How is $20 looking less and less likely again?
So BTCs drop quite a bit over the past 2-3 days - there isn't any reason why it wouldnt go back up soon. The "crash" (if you can easily call it that) is a result of a few things, at least what I gather, including the MyBitcoins scam and the fact that BTCs hit $20 so fast at first for example. The MyBitcoins scam was an immediate and one time occurrence that'll balance out very shortly.
To say that it won't go back to $20 for a long time is a bit of a long stretch.
To say that it'll NEVER go back to $20 again is an even longer stretch.
This is what early adopters would like to believe, but the crash is due to people realizing bitcoins have no purpose and hence no value unless you are a drug user who prefers online transactions. If the market were more liquid, I could see bitcoins having some value to investors, but judging by the recent lack of depth on the buyside, this is clearly not the case.
Isn't this analysis ignoring one big thing - It's hard/time consuming/expensive to go from USD -> BTC right now, or really any non-digital currency.
Look at the timing of past surges - There is money trying to get in, and just not getting past the funding hurdle?
Add to that the series of amateur hour mistakes from various bitcoin organizations and thefts, this seems like a pretty extreme negative scenario... until the funding part eases up, at which point the market gets an infusion of hot cash and we're back to the races.
Are you mindful of those factors? It seems like your analysis is purely based on the charting, which is an incomplete picture by any standards.
