Topic: Bitcoin Will Be a Failure Even If It Hits $100,000, Says "Black Swan" Author !! - page 4. (Read 1020 times)

The price of Bitcoins does not put a value on the success of Bitcoins as a whole, having a currency since 2009 and it being governed by none and still on the market in 2022 does make it a huge success already, they need a hedge against inflation ofc, who said it has to be bitcoins, it can be but the volatility does not make sense in the same sector. I do think that you have to understand that market if ofc an uneventful thing and you cannot peg all your hopes onto a crypto and publicly shame it, if it's not according to your standards, we have seen Elon musk do the same, trying to use the public platform and move the price as well.

He is one more in a row who is unable to see things from the right perspective, and like the majority, believes that Bitcoin was created to make people rich overnight, or to beat inflation overnight. People who invested in Bitcoin at different times have different opinions - the one from 2015 says that Bitcoin is an excellent hedge against inflation, the other who invested at prices higher than $20 000 obviously has a completely different opinion.

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I personally do not see any logic in paying attention to people like this - let them have their own opinions - because regardless of the price and adaptation that Bitcoin will have, they will always look for a way to sell their negativity.

Bitcoin has already reached a current price of less than a dollar, I think it's already a success.

I don't know how people define failure but as an investor and bitcoin enthusiasts, we have our own belief and personally, I will not support anything that is not seeing bitcoin as a legit digital currency and as an opportunity.

We won't be able to avoid this, we will read positive and negative comments on bitcoin, it's only up to us on how we will evaluate things.

Most recently, Taleb "changed his shoes." There was a time when he wrote about bitcoin as a future and reliable asset, but he knows how to "change shoes", and surprisingly very quickly.

Now he predicts a complete collapse of bitcoin. People like to be consistent, so he writes about it. And no matter what happens in the future, there will be an analyst guru who will say that his predictions were correct.
I do not believe Taleb, and only time will tell us if he was right in his fortune-telling, and even more, insulting people who believed in bitcoin.

To create a digital economy in the long run, some people must sacrifice their fiat moneys to hold the coins for the prices to stay up.

In addition, to create a stabilized cryptocurrency, the amount of buying and selling must even out mostly. This is how you form a hedge against inflation.

We're not getting this hedge because idiots keep buying the peaks in a delusion that they will become rich, and are selling the dips in a fantasy to avoid total devstation.

What they don't realize is that once you buy a large amount of coins, you must keep holding it. Any attempt to sell at any price, high or low, will cause the market to plunge. What do you think will happen if Satoshi sells his coins (if he is indeed still alive)?

In this way, the people who hold the massed coins become something of an uncoordinated, decentralized "central bank".

Now for these idiotic price swings to stop, two things must happen:

1 - People have to stop treating Bitcoin as a stock that can be shorted and longed, that is what's causing all these waves in the first place.
2 - People must stop thinking that crypto is going to make them rich, but this will be hard to achieve while every new idiotic "money-making" technology is created on Ethereum's chain (the second largest market-cap cryptocurrency). If [when] Ethereum's devs stop rolling out new types of these technologies, crypto will suddenly become boring to most people and the prices of all cryptos will stable out. it will also stop the surge of shitcoins being created solely for money-making purposes.

You don't have to. First, because there are times when an invention goes beyond what its creator foresaw, and second, because the fact that it was not explicitly included with the term inflation hedge in the whitepaper does not mean that it was not foreseen for it, being a deflationary currency, with a decreasing supply and with a total production limit of 21 million, it looks quite like inflation hedge.


I agree with this. Focusing on the short term when analyzing bitcoin is foolish.

When I see or hear things like this, I smile. I didn't blame Nassim Taleb because even the world is a free world. As for me he is expressing his freedom of speech and thought. He is not the only person to criticize bitcoin. His prediction has no locus standi, that it has no concrete standing in the court of bitcointalk. Therefore it is null and void.
Also using one country's down fall for generalization is optional. If El Salvador lost $50, 000,000 worth of bitcoin another country might not lose such. Because it all about research and planning. And as you said, El Salvador has bought another 80 BTC again as for me that is a good purchase.
Bitcoin is not a stable coin so anyone dealing with bitcoin put it in his or her mind that it will go up and down. So with that you have to buy the ones you afford to lose if happened. As it is, Bitcoin is all time high

But why are we so concerned about this hedge against inflation which, anyway, was never even what it was supposed to be. I mean if it was, we would have seen something about it in the Bitcoin whitepaper right?

Secondly, how is it a failure if a currency that is able to buy MORE tomorrow than 10 years ago? Yes maybe Bitcoin tends to be cheaper than months and years ago, but make the time >5 years and it is always more valuable.

Which fiat can say the same?

It's a free world and free people are allowed to say anything. That doesn't necessarily mean that we all have to believe what other people are thinking. I am hearing "bitcoin is dead" from prominent personalities since a long time now. Did it happen? Nope!

