Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again - page 20. (Read 40357 times)

There's only so much second guessing and self-contrarianism you can do.  Once pricing starts behaving in such a way that obvious analysis no longer applies then it's time to step WAAAAY back and take another look at both your strategy and whatever it is you're trading.

You're looking at a market with roughly 6000 participants.  A very easily manipulated, unregulated and somewhat opaque market.  One person's changing sentiment can mean the difference between being right and being wrong short term, and daytrade time frame charting simply can't cope with that.  Plus, this is a strongly trending item -- do you adjust your charts for the long term trend?  If you don't apply trend-adjusted logarithmic smoothing you could be looking at a stable or slightly increasing pattern on a chart when in reality the price movement is down based on a long term trend.   Another reason I don't consider absolute price points of weeks or months ago as exact resistance or support levels.

I don't think the BTC market is big enough to day trade.  In swing trade time frames or longer the pricing movement is still rational and predictable.

That said, IMO the sudden transition from explosive growth in both difficulty and pricing to an effectively zero variation flatline isn't natural.  Bots have nothing to do with that, all they do is narrow the ask/bid spread.

Oh, and OP: you're wrong.  If bitcoin doesn't go to 0 it's going higher.  The long term trend has not been broken and shows no sign of weakness.

I was recently ~95% convinced $14 was the new upper limit, but people keep buying and we are now slightly over 14 again.
When something is so obvious as "With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value", markets tend to surprise you and do the opposite (at least short-term)

Best post ever. I have noticed all the crap you get if you take any stance other than bitcoin will be worth millions in a month.

If people think the bitcoin will be worth so much in the future, who the heck is going to use it as a means of exchange when it is appreciating so quickly? Or is that not even the point of bitcoin? Is it like a rare collectible?

Seems like volume is down in the markets as the bitcoin slowly stabalizes.  With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value as the make a million dollars in two months interest drops off.

Meh..there's always new people ready to join any new venture. And it wouldnt hurt to get rid of the 'riff-raff' anyway...

We have a lot of day traders.... or we had. Many of them care nothing for Bitcoin except as a way to obtain USD.

There is nothing wrong with bot trading.


Your attention span is that short, sure.

Grown-ups take a longer view.

Bitcoin has always been a risky proposition.  Anyone who has ever thought otherwise is a fool.

"no forward moves of late" and "very little upside going forward" is clearly a troll, or a daytrader.  The sample size (timescale) is far too small to make any such prediction.

I'm waiting for it to bottom at $0.10 so that I can buy 50k Bitcoins.

 Bitcoin will reach $20 again!
~1.5 days after it bottoms near $1.50, or 6.50 or 7.50, or 10.25.........

He's not trolling. I have the exact same stance.


If gox doesn't reinstate fees immediately and put forth actions to deter bots, bitcoin is going to have a MAJOR MAJOR uphill battle to climb.


Attention spans don't last 3 days, much less 14 days. There is going to be a deeeeeep decline in interest.

I SECOND THE MOTION. MOVE ON IF YOU'RE TRULY OUT OF THE BITCOIN MARKET!

GO back to February when it went over $1. It took 1.75 months to go back above $1 again. What technical indicators are you looking at?

I'm not against the idea that bitcoins could go below $10 briefly. But I am of the opinion that just because it isn't profitable to mine doesn't mean the market is dead. If you know anything about anything concerning trading you will know that there are slow times and there are fast times. They oscillate.

Sure, let's go sledding...
Last Mt.Gox: 14 (intraday high: 14.09)

I like keeping idiot topics like this on the front page until they are conclusively proven to be wrong. Look at lardycake, that idiot hasn't bothered following up since we eviscerated his foolish claims.

This one will fall too, just give it some time

Last Mt.Gox: 15.13

Agree 100%.. It seems most people posting on the BTC forums are new to the internet.
Not everyone who disagrees with your opinion, or posts something that slightly irritates you, is a "troll".

Not everyone with short hair is a fascist nazi. Not everyone with a fur cap is a 'commie'.

That is all.

+1

Get the fu** out please because we don't need you here. And you don't need to be here obviously.

$20

ummm...  i looked at your post #51, and you were quoting me.

however, i suppose you have a point.

i would allow the OP to escrow a sum of USD equal to BTC at $20.00000001 USD (the point at which i win and collect), so his escrow account shows no loss over six months in the event he wins.  the escrow holder can convert, if needed, to pay me.  my BTC won't need to be converted to USD, since it's a BTC bet and i pay at the value then.

whether the bears own btc or not given the way this bet is constructed is irrelevant.  since none of us really knows which way the relative price of btc to USD is going to go, whichever currency you bet with is irrelevant.

as i said above, given we're betting on market price, all relevant information about btc to USD is already priced into the market and its reasonable to expect what we know today that the price one year from now will be exactly the same.

something special (unknown info) in the market would have to happen for it to appreciate 6/14 x 100 to $20 and that places the odds in favor of the bear.

so make a bet if bear looses in a year he will pay a bull 100 btc  and if bull looses he will pay a bear 100 usd