Topic: Bitcoin Will Be a Failure Even If It Hits $100,000, Says "Black Swan" Author !! - page 2. (Read 1019 times)

hahahah dont liseten FUD so much like all people above me said that bitcoin is proof of an asset can fight against inflation like Gold Did and give the fudder "DATA" of it so he can learn.

or this is another joke so he can buy bitcoin in much much lower price 

That was their thinking - we find it different from us as we are in the situation and we experience the ups and downs that could help to tell ourselves how reliable is this. No matter how many pump and ATH that we have, this still no sense to them as they are purely negative and the only things they will see are always negative as well.

We can't deny the reality, some people will understand how this work and spread good words about Bitcoin but those who are negative, can't even hear from them saying Bitcoin will succeed, it lives longer, they are simply asking it will die.

These people want to get some shadow, and find it a way to reveal these kind of statements. Something like a testing, but these people make their investments strong on cryptocurrencies and never reveal to the outer world. It might make some positive disturbance over the market. Always they want the market to be bearish for investment, as the focus will be in long term profiting.

So it means that we are in a lose-lose situation even if we hit 6 digits in the next bull run? Doesn't make sense though, but yeah I heard this kind of argument before and it's laughable and it seems that the author didn't graph want bitcoin is, and what is makes it successful even if it is still very young. Anyhow, we all know what he is saying is flawed in the beginning and let's wait for their next argument against bitcoin.

Did already looked at the other assets during this time? I think only real estate and gold have been stable but real estate is like the king. But despite that, he ignores the other good assets that everyone considers because they seemed to be a failure too as a hedge against inflation.
Well, they'll see that it'll surpass $100k soon and it's just a matter of time. No matter what they say about it and stand for, those that understands the economics and potential of bitcoin will continue to believe on it and we all do.

Of course, either I don't know your specifics or maybe I forgot some of them, but each of us can end up going through dilemmas in terms of how to treat our BTC investment/holdings.  I remember making more mistakes in my earlier years of investing (not even talking about bitcoin) because sometimes there can become some paralyses regarding where to put the value - and at the same time some compelling forces luring us to spend the money or even to put the money in places that are more like consumption rather than investment.

The same could end up coming true in bitcoin, and maybe an example might help.  I will use your September 2016 forum registration date to create my hypothetical.

Let's say that if maybe we might have had $30k in our whole investment portfolio in September 2016, and we decide to supplement our overall investment portfolio with BTC between September 2016 and June 2017.  We make some mistakes along the way, but overall we do not feel to bad about getting about 5 BTC for an average price of $1,500 per BTC (so we spent $7.5k total to make our overall investment portfolio $37.5k).

Between mid-2017 and late 2020, we go through a lot of UPs and DOWNs in BTC, and even if we presume that we did not make any further mistakes, we may look at the non-BTC portion of our investment portfolio went up about 50% during that time from $30k to $45k, and we may see that our BTC holdings went up from $7.5k to $150k (presuming a BTC price of about $30k).

Accordingly, we may feel very tempted to sell some of our BTC at $30k each (which would be $120 if we sold 4 BTC), and so if we sell at $30k, we have largely made a killing in terms of the dollar profits, but still we end up seeing the BTC price go up to $69k and then does not really correct back down below our earlier selling price, so we consider about whether we had done the right thing when we sold nearly all of our BTC stash.

 Yeah, maybe I am describing a scenario that was even better than what you ended up doing, but we can still get the idea that sometimes we make mistakes along the way in terms of how we might handle our BTC (and our psychology), even if we might have made overall dollar profits, we sometimes might have suffered a lot because our plan was not strong enough or even seemingly sustainable enough.

So yeah.. then the question become... whether to rebuild our BTC holdings and how to go about doing it in a more sustainable and less emotional way, including attempting to account for a longer rather than shorter investment timeline in regards to our BTC holdings.