Bitcoin is going through a bear cycle coupled with economic issues all around the world. So the recovery may take longer. Also failure and success have different parameters for each individual. So I don't feel bothered when I see someone is taking a dig on bitcoin. It's normal and it will never end.

He is not the first person that has run his mouth like a tap by discrediting bitcoin performance all this while, we have had many of them from other finances who are afraid of bitcoin becoming the next revolutionary asset as described by Satoshi in his paper. The problem of the current market performance is global, we know that inflation is one of the factors but we all can agree that in every bull market, the bitcoin ecosystem always seems to have new investors that will all want to buy bitcoin while some are not too prepare for it and the moment the market react, they sell to losses. We have also seen 3 bad events like 3 arrow capital, celsius and other insolvent lending protocols that affected the bitcoin price. If he can't see these things, he should focus on his book and allow bitcoin to do its thing.

We have so many of these kind lol , we are having difficulties  to even listen to what they said because most of them are  liars or seeking attention from the crypto community and in the real world? they are publishing this just to make the price lower for them to purchase more.
we have seen like them many times before and when the second end they are buying .
lets not fall into this trap of dumping the price for the manipulators to get more money.

Nassim Taleb sounds really butthurt. Did he lost money in a crypto scam or something?
He's just hating on Bitcoin. This isn't some logical and rational analysis. It's just pure hating and trolling.
Why does he even care about Bitcoin being a failure or not? He clearly hates all Bitcoiners, why don't he just let them deal with the consequences and don't bother about Bitcoin. I consider myself a Bitcoin maximalist, but I don't know what will happen with Bitcoin after 5 or 10 years. It might be a failure indeed and guys like Nassim Taleb will be like "I told you so". Just let Bitcoin go it's path. It might be a failure or it might be a success. Nobody can predict this for sure. Anyway, I really that 100K USD "failure" to happen.

I don't see any situations that which Bitcoin will be a failure, as long as the network will be up and kicking, it will be not a failure for me.
People are still using it and regarding the price of Bitcoin, it's still working, you can still use it as payment.
I think people base how Bitcoin is becoming successful or a failure on the price of Bitcoin, and how it dumps and pumps.

 

In other words, no matter if BTC can be returning back to almost nothing or it would get into the dreamed $100K zone, it will always have famous, not-so-famous and unknown critics all over the world. The thing is that they are expecting Bitcoin to be perfect all the time, in all occasions and must fit to the needs of all people. I don't think Bitcoin is made that way...and maybe this so-called expert Taleb entertained many imagined ideas on Bitcoin...he must have a victim of hearsays and he is using them to prove his point. Anyway, when BTC can be out of the crypto winter time, people this man is going nowhere to be found. In its normal cycle, during winter days, the media seems to be preoccupied with finding critics of Bitcoin and have them the days of their lives...for the purpose of getting more eyeballs to their contents.

Taleb is just using an appeal to authority fallacy here, since he has some influence and wrote some books about the economy suddenly according to him we must believe whatever comes out of his mouth and treat it as truth without any evidence, but for that to happen he will have to be an expert on bitcoin and an agreement among those experts about the future of bitcoin would need to be reached, but neither of those conditions are true, so he will need to show strong evidence of his statements and yet the opposite is the truth, the evidence shows bitcoin is a huge success already and if anything it is bound to reach even greater heights during the next years.

Hi everybody,
This is my first participation in this forum.
This guy is highly educated person. I have read about his theory "Black Swan".
According to his theory the bitcoin could be considered a "Black Swan" which may change the whole word and human history.
I believe that his theory goes strongly against his opinion about the bitcoin.
Bitcoin is here to stay and to guide the financial world.



 

Nassim Taleb may consider himself an expert but with his crypto points of view, it just shows that he's very irrational and illogical. How would bitcoin be a failure when it started with a $0 value and then it keeps on surging when the people realized its potentials. Currently, bitcoin is $19,728, so just imagine how far had bitcoin achieved in just a decade. And its most likely to reach another ATH when this current market condition will recover. Despite of all bitcoin's attacks and oppositions, it's still flattering to know that a lot have still decided not to give up and continue to tighten their faith in bitcoin.

This seems to me another one seeking attention. Or acting like that is because he fears something he doesn't like Or maybe both. He claims something but nothing to back it up. Ridiculous attempts to bring Bitcoin down at all costs. I would be ashamed, but that's only me! Trash talk, shit chat, etc! lol Keep it up!

They not losing any cents if they didn't sell their assets bought and for now maybe you see negative result towards what they do because market is on negative shape. But we are not going to see always red days as bitcoin always shows that it recovers after the dump so for sure in future what currently they do know will be beneficial for them in future especially when next halving exist again.

Kinda pointless to talk about succeeding or failing if you set arbitrary goals for these terms. If Bitcoin continues to grow in the long run, it would mean that it succeeded as an investment, without being a hedge against inflation or stock market and broad economy. Also the fact that some people use it for payment or money transfers also counts as success, even if its very limited. Failing to achieve certain milestones doesn't mean that Bitcoin generally failed.