He is suggesting the amount of inactive accounts will go up 2 or 3 or 5 fold.
Indeed I am - thank you for noticing.
A couple of people have focused on DT1, this isn't about them - my example went down the pecking order DT1, then DT2 then non DT ranked members. I could have easily (If I had a breakdown of the numbers) looked at Legendary, Hero ... down the line. I also mentioned that although statistically it could be x of this rank, y of that rank and so on none of this can be said for certain and could be x^2.3 of this rank and y^0.9 of that rank.
This is a perfect example of what I am looking for in this thread - evidence that a user stopped posting at this particular time, not after the storm has passed and they then don't come back (if at all) for a very long time.
Ok, so I’ve been in contact with a confirmed COVID-19 positive over the past 10 days, but have not developed any symptoms (this is true, and fortunately the person is recovering fine). Should I not post in the coming days, either the synthons have made their appearance, or I’ve got an overwhelming amount of work to do, even on lockdown (although in the latter scenario I could always pop a post or two every now and then).
I hope you and your acquaintance are making a speedy recovery. Please keep us updated if you can.
I don't think this pandemic will result in a significant change in the number being hacked or reactivated.
Nor do I. I also tend to think bitcointalk members are younger than average and would probably have a lower mortality rate than the general population--but I have no data to support this, just my impressions based on experience.
Being more socially aware can be a good thing when self isolating and the evidence suggest the older you are, the more likely this virus will claim your life.
This kind of meta-analysis should be sought after in order to ascertain the definitive death rate.
My intention with this thread is to alert people here that there will be some users who may just stop posting during this time, some we know well, others we may never have read even a single word of.
We shoudn't consider a Legendary (or a DT1/DT2) user to be dead from the COVID-19 if they fall silent.
All good points in your post, I hadn't intended to focus on DT1, if you have that impression, then I'm sorry you thought that. DT1 accounts are more valuable for resale once hacked - kenzawak is an example of a multiple hacked account.
There's a lot of users that keep a eye on "high" level profiles on this forum. When I returned to the forum from a period of activity I had several users contact me to provide a signed message from addresses that I had previously posted on the forum. Dating all the way back to 2015.
This is excellent news, it just needs to be tempered with the known fact that if a user awakens in a few years time who fell silent now, the user may well have died and the account has been compromised.
If a hacker suspects a particular account became inactive at this time, then they could put more effort into hacking that account unnoticed.
As for the estimation of the deaths, that would be assuming that the spread of age on the forum is the same as the statistics in other countries. The statistics are chance of death will widely vary due to the fact that Bitcoin, the internet, and cryptocurrencies in general apply to a certain individual, and I would estimate that the younger generation is far more likely to be interested than those that are in their seventies plus. That also brings up the fact that there's likely a lot of programmers, and other users which can work from home, and significantly reduce the chance of getting infected. Unfortunately, due to the varying circumstances you cannot apply the same statistics of the current virus to the forum users.
From the scarce hard data I found, the younger you are, the less likely you are to contract let alone die from COVID-19 so the game bois can safely keep playing minecraft in their mom's bedrooms.
I would estimate that the majority of accounts that can be hacked, have already been hacked due to the database compromises in 2015. Most active users would have likely changed their credentials or their credentials were already good enough to withstand the attacks that a malicious user could've performed on the hashed data.
How does the saying go,
the price of freedom is eternal vigilance...