Topic: Bitcoin will (probably) go lower. (Read 525 times)

I understand, prices are always affected by supply and demand. Currently this positive trend is expected to persist throughout the year as we had the previous year in a negative trend. Bearish has passed, but price correction is always possible.

We must not only think about the potential gains while ignoring the potential losses. About long-term investment, I hope we are really ready to get more budget if one day the price drops to low level. This means that the buy on dip strategy is my focus if the price drops deeply.

Bitcoin is an asset, so it’s obvious that sometimes it’s price will rise up and some times it will fall. Everything depends on the traders, and the demand they have for the Bitcoins. If the demand is high, then due to the limited supply of Bitcoins, the price will automatically go up, and the reverse happens when the demand is low. You can easily see this by focusing on a particular exchange’s transactions. If there are more buy orders then sell orders for the coin, then it proves that the demand is currently high. Moreover currently Bitcoins price have increased significantly, if we compare to last week. So tighten your seat belt, as Bitcoins can launch anytime to the sky.

Correction is a part of how this market works but I think they are different from what the OP is expecting. The price that he calls is already too low for a correction. You gave an example last year that the price drop after reaching its ATH but I think what happened there is also not a correction but that is already a bear market. It happens after a bull run.

A bear market can be more brutal than a correction so many people already expected that the price can dip below $45k because it already touch the $40k level which is already lower than a normal correction. It was a long bear that happened last year so I salute those who stay put. Soon it's time for you guys to be rewarded. Just a little bit of wait.

Even though bitcoin has been rising for the past few days, of course we understand that the price can be corrected again at any time, just like in 2021 which has seen it continue to rise until it peaks at $69k, everyone thought it would not fall below $45k again, but only less than a year the price hitting lows and dropping more than 50% by the end of 2022.

The most important key to profit when we invest in bitcoin is to always be optimistic and patient to hold, as long as we can be patient then we can profit, high price fluctuations give us the opportunity to get big profits in a short time, and a few days ago, of course, many were surprised by the price it dropped below $20k, but 3 days after it went below $20k bitcoin skyrocketed to touch $26k.

so what about week after your post Bitcoin recovered and get even higher ? breaking 26k from that what you called Below 20k fall? wondering how much you have earned from buying in that low if you trust bitcoin.
not that what you see will happen mate , sometimes it is the opposite of what you are thinking that will happen.
trust me mate i have been there before .

Honestly, I really expect bitcoin to fall a lot more, and it would be great if we get a new bottom for this bear season. That's actually a good thing, a golden opportunity to accumulate lots of bitcoins cheaply. As a long-term investor, I am quite confused when people want bitcoin to quickly increase in price. What's the benefit when bitcoin goes up, and we don't have a lot of bitcoins to sell?

Given what's going on, it's hard for bitcoin to make a new bottom, but anything is possible, and looking at the world economy, there are still many instabilities. I still hope there will be another market crash, so I have a chance to accumulate more.

Bitcoin prices are good as in this moment. Bitcoin Pump and when the price is below $ 19K still no one bought it and hopes to continue down. Actually the opportunity to buy Bitcoin will continue to exist, no matter the current price, the important thing is your main target at what price and hold until it reaches that price. The $ 20K price area is still very cheap, remember that Bitcoin has reached ATH $ 64K and it can certainly be achieved again. Just how to do financial management to be able to get Bitcoin at low prices at this time. Provide reserves of money when the price of bitcoin continues to drop.

It is true that it is difficult to say what the value of bitcoin will be and many people are waiting for that matter. But from what I can really see in the movement of bitcoin today in the graph, it can be seen if manipulators are positioned to lower it in the market.
 
     They are just waiting for the right signal when they will sell their bitcoin holdings. And then wait again for it to drop to the value they expect to buy it, which is like you say DCA applications.

If it is going to $25k, so I would say that we are bullish about it.

But the thing that you mentioned, we really don't know the price movement, and as far as predicting the price, very hard to say, although there could be factors that we need to consider.

In any case, DCA is our best friend is we wanted to accumulated overtime.

At the time the OP made this post the price of Bitcoin came down to around $20000 and soon after it turned bullish again and crossed $26000. Bitcoin is really hard to predict. Because Bitcoin can change its direction at any time. It can be bullish in the midst of a thousand negativity and it can go down again without any manifest issues. Investor trends are a big issue. Anyway, you are right that in any current scenario DCA method would qualify for buying bitcoins. Bitcoin price is currently just below $25000 and can be either bullish or bearish from the current price.

Whether short-term or long-term, no prediction is actually easy to do. We were all pretty much hoping that the price if once crossed $25k, will at least reach $30k before coming down, but the opposite had happened. It almost touched $26.5k and took a U-turn and it roaming around $24k since then. Now, the question is, will it go up again from here or we will see it going toward $20k again?

Though we don't really know, but as the conditions look, I believe it will dip a bit more from this point. It may not reach $20k this time, but around $22k will be the target area.

Sure, I can believe that. It's something I've always considered to be honest - the self-fulfilling prophecy of Bitcoin price increase increasing price. All that's needed is for buying pressure to drop by 50% after the selling pressure drops by 50% post-halving and you'd have a sideways market, not a bull market. For all we know by 2024 we'll be mid-recession and the halving won't have the same affect as previous times.

But until that happens, price remains in a 4-year cycle regardless. Even if it's driven by the speculation of increased prices due to decrease in inflation, rather than genuinely because of inflation decrease.


One thing I have noticed is in the past few days (during the rise from $20K back to $25K) Bitcoin lost it's correlation to S&P and Nasdaq and instead correlated with Gold. It's not often it happens, in fact Bitcoin is usually correlated to "risk-on" assets as you probably know (and I think have referenced). Whereas now that correlation is breaking, so even in a recession Bitcoin could thrive like Gold has in the past.

It's just a theory, but as I've always said Bitcoin is correlated with stock market until it's not. And for the first time in a long-time, it's lost it's correlation. So all the bearish outlook of stocks projected onto Bitcoin isn't going to be relevant anymore unless the correlation returns (simple reality imo). Ironically, previous times Bitcoin has lost this correlation has been at the start of bull markets or during recoveries.

The 2% was not used as a comparison between two subjects at the same rate, it was a comparison of what 2% would mean now versus what 86% meant then, the income of a successful restaurant versus half of the GDP of a country. It's not 2% vs 2% .


Not a bad deal, I've been in way too many discussions in which I couldn't even reach this point, the other poster not allowing me even to have a different opinion.


Or it's not a coincidence and it's triggered by the belief that the BTC will go up, with users buying in and thus themselves self-fulfilling their prophecies. If you have a ton user and hey all claim that when the halving will happen the price will go up and everybody expects that and is not selling then you have the perfect market conditions for a bull-run, but it's again created by beliefs nothing else.


Well, this one we will see it now since I'm looking at WTI hitting $67, so let's see where it goes. Banks being bailed out was really a bumper here, a failure in doing so would have propelled BTC even with a recession incoming, so, uncharted territory here, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up at 20k or 40k and just raise an eyebrow with 10k more in each direction.

Well I guess we'll agree to disagree then! Based on store of value, I'd much prefer a 2.2% correction, per hour, than a -86% correction lasting a year.
Mainly because we're not talking about lunch money anymore, we're talking about much larger investments as well as investment firms.


I am a believer that the 4-year cycles will eventually pass, but so far this simply hasn't been the case, mainly because it's far from "magical" and a lot more "programmed" into existence. Probably once Bitcoin's inflation drops below 1% or less it's not going to have as much affect it dropping in half anymore, but otherwise even the drop from 3.4% to 1.7% still had a dramatic effect it seems. Just my perspective obviously.

Either that or it's a massive coincidence that each time the inflation drops in half that price ends up in a bull market... which sure, why not, it could be. But otherwise with 50% less supply available to sell from miners, it's obvious to see why with a stable demand price would increase. It should only be by 2x logically speaking, but obvious Bitcoin's price movements aren't always very logical.


I'm not arguing that inflation or deflation doesn't affect Bitcoin, quite the opposite in fact. I'm stating that Bitcoin's change in inflation is what drives price up and then eventually down, not fiat based inflation. Of course inflation affects an asset, as that's exactly what I'm arguing, but to me the question is which type of inflation, the ones humans have control over, or the one that is beyond our power (well phrased btw).

And sure I don't deny that you could be right here, ie speculating that the scare of a recession was over that Bitcoin rebounded. But personally, I don't think that fear has really gone away yet.\

True. If there are movement that everyone is expecting, that will be a more downfall in the price because Mt.gox is said to released those old BTC to its creditors. IDK if what is the update about it. Is it done already or not? But if not then this might still threaten us in the long run so people must not be really happy right now.

There's no problem for those who are trading and short term investors because they can sell now and then wait again for a dump to buy another set of BTC. I once said that short term prediction is more accurate than in long term but it seems that I am wrong and you are right, and this scenario that we see lately is a proof to that.

Yeah and it did go up to $26k, and thanks to the OP's advice, it did go lower and so it's time to buy during that time and hopefully did and if they do then obviously then can make money today or when the price rose to $26k and sell.

However, for the majority, we are still going to hold and wait for more good news to come.

But the best thing to happen to us is to wait for the halving next year, because that will be the catalyst for a massive bull run.

I agree that perspective is definitely the case but that becomes a bit individualistic when you look at it. Just because bitcoin losing 2% is a big amount in GDP for Italy, doesn't mean that it is for UK, and just because 2% is bad for you, doesn't mean it is for me.

In the end, let the people act as if they are going to end up with a bad situation and I disagree with that, we are going to end up with something that is much better for everyone in the end and we should be seeing those even smallest drops to end up with a big increase in the end. That is why it should be noted that we should be always optimistic about it because even falls have recoveries as we have seen just recently.

Many people said that before, and I include myself among those people, and still bitcoin dropped for a few moments below that level due to the issues the USDC coin had, so we must never discard a scenario like that even if it may seem unlikely to us, however even if it happened I would think of this as a good thing as it can give you an opportunity to accumulate bitcoin for a very good price, and then you can reap the rewards once the price of bitcoin goes up once again.

Bitcoin is not all about the USA. It's a global phenomenon.