Bitcoin will never reach $20 again - page 21.

CurbsideProphet

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Quote from: Jaime Frontero on July 09, 2011, 02:41:42 PM

except for this: in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

It's not about being secure in whether you'll win or not. It's the fact that even if you DO win, you can STILL LOSE. See my example.

Quote

and where does your 100 BTC come from? my original bet was 50. Roll Eyes

Cypherdoc. Who I quoted. Not you. Not that the amount of BTC's is relevant anyway.

Jaime Frontero

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Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:33:16 PM

Quote from: Jaime Frontero on July 09, 2011, 02:28:09 PM

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC. my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection. it adds flavor...

In Bitcoins, yes. But a bear would believe Bitcoins would lose value otherwise why take the bet? As an example, lets say in a year BTC's are worth $5, so technically the bear wins. This would be the transaction:

Bear buys 100BTC today at $1,400 (approx.)
Bear wins 100 BTC one year from now.
Bear takes his 200 BTCs from the escrow and cashes out at $1,000.

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year. Only a moron would take that bet.

except for this: in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

i am certainly so.

so no.

and where does your 100 BTC come from? my original bet was 50. Roll Eyes

EDIT: and $5 is just silly, methinks...

cypherdoc

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Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:28:31 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:24:48 PM

Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:21:45 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not. the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20. i said "exceed".

Yeah there's a point where they win, as long as the price stays between whatever they buy at and $20. But the odds are still heavily in your favor.

i disagree. the odds are in the bears favor b/c given all the info we have today based on price action, the price one year from now should be exactly what it is now, in the 14's.

in order for Jamie and i to win our bets, the price has to appreciate over 6/14x100 percent for us to win. this is irrespective of whether he owns btc now or not.

wolftaur

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Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:33:16 PM

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year. Only a moron would take that bet.

Since when does the internet have a shortage of morons?

CurbsideProphet

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Quote from: Jaime Frontero on July 09, 2011, 02:28:09 PM

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC. my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection. it adds flavor...

In Bitcoins, yes. But a bear would believe Bitcoins would lose value otherwise why take the bet? As an example, lets say in a year BTC's are worth $5, so technically the bear wins. This would be the transaction:

Bear buys 100BTC today at $1,400 (approx.)
Bear wins 100 BTC one year from now.
Bear takes his 200 BTCs from the escrow and cashes out at $1,000.

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year. Only a moron would take that bet.

CurbsideProphet

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Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:24:48 PM

Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:21:45 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not. the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20. i said "exceed".

Yeah there's a point where they win, as long as the price stays between whatever they buy at and $20. But the odds are still heavily in your favor.

Jaime Frontero

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Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:21:45 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC. my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection. it adds flavor...

cypherdoc

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Quote from: CurbsideProphet on July 09, 2011, 02:21:45 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not. the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20. i said "exceed".

CurbsideProphet

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Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way. They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow. If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet. If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

xlcus

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Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:42:55 AM

What people are actually doing is selling, not buying.

Surely people must be buying, otherwise who are the sellers selling to?

k

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Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

denominated in BTC, so any bears taking the bet would be losing twice so to speak. Grin

TraderTimm

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BTC 'Economist' - We'd better get this out of the way - since you'll be proven wrong in the coming weeks.

Enjoy your trophy of forum fail.

tymothy

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Quote from: cypherdoc on July 09, 2011, 02:08:22 PM

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.

Oooo smackdown. Who's stepping up to the plate?

cypherdoc

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i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year.

datguywhowanders

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Quote from: Jaime Frontero on July 09, 2011, 10:09:25 AM

Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:55:29 AM

Quote from: Serge on July 09, 2011, 09:52:26 AM

Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:51:11 AM

Quote from: Serge on July 09, 2011, 09:49:38 AM

Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:42:55 AM

I just don't get why if everyone is so confident Bitcoin WILL reach $20 again demand is so low? The markets tell the story. What people are actually doing is selling, not buying. Put your money where your mouth is! At least I have done that by selling.

You are telling us that you don't believe in Bitcoin but you are sticking around for... ? for the lulz?

Yes I do find it an interesting project.

And the reason you are pushing your agendas is...? (no need to answer this)

Stating a prediction is not pushing an agenda. For me, this thread will be most entertaining when I bump it in the future.

ok.

tell you what.

i'll bet you 50 BTC that Bitcoin will exceed an exchange rate of $20 USD - without the openendedness of your blanket prediction: that is, at some or any point within the next six months.

in escrow.

Quote

Put your money where your mouth is!

no PMs. open on the forum.

in or out?

I think this is how every single one of these threads needs to be handled Cheesy

bcearl

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Quote from: AtlasONo on July 09, 2011, 09:41:02 AM

Criticize bitcoin: troll

Speculate in the wrong way: troll

Opinion against the status quo? You bet that's a troll

Roll Eyes

you guys. If you really think it's a troll DON'T FUCKING POST and let it fall off the page.

I don't think he is a troll, I think he is a serious economist. I think serious economists produce bullshit only.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Serge on July 09, 2011, 09:15:42 AM

If you liquidated your position in Bitcoin, you might as well liquidate your presence on this forum and move on with your life.

+1000 LOL!

Raoul Duke

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Quote from: AtlasONo on July 09, 2011, 09:45:32 AM

Quote from: kiba on July 09, 2011, 08:59:59 AM

This thread is worthless.

]

A 100% pointless post coming from a moderator!! Who runs this cesspool? Get your shit together!

Agreed! I run a couple forums and worthless threads go straight to the recycle bin, they don't get replies from moderators! Roll Eyes

fascistmuffin

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Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 08:58:34 AM

It is remarkable how often the word troll is used around here. Truly amazing. And, we have a poll where something like 1/3 of the people here expect Bitcoin to grow 7-fold to over 100 by the end of the year, and they are seen as the reasonable ones.

Welcome to the hivemind.

Usually why I don't bother with speculation threads unless I'm bored.

Jaime Frontero

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Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:55:29 AM

Quote from: Serge on July 09, 2011, 09:52:26 AM

Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:51:11 AM

Quote from: Serge on July 09, 2011, 09:49:38 AM

Quote from: BTC Economist on July 09, 2011, 09:42:55 AM

I just don't get why if everyone is so confident Bitcoin WILL reach $20 again demand is so low? The markets tell the story. What people are actually doing is selling, not buying. Put your money where your mouth is! At least I have done that by selling.

You are telling us that you don't believe in Bitcoin but you are sticking around for... ? for the lulz?

Yes I do find it an interesting project.

And the reason you are pushing your agendas is...? (no need to answer this)

Stating a prediction is not pushing an agenda. For me, this thread will be most entertaining when I bump it in the future.

ok.

tell you what.

i'll bet you 50 BTC that Bitcoin will exceed an exchange rate of $20 USD - without the openendedness of your blanket prediction: that is, at some or any point within the next six months.

in escrow.

Quote

Put your money where your mouth is!

no PMs. open on the forum.

in or out?

Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again - page 21. (Read 40347 times)