Some fair words to many of us. I did realise sometimes last year my activity levels have fallen off slightly ever since I had to liquidate a significant portion end of 2020. e.g., no longer aggressively looking for ways to use Bitcoin instead of cash, and being a bit more relaxed with my own DCA. I thought it might have been because I felt I was suddenly BTC-poor, so late in the game.

Took a dip below 20k again to remind me it's never "too late" to rebuild.

As they are not please to do that. Negative people really exist and what they saw is just the opposite side of the positive view of the market. Can't rid of them.

Speculators and market expert can have their own view on the market chart. They are more suspicious of the incoming rather than being in reality. Well, we have to understand that nobody could perfectly predict what will happen next that is why I don't say they are right but probably are wrong.

Even how Bitcoin shows them everything yet people like them will always has something negative to say .

because at some point they are really not telling the truth instead they are making stories just to make the market rush so chances of buying more will be on their side.

why not stop spreading this kind of statement OP? instead of posting here better to let us not spread the words so there will no other effect in market.

because the more we published their words is the more they will speak like this.

I don't disagree with your overall points mindrust.  But BTC price does matter on a number of levels, and one of the interesting aspects of bitcoin remains that the token with value contributes with the facilitation of incentives to get people to build on it, speculate on it which contributes to the ongoing building of various other network effects in which value continues to flow into it as the soundest of monies/assets to ever have had existed and also having absolutely no real competitors, yet.. even though it has a lot of imitators and competitor wannabes - and of course enemies too.. and at the same time, sooner or later the whole world is going to have some stake in bitcoin, even if it may well take a decently long time to play out - 200 years-ish?

Many of us already realize that bitcoin has value and has already contributed to society, even if it were to go to zero, yet at the same time, if we study it for a sufficient amount of time, we also appreciate that bitcoin remains as such an asymmetric bet to the upside that we do not need to invest a whole hell of a lot into it in order to be able to profit stupendously from it and also potentially to become rich as fuck from it at the same time... sort of like killing two birds with one stone.

So yeah, like many in this thread have already said, bitcoin is already a success... yet on a personal level, we still should be attempting to figure out what are we going to do about it in terms of our own allocation levels and just ongoing considerations about how or if to include bitcoin into our lives.. and surely some of the no coiners and bitcoin naysayers may well just fight the whole idea of bitcoin until their deaths (even if they are likely smart peeps in other ways), and surely some folks will also way underallocate into BTC and even come into BTC way later than other folks... so even if systemically the late comers are likely to still benefit from bitcoin, they may well not end up benefiting as much financially as the earlier of adopters and not as much as those of us who have either aggressively invested into bitcoin (without going overboard) or at least ongoingly paid attention to having building and maintaining a sufficient stake in bitcoin during our lifetimes.


Your accusation is not completely detached from reality, but it is pretty damned close because you seem to be propounding that Bukele's approach to bitcoin goes beyond his authority - and that's why you use the term "gambling" rather than investing in terms of describing what he is doing and maybe even failing/refusing to consider that buying bitcoin or even sending out bullish and seemingly pumpening tweets about bitcoin is ONLY one aspect of what Bukele is doing in the name of El Salvador and in respect to bitcoin.

In other words, government officials are authorized to spend public money for purposes that they believe are beneficial for the population or meant to address some kind of a public need that he (as a representative) believes the spending of the "people's" money may well help to address.


So fucking what?

Some policy decisions are more controversial than others, so the more controversial ones have risks.  Perhaps it might be better if he were to spend money, take risks and employ resources to try to take over Honduras, instead?


Yes.. hopefully he is engaging in reasonably excessive custody practices and not carrying the 2k plus bitcoins on his phone.


I agree with everything in your post, but this seems to be a weird assertion. 

Nassim Taleb being negative as always. I liked his books and read them all, he gives a good perspective about risk and that humans tend to underestimate the risks of big negative events (tail risk). The problem is what negative effects are there if you invest some of your money in crypto currencies? Sure you could lose some money, but so you can when investing in stocks or commodities. He doesn't know with 100% certainty that cryptos are going to fail and he also doesn't give us an alternative that is going to make us money with certainty in an high inflation environment. Right now there is no correlation between rising inflation and a rising bitcoin price. But for someone who bought bitcoins 5 or 10 years ago it was a pretty good hedge against inflation. I think it's wrong to only look at the recent bitcoin price movement and only use it to for your analysis.

I read the article on U.today, now you @tokyohd I will ask you, do you believe what Black Swan said? Because I can't see the logic that even if the price of 100k $ per Bitcoin is still a failure for him. Is it because of inflation? I just asked. Almost everyone knows that Bitcoin started at less than 1 $ since 2009 and the history record of the highest Bitcoin price in the market is 69k $ over and now it has fallen to 19k $ over the market today. . Thinking from the price of Bitcoin then being less than 1 $ now which is 19k $ plus a BTC can you say it is a FAILURE?

Then can you say that Bitcoin is a failure if its volume on various cryptocurrency exchange platforms is around 2.7B$ more than Binance that is, there is no other exchange, can you say that Bitcoin is a failure?

Crypto market is like any other market which is volatile. Nassim Taleb has made an economical claim which is not a statistical one. People don’t buy dollars while it is depreciating and is becoming cheaper. Whereas, in the case of bitcoin the opposite is happening.

I do not think this has too much of an effect on bitcoin, after all how many people actually know who Taleb is and what he has done? A minority at best, and many of those will simply not agree with him as his posture seems to be completely against bitcoin for no valid reason at all, so the effects of any statement he could make about the future of bitcoin are minimal, but if that is the case then why make the statement if this is something he already knows as well? And most likely this is just a free way to promote himself and whatever books he has released recently or wants to release shortly after he made such a statement.

Some people make up their minds, and it is not the thing their mind believes. One such kind is this person. In simple there are people who show themselves as vegetarian, but he/she is much interested and the mind always tempt for it. But, to the outer world they show themselves as vegetarian believing it as pride or for some silly purpose. This is what he's doing with bitcoin.

many people is speaking evil of cryptocurrency and if you follow the way people is talking of Bitcoin you won't invest in cryptocurrency but i know is that Bitcoin no matter what people say about bitcoin it will not hiders the movement of cryptocurrency ro grow, why government is against Bitcoin is not officially known but people who is speaking evil of Bitcoin don't have any point of saying so, so don't depend for their talk

He won't be convinced that bitcoin has already succeeded because he's a great opposition, and that he would always prefer to tell about negativity of bitcoin and criticize for that. However, only fools and with the same mindset of him will only believe that bitcoin is a huge failure, and that won't be our loss either. As long as bitcoin threaten the whole fiat system, i think that proves alone that bitcoin did not failed but almost overcome the performance of fiat.

I have seen many celebrities speak ill of bitcoin, but I think that this strengthens bitcoin because it makes it more famous and makes it reach many places where they do not know about this technology, more than 5 years ago perhaps if bitcoin was spoken ill of, the people paid attention to them, but now say whoever says it speaks ill of an asset that represents money, people will begin to be interested and when they realize that it is not so they will begin to buy.

Perhaps there is just no getting through to this guy, seems like his mind is made up and there is just no win for bitcoin in his eyes, even $100,000 and the innovation it has brought to the world be damned, damn. 

The oppositions of bitcoin will never agree that bitcoin is already successful and is going to be a mainstream, and as bitcoin enthusiasts, we should be aware of that. That is why there's no valid reasons to believe in this mathematician as he never existed in the crypto market when its still in its infancy, and until now that bitcoin has grown and slowly starting to be matured. Even if bitcoin ends up being non valuable in the future, i would not say its a failure because bitcoin has made a lot of big changes in our lives, and we should still be thankful for it.