC so they could get started with BTC, I would be sure to replace at least the balance of BTC that I sent and maybe even use that as an opportunity to increase my stash by a little, so maybe I would replace it with $7 worth of BTC, so in the end, I had gained $2 in BTC by engaging in that sending of BTC.  I might not have even been correct in the way that I was thinking about BTC, yet there was an incident (Sims porting) that happened to me in early 2017 that contributed to my concluding that I already had way more BTC than I needed anyhow - and allowed me to become less obsessed in making sure that I replaced every BTC that I had spent.

Another couple of things happened to me earlier in my bitcoin journey in both late 2014 and then mid-2015 that caused me to think about my BTC stash somewhat differently and had been building me up to my further attempt to detach from my somewhat obsession to continue to build my BTC stash that had been in place in early 2017 prior to the sim porting incident that ended up resulting in a decent amount of BTC that were taken from me in such a high quantity that I knew would be practically (and psychologically) impossible for me to even try to replace those BTC without really screwing up my finances (and putting too much psychological pressures on me).

In late 2014, I had already been accumulating BTC for a whole year, and I had not really been sure about what my BTC accumulation targets should be because in late 2013, I had provided myself a specific dollar amount budget to invest into BTC for the next 6 months, so in May 2013 when I assessed that I had pretty much spent that whole 6 month budget, I gave myself another six month budget that closely matched the earlier 6 month budget.. So therefore by the end of 2014, I was in a position that I had to reassess again having had used earlier two budgets for each of the two earlier 6 month periods, and I determined that if I look at the size of my overall investment portfolio, then my target should be to have the amount that I invested into BTC to constitute about 10% of the total of that overall investment portfolio, and so therefore at the end of 2014, I had realized that I had reached my 10%, so therefore I had no more needs to feel obsessed with continuing to have to accumulate more and more BTC, and even though I reached that determination - I still could not stop myself to continue to accumulate BTC through 2015 and by the middle of 2015, I had reached close to 13.5% of my total investment portfolio was in BTC, which therefore inspired me to recognize and appreciate that I had overinvested into BTC and therefore I could create a system in which I could shave off portions of my excessive amount into BTC without having to worry about having enough into BTC so long as I stayed above 10% in BTC.

I am not sure about the point that I am wanting to make, except maybe to show some scenarios in which any of us can end up creating a whole bunch of mental gymnastics for ourselves in terms of either attempting to justify what we had been doing, what we continue to do at the time of thinking about what we had been doing, and then how we are going to plan to go forward in terms of whether we need to tweak in terms of trying to either accumulate more BTC, to just maintain where we are at or maybe we might conclude that we need to shave off some of our BTC holdings in order to align ourselves with where we are at and where we believe that we want to go.
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The punchline might well be that each of us is on a kind of spectrum in terms of our level of obsession of BTC and how much we might consider our own valuations to be reached, so you might well have been less obsessed than me, and I consider someone like Michael Saylor to be way more obsessed than me in terms of percentages, but there are other ways to frame the matter too... so maybe I am just starting to go all over the place and deviating from the topic way too much.


Maybe my mind is not creative enough, but I am really having trouble understanding this part.  You might have been on a whole different plane than me, and I suppose that part of the reason that I had outlined the earlier hypothetical was an attempt to describe a situation in which some ordinary person who is just buying BTC and then selling too much on the way up might find himself/herself in a kind of psychological and financial pickle by selling too much BTC on the way up, and then the BTC price does not come back down to their sell point, and in my case I picked $30k-ish in order to give you some benefit of the doubt that you might have been able to at least get some profits along the way and even get above our previous ATH (of $19,666 from late 2017) before seemingly reasonably going to zero BTC or close to zero BTC.

I know that there are normal and even reasonable people who would have sold all of their BTC way earlier than $30k in late 2020.. right around the time the BTC price had crossed back above $20k-ish in mid-December 2020.  There were a lot of those folks in late 2016 and early 2017 too, when BTC was approaching getting back to $1k, there were so many folks explaining how they would be selling all of their BTC prior to $1k because they considered that $1k was not sustainable so they either wanted to take profits or to even buy back when they presumed that the BTC price would go lower and even return to below $500 prices.  Similar kinds of dynamics happened with our going above $20k in late 2020 - however, going back above $20k did end up playing out in quite more violent ways in regards to never really returning back down to anything even close to $20k.  In late 2020 and into early 2021, we pretty much got a non-corrected BTC price rise up to $42k, and then a correction down to $30k in January and then even a later correction down to $28,600 in May/June 2021, and so we did not get any kind of correction back down below $30k-ish until way down the road - which would have been June 12, 2022-ish - which is pretty fucking weird if I do say so myself, and I think so many folks have been surprised by how wickedly out of expectations our most recent BTC price correction has so far ended up playing out. .which surely could end up providing opportunities to get back in for folks who both got out of BTC in late 2020/early 2021, and who had not gotten back in.

So my points had been that there were so many ways that any of us could have gotten pretty damned wrecked psychologically and financially even run out of our BTC position by engaging in somewhat normal behaviors in terms of wanting to take dollar profits on the way up to $30k and reasonably expecting a correction that largely did not end up happening until our most recent seeming fluke..

But you, buwaytress, are describing your own personal circumstances as seeming to be even more bearish and maybe even more degenerate gambling.. hahahahahaha.. hate to start calling you names because sometimes I start to become a wee bit too hostile towards folks who insufficiently and inadequately prepare for UP, and from my perspective, even if you want to fuck around with trading and take various somewhat bearish stances in respect to bitcoin (maybe we are getting back to the Nassim Taleb perspective here?), for anyone who claims to know anything about bitcoin (studied it for 100 hours or more.. a kind of arbitrary number admittedly) there should be some level of BTC allocation in the portfolios of all of us that are both allocated in BTC and also to always be there.. so yeah, maybe someone who is really negative about BTC might ONLY have 1% (or god forbid, only 0.5%) into BTC at all times, but yeah, maybe I am showing some of my close-mindedness and overly bullishness too..

Getting back to your point about 2020 liquidation enforced (apparently at the $20k-ish price point) buwaytress, I don't know how any liquidation can be enforced unless you had been betting on down.. like some kind of a short position that you might have taken earlier on but you were in a kind of forced stop if the BTC price crossed above a certain price threshold.

How else could there be any kind of enforced liquidation when the BTC price was going up?

Upon reflection, I will likely disclose up front that I am likely not even going to call anyone any kind of names, including you buwaytress, even if you have really bearish ideas about bitcoin, and consider it practical to bet against bitcoin, and probably my greater inclinations to want to call names to guys like Nassim Taleb is because he seems to have a tendency to talk outside of both sides of his mouth, and so he has tendencies to spout out quasi-incoherencies and so invoking some of his academic status in the process.

On the other hand, forum members will sometimes change some of their perspectives in regards to the bullish case for bitcoin, which will also change their practices too... whether that is selling too much too early or even  betting against BTC with the use of margin or leverage (and god forbid naked shorts which seem to be some of the modern tools that have become more and more available)... In regards to naked shorts, I would love to see a $10k or even a $20k daily (or even 3-day) UPpity candle that would likely reck the fuck out of quite a few naked shorters, and we should recognize that bitcoin is surely capable of such explosive upward price performances (even Nassim Taleb likely fears those kinds of dynamics because he may well even honestly be able to recognize that some of the ongoing removal of BTC from exchanges has decent chances of contributing towards UPwards BTC price explosions and that seems to be part of the reason (giving him some benefit of the doubt) regarding why he can both be bearish about bitcoin and admit that the BTC price could go to $100k at the same time).


I can surely relate to anyone getting themselves into a kind of psychological and financial pickle, and surely some folks cannot ever get over some mistakes that they had made in order to end up buying at a BTC price that is higher than the price that they had ended up selling.. We have so many examples of those kinds of folks in history, and some of them participate in this forum in very bitter ways (to the extent that they can even admit to themselves that either they made mistakes or that there might well be justifications in terms of buying back at higher prices than the sold prices).

From my perspective, we should try to NOT let our past mistakes inhibit us in any kind of sunk cost fallacy way - even though I understand that there are some psychological tensions in that regard.

Nonetheless if we feel that we can reasonably establish a bullish case for bitcoin, then the question largely becomes how much and how to invest rather than whether to invest.  I will note here that there are also people who proclaim that bitcoin is way too damned volatile and/or that they have some of their own financial issues, but still the prudent and reasonable conclusion may well still end up being how much and how to invest into BTC rather than whether to invest.

My off the cuff categories of BTC accumulation and building a BTC allocation target is to attempt to establish a target level (whether that be 1% to 25% of the total investment portfolio) and a timeline to reach that target level, and the target investment can be considered both in terms of how much to put in and whether price appreciation (or depreciation) will affect how to evaluate the reaching of target levels, and sometimes the target levels could be reached fairly quickly because the amounts to move around are not that great relative to resources available.. and also there can be decisions whether to actually take from some existing investments or ONLY to invest based on the inflow of new cashflow or a combination of both, but then other times it could be decided that a various intermediate goals might be more practical to establish.. besides what to do more immediately, there can be targets for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year,  2 years, 5 years, and/or some other timeline targets.

The three main tools for BTC accumulation are DCA, lump sum and buying on dips, and surely they can be planned out in various ways from the start and even have differing degrees of emphasis as targets are reached. and of course, making so many plans at point 1 does not lock any of us into having to follow our previously established plans at point 2, so there can be aspects of our plans that are more rigid and other aspects of the plans that are more flexible and to be determined based on later conditions that become known at point 2, but were not known with any level of certainty at point 1.

Planning, following the plan, reassessing and tweaking the plan can be very empowering, even though there can be quite a bit of time used in the process and even a lot of confusion in terms of even having to deal with learning about yourself and attempting to tailor your plan to your various strengths and weaknesses... some of which might not be so clearly known, but going through the process of planning, carrying out the plan and reassessing can surely contribute towards our getting to know ourselves better.

Individual considerations in regards to making BTC investment plans include but are not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

The first ones on the above list are more basic, and the later ones on the list are more advance, so of course, on a personal level, I have frequently striven to get the basics in order before getting into the more advanced techniques. And more advanced does not mean that such techniques need to be employed merely because we might consider ourselves to be a sophisticated player or that they should be done just because you know how to do them..  From my perspective,  it is not a matter of how smart a person might be but a matter of figuring out adequate and appropriate proportion in terms of if any of the more advanced techniques (which includes selling on the way up) are actually employed before getting the basics in order first. Including there are likely ongoing needs to revert to contemplating the basics when market conditions are in a difficult to determine place and if you may well have uncertainties about some of your own circumstances based on such volatile and potentially wild market conditions..


Yep.. We always should make sure that we have some kind of adequate and sufficient emergency way of funding matters in order that we never would have to dip into our BTC investment except during times that are completely of our own choosing... and once we get to a reasonable allocation in bitcoin and even feel that we have a large enough stake in bitcoin, there can be reasonable and prudent ways to shave some of the profits off along the way up without devolving into gambling-like practices, and surely I become skeptical of the logical justification to sell BTC on the way up that would come prior to really having established a decently meaningful BTC stake, and I am also quite skeptical of any assumptions that people sell their BTC and expect that they are going to be able to buy back at lower prices.. sure it may well happen that any of us might well have sold some BTC on the way up and then end up deciding to use the proceeds from those sold BTC to buy BTC back at lower prices, yet my personal approach to BTC has never including selling on the way up and planning to buy back lower as any part of my intended plan at the time that I sell BTC and my presumption is that any BTC that I sell are not expected to be bought back at lower prices... so in order to even get to that kind of presumption, then there is likely a need to either be well into BTC profits (in terms of dollars) and/or likely in a kind of overallocation into BTC status... such as having 60% or more in BTC when the initial allocation might have been 10% or something like that.

I also consider that BTC is such an asymmetric bet to the upside, so in that regard, none of us should feel that we really have to be taking a large stake in bitcoin in order to potentially profit stupendously in a 4-10 years or even longer timeline.  

In traditional non-BTC type investing practices, many folks may well set a 30 to 40 year timeline to build up their various investments in order to potentially be able to retire or to say fuck you to working further and to live off of their investments, whatever those may have been.  There are a lot of folks who do not reach their targets, and end up having to considerably downsize their living style or even to have to work longer than they had expected because their investments do not end up working out (or they failed to follow anything close to a reasonable plan.. and hoping to win the lottery rather than really following some kind of prudent and reasonable plan).

I personally believe that with the existence of BTC (even if we are ONLY getting into it now), any of us have the potential to not only reach fuck you status,  but to cut the timeline down considerably in our abilities to reach fuck you status.. and sure, there is nothing wrong with being a wee bit aggressive with our strategies in regards to our BTC accumulation strategies, but each and every one of us needs to exercise enough prudence and reasonableness that we are not engaged in overly rushing the progress that causes us to gamble rather than invest.  So yeah I think that $100 per week is reasonably prudent for anyone with a decent income to get started into BTC and there can be some individually tailoring or even rethinking those kinds of matters down the road, and surely if we are ONLY able to put in $10 per week or even a lower amount because we hardly have any kind of cashflow, then we better not be putting in $100 per week if we can ONLY reasonably afford $10 per week, and we better get our financial shit together before raising our amounts to higher amounts, and surely there are some folks who neither have the cashflow and/or they are not in any kind of place in which they can expect to invest higher than $10 per week, and maybe even for some of those folks, they have to really consider that less than $10 per week is more practical and prudent for them in terms of how aggressive that they are really able to be.

So, I guess this last point is that there can be ways to establish some personally tailored ways to be sufficiently aggressive in getting into BTC, and not resorting to gambling and also having some decently good likelihood that getting into BTC has contributed towards your getting in a better place 5 to 10 years down the road and even longer timelines.

I still abide by his Anti-fragile principles. Especially in the current scenario. However, when BTC keeps showing the same signs of anti-fragility. He dismisses it. 

These are his personal opinions. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Despite this, Bitcoin is the first ever cryptocurrency to be released into circulation. Also, the most trustworthy.

Thanks for that, and yeah, I did start getting BTC in 2016 -- not long after this forum account (had an older first account but I can't even remember the username and it was before I was even really interested) was made. I actually did all the right steps, inadvertently... getting BTC as frequently as I could, before price went above $1000 and even throughout 2017 and 2018. If I got any alts, it was because clients couldn't pay in BTC so I never said no.

Mistakes I learnt from was in 2017/18, was actually investing some of that precious BTC into a couple of projects. I guess many of us made that mistake. Glad I learnt that lesson though, I just don't do any of that now.

2020 liquidation was enforced. I had no choice. So that was really bad luck. By the time ATH arrived, I really didn't have much at all to make any kind of killing, and as I said, that liquidation sort of took my motivation away (imagine selling the same price as 2017 and then missing out on ATH by 11 months).

But now we're back here, and I'm really asking the question as you put it, how to rebuild, should I rebuild, and how not to make sure another 5 years or so goes by without me just getting so much heartache. Perhaps, how to account for emergencies so you don't feel so demotivated when your plans don't follow the script.