Once inflation started climbing bitcoin was only going down, every single announcement over CPI triggered another dump, the only time it jumped was when, surprise, the announcement came that inflation has cooled off. No, contrary to what was expected by some, in times of rising inflation BTC did poorly, actually managing a first, that is going below the previous ATH level, and not by a tiny fraction.
Technically not every bearish CPI announcement caused another dump, this is just retrospectively what people perceived to have happened. Can give examples if required...
There were a few where price had already dumped, so instead price rallied to the upside (last year in particular), or otherwise just went sideways for longer.
But everyone only remember the times when priced dumped after the announcement, as opposed to when it didn't or the opposite occured...
And you can see it again now, Silvergate and the FED saying rates will keep going higher and there you have it, 10% in a flash and sub 20k.
After rejection from $25K a lot of people saw $20K incoming, as a usual bull market retracement. Obviously within a longer term bear market it looks a lot more severe, as it well could be.
Silvergate bankruptcy or not, after $23K broke I was expecting $20K to come next. Maybe Silvergate accelerated that process, but it seemed likely long before that news broke imo.
I'm not just saying this in hindsight, I stated numerous times in different threads that either $25K breaks and we go to $30K, or we go back to $20K...
No, BTC doesn't thrive in an inflation either, and for sure not in a looming economic recession, it has ceased to overwhelmingly be a safe haven refuge and is more a tradable asset that moves as stocks do.
Maybe you can help to unravel the followings data then, as so far nobody has been able to explain the following:
2014-2015 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2018-2019 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2022-2023 bear market (with high inflation): Bitcoin drops -77% from ATH after approx one year
So despite the subjectivity of Bitcoin going below previous ATH for first time, or below 200 Week MA - which is more about the lack of blow off top in 2021 than a poor performance in 2022 - why has Bitcoin performed better after 15 months+ in it's 2022-2023 bear market with high inflation than previous bear markets without? Is it because it will do worse eventually, ie more than -83% drop below $12K?
For clarity, I'm not questioning why Bitcoin has dropped -77% since ATH, as to me it seems obvious (in hindsight) that this is what Bitcoin does every 4 years and has done so for 12. I'm trying to understand why many are speculating that Bitcoin will do worse in 2023 than previous bear markets and go sub $12K (-83%) when so far after a year since ATH it has performed much better than usual. Anything above $12K isn't worse...
The only logical answer I've heard so far is that without the blow-off top in 2021, then price performed better because of that. The lack of blow-off top could be attributed to anticipated inflation, so therefore inflation was priced into the market in 2021, hence Bitcoin didn't do as well as usual or expected, as opposed to 2022? But with the same logic, a recession could well be priced in a year in advance as well.
So does this then mean that Bitcoin's rise in 2021 was due to impending high inflation (after post covid19 money printing etc)? I'm not very convinced, again, I think this is just 4-year all over again.
This is BTC correlation with Nasdaq, almost the entire year it stayed up closer to 1 than to half a point and din;t go blow zero till the very end finally diverging.
This is true, no-one can deny the correlation. But at the same time, I'm not particularly bearish about the S&P or Nasdaq. There was a lot of selling 2022 with the anticipation of a recession and therefore a long-term bear market to follow (like 10 year long or something). But so far this recession hasn't happened yet it seems (even though it obviously still could), and Bitcoin could de-correlate at any point like it has in the past.
The bright side in this is that most likely once the whole inflation and recession crap is finally done and gone the increase would probably overshadow everything else on the markets.
The irony being that if the high inflation / recession clears up by 2024/2025, then a Bitcoin recovery & bull market would likely be contributed to this factor, rather than it's reliable and unbroken 4-year cycles
