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Topic: bitfloor needs your help! - page 6. (Read 177459 times)

hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1002
March 27, 2013, 09:39:40 AM
Another 50 years with no interest and Roman will have paid us back!!!
Or, you could incur legal expenses and spread FUD and make sure he has no way to pay back. Great idea!
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 251
March 27, 2013, 08:50:53 AM
Did bitfloor just make a payment?  No announcement but my books wouldn't balance and I login to see an unexplained increased in BTC.

I got a payment. It looks like about 1% of the outstanding BTC debt. Good News!
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
March 27, 2013, 08:21:53 AM
What's a "bid for debt to gather enough?"
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
March 27, 2013, 08:12:25 AM
Did bitfloor just make a payment?  No announcement but my books wouldn't balance and I login to see an unexplained increased in BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
March 22, 2013, 10:51:13 AM
The new FinCEN regs are going to put BitFloor out of business.  Adios, 12 BTC...

Oh?  What are the issues you see?


I'm concerned about this, too. If Bitfloor doesn't have the required licenses, and is forced to buy the new license AND show that they have $100,000 in liquidity, which may be impossible for them to do, they may be forced to shut down, and everyone who was owed any BTC will be screwed.

Is there anything official from Bitfloor out there to let us know what the situation is?

I read the Texas Banking Commission rules some years back when I thought I might want to start an exchange with SLL/USD, but nothing that might apply to Bitcoin in the present.  I think I was dismayed then when an internet bank needed $10,000,000.

But I assume that the liquidity could come from investors.  If you think he needs it, and you have a strong interest in keeping his business alive, you might be forming a consortium and seeing what funding that consortium has the will to use, so that you are ready to act if the opportunity presents itself.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
March 22, 2013, 10:43:23 AM
The new FinCEN regs are going to put BitFloor out of business.  Adios, 12 BTC...

Oh?  What are the issues you see?


I'm concerned about this, too. If Bitfloor doesn't have the required licenses, and is forced to buy the new license AND show that they have $100,000 in liquidity, which may be impossible for them to do, they may be forced to shut down, and everyone who was owed any BTC will be screwed.

Is there anything official from Bitfloor out there to let us know what the situation is?
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
March 20, 2013, 11:07:09 AM
I modified this to show the number of bitcoins that could have been bought had bitfloor been immediately buying coins at another exchange as fees were received (assuming price was the same at both exchanges).




updated script if someone wants to host it:
Code:

#Get Data from bitcoincharts
bitfloor<-read.table("http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=bitfloorUSD&start=0",
                     sep=","
)

##Convert Times from Unix
times=matrix(nrow=nrow(bitfloor), ncol=6)
time.string=NULL
for(i in 1:nrow(bitfloor)){
  timeStamp<-ISOdatetime(1970,1,1,0,0,0) + bitfloor[i,1]
 
  date<-strsplit(as.character(timeStamp), " ")[[1]][1]
  yr<-as.numeric(strsplit(date, "-")[[1]][1])
  mo<-as.numeric(strsplit(date, "-")[[1]][2])
  day<-as.numeric(strsplit(date, "-")[[1]][3])
 
  ToD<-strsplit(as.character(timeStamp), " ")[[1]][2]
  hr<-as.numeric(strsplit(ToD, ":")[[1]][1])
  min<-as.numeric(strsplit(ToD, ":")[[1]][2])
  sec<-as.numeric(strsplit(ToD, ":")[[1]][2])
 
  times[i,]<-cbind(yr,mo,day,hr,min,sec)
  time.string<-rbind(time.string,as.character(timeStamp))
}

bitfloor<-cbind(times,bitfloor)
colnames(bitfloor)<-c("Yr","Mo","Day","Hr","Min","Sec","UnixT","Price","Vol")

##Set First Timestamp bitfloor was open after hack
post.hack.open.time<-as.numeric(head(
  bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,1]==2012 & bitfloor[,2]==9 & bitfloor[,3]==21),],
  1)[7])

##Divide into pre and post hack data
pre.hack.bitfloor<-bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,7]post.hack.bitfloor<-bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,7]>(post.hack.open.time-1)),]

#Generate cumulative volume and fees
pre.hack.bitfloor<-cbind(pre.hack.bitfloor,
                         cumsum(pre.hack.bitfloor[,8]*pre.hack.bitfloor[,9]),
                         cumsum(pre.hack.bitfloor[,8]*pre.hack.bitfloor[,9])*.005
)
colnames(pre.hack.bitfloor)[10:11]<-c("cumUSD.Vol","cumFee")

post.hack.bitfloor<-cbind(post.hack.bitfloor,
                          cumsum(post.hack.bitfloor[,8]*post.hack.bitfloor[,9]),
                          cumsum(post.hack.bitfloor[,8]*post.hack.bitfloor[,9])*.003
)
colnames(post.hack.bitfloor)[10:11]<-c("cumUSD.Vol","cumFee")
#

##Set Timestamp of first payout
payback.time.one<-as.numeric(head(
  bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,1]==2012 & bitfloor[,2]==12 & bitfloor[,3]==1),],
  1)[7])

##Split into pre and post payout
pre.payout.one<-post.hack.bitfloor[which(post.hack.bitfloor[,7]post.payout.one<-post.hack.bitfloor[which(post.hack.bitfloor[,7]>(payback.time.one-1)),]

#Generate cumulative volume and fee data
pre.payout.one[,10:11]<-cbind(
  cumsum(pre.payout.one[,8]*pre.payout.one[,9]),
  cumsum(pre.payout.one[,8]*pre.payout.one[,9])*.003
)

post.payout.one[,10:11]<-cbind(
  cumsum(post.payout.one[,8]*post.payout.one[,9]),
  cumsum(post.payout.one[,8]*post.payout.one[,9])*.003
)
#

##Get months from unix timestamps
month.labels=data.frame()
for(y in 2012:2013){
  for(m in 1:12){
    unixT<-bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,1]==y & bitfloor[,2]==m),7][1]
    month.labels<-rbind(month.labels,cbind(unixT,month.name[m]))
  }
}
month.labels<-month.labels[which(!is.na(month.labels[,1])),]
month.labels<-month.labels[2:nrow(month.labels),]

##Misc
est.payed.back<-.017
Total.Value.Stolen<-25000*tail(bitfloor[,8],1)
Total.Value.Payed<-est.payed.back*Total.Value.Stolen

##Make Plots
png("bitfloor.png", height=800, width=1300, pointsize=15)
layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,3,2,2,2,4), 2, 4, byrow = TRUE))
plot(bitfloor[,7],bitfloor[,8], type="n", xaxt="n",
     xlab="Time",
     ylab="USD/BTC",ylim=c(0,(max(bitfloor[,8])+5)),
     main="Bitfloor Price History"
)
axis(1,at=as.numeric(as.matrix(month.labels[,1])),
     labels=as.character(month.labels[,2]))
lines(pre.hack.bitfloor[,7],pre.hack.bitfloor[,8], col="Green")
lines(pre.payout.one[,7],pre.payout.one[,8], col="Red")
lines(post.payout.one[,7],post.payout.one[,8], col="Blue")
abline(v=payback.time.one)

plot(pre.hack.bitfloor[,7],pre.hack.bitfloor[,11], xaxt="n",
     xlab="Time",
     ylab="Cumulative Fees Generated (USD)",
     xlim=c(min(bitfloor[,7]),max(bitfloor[,7])),
     ylim=c(0,max(pre.hack.bitfloor[,11],pre.payout.one[,11],post.payout.one[,11])),
     type="l", lwd=3, col="Green",
     main=c("Bitfloor Cumulative Fee Revenue",
            "Before Hack Rate= 0.5%,   After Hack= 0.3%")
)
axis(1,at=as.numeric(as.matrix(month.labels[,1])),
     labels=as.character(month.labels[,2]))
lines(pre.payout.one[,7],pre.payout.one[,11],
      type="l", lwd=3, col="Red"
)
lines(post.payout.one[,7],post.payout.one[,11],
      type="l", lwd=3, col="Blue"
)
abline(v=payback.time.one)

barplot(c(
  Total.Value.Stolen,
  Total.Value.Payed
),
        ylab="USD", ylim=c(0,1.1*Total.Value.Stolen),
        names.arg=c(paste("Value Stolen=", Total.Value.Stolen),
                    paste("Value Payed=",Total.Value.Payed)),
        col=c("Red","Green"),
        main=paste("Estimated Payed Back=",100*est.payed.back,"%")
)

barplot(c(
  max(pre.payout.one[,11]),
  max(post.payout.one[,11])
),
        ylim=c(0,1.1*max(c(max(pre.payout.one[,11]),max(post.payout.one[,11])))),
        ylab="Fees Generated (USD)",
        names.arg=c(paste("Hack to First Payout=", round(max(pre.payout.one[,11]),1)),
                    paste("Since=",round(max(post.payout.one[,11]),1))),
        col=c("Red","Blue"),
        main=c("Fees Generated Since Hack",
               paste("Constant Buying:",round(sum(0.003*post.payout.one[,9]),1), "BTC"),
               paste("Buy Now:",round(max(post.payout.one[,11])/tail(post.payout.one[,8],1),1),"BTC")
        )
)
dev.off()




full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
March 20, 2013, 10:22:20 AM
I agree, a little more communication about the held coins would help put minds at ease. Even a simple web page with the payback strategy & payout history would help.

As far as I understand, the price of the coins is irrelevent as others have mentioned on previous posts. The important factor is volume.

It would take Bitfloor a volume of ~333.5 BTC to repurchase 1 BTC. Assuming Shtylman distributes 100% of the revenues, this gives a total traded volume of ~8.25 Million BTC to get back all 25K coins.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
March 20, 2013, 09:10:35 AM
The company has a debt denominated in BTC.  The hedge would be to hold any profits in BTC.  Having a debt in BTC and holding assets in USD isn't a hedge, it is a short position.   Imagine if hypothetically Bitcoin rose to $500 USD per BTC.  Suddenly the company would owe $15M USD worth of debt.  I had hoped that bitfloor would seek outside investors make a deal to fix the debt to USD offer something like a 33% haircut, 33% repaid upfront, and 33% repaid over next x years.  As it is holding USD and watching the BTC denominated debt skyrocket is just a stone around the neck of bitfloor.

Words of wisdom.

I hope shtylman reacts soon, because we seem to be shooting up to $100 and the situation is quickly becoming untenable.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 505
March 20, 2013, 09:01:10 AM
The company has a debt denominated in BTC.  The hedge would be to hold any profits in BTC.  Having a debt in BTC and holding assets in USD isn't a hedge, it is a short position.   Imagine if hypothetically Bitcoin rose to $500 USD per BTC.  Suddenly the company would owe $15M USD worth of debt.  I had hoped that bitfloor would seek outside investors make a deal to fix the debt to USD offer something like a 33% haircut, 33% repaid upfront, and 33% repaid over next x years.  As it is holding USD and watching the BTC denominated debt skyrocket is just a stone around the neck of bitfloor.

+1
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
March 19, 2013, 09:20:22 PM
The new FinCEN regs are going to put BitFloor out of business.  Adios, 12 BTC...

Oh?  What are the issues you see?
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
March 19, 2013, 08:56:14 PM
The company has a debt denominated in BTC.  The hedge would be to hold any profits in BTC.  Having a debt in BTC and holding assets in USD isn't a hedge, it is a short position.   Imagine if hypothetically Bitcoin rose to $500 USD per BTC.  Suddenly the company would owe $15M USD worth of debt.  I had hoped that bitfloor would seek outside investors make a deal to fix the debt to USD offer something like a 33% haircut, 33% repaid upfront, and 33% repaid over next x years.  As it is holding USD and watching the BTC denominated debt skyrocket is just a stone around the neck of bitfloor.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
March 19, 2013, 07:08:27 PM
Hopefully the recent BTC rally will earn Bitfloor enough volume to release some more of the held BTC..especially in today's market.

I spoke with Roman the other week and he pointed out that this actually has ups and downs. The rally has helped volume on bitfloor, but it's also raised the dollar cost of buying coin, which is exactly what bitfloor has to do each time he makes a payment. (fees are earned in dollars)

Fuck.  We'll never see them all if he holds fees in dollars and then converts when he pays out.

Everyone seems to be talking like bitcoins will never go down again. Sounds a bit like folks were talking about houses a few years back.. :-P

I guess on the bright side it's sorta like a hedge; if the price of bitcoins goes down, you get more of your bitfloor coins faster Smiley.

I would be willing to bet all my bitfloor coins that they will never again be as cheap as they were at the time of the hack.

I can't really complain about him playing it safe though.  I just don't think he'll ever be able to pay it all off unless he hedges at least some of it on the bitcoin side.  Yes, price can go down, but we are still very early in the price discovery phase.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 505
March 19, 2013, 06:56:51 PM
Will it? Bitfloor is already registered as an MSB:
http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/msbstateselector.html
(type 'bitfloor' into the legal name field)

Quote
The inclusion of a business on the MSB Registrant Search Web page is not a recommendation,
certification of legitimacy, or endorsement of the business by any government agency.

Your point?
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 1722
March 19, 2013, 06:52:55 PM
Will it? Bitfloor is already registered as an MSB:
http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/msbstateselector.html
(type 'bitfloor' into the legal name field)

Quote
The inclusion of a business on the MSB Registrant Search Web page is not a recommendation,
certification of legitimacy, or endorsement of the business by any government agency.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 505
March 19, 2013, 06:51:44 PM
Hopefully the recent BTC rally will earn Bitfloor enough volume to release some more of the held BTC..especially in today's market.

I spoke with Roman the other week and he pointed out that this actually has ups and downs. The rally has helped volume on bitfloor, but it's also raised the dollar cost of buying coin, which is exactly what bitfloor has to do each time he makes a payment. (fees are earned in dollars)

Fuck.  We'll never see them all if he holds fees in dollars and then converts when he pays out.

Everyone seems to be talking like bitcoins will never go down again. Sounds a bit like folks were talking about houses a few years back.. :-P

I guess on the bright side it's sorta like a hedge; if the price of bitcoins goes down, you get more of your bitfloor coins faster Smiley.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 505
March 19, 2013, 06:46:41 PM
The new FinCEN regs are going to put BitFloor out of business.  Adios, 12 BTC...

Will it? Bitfloor is already registered as an MSB:

http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/msbstateselector.html

(type 'bitfloor' into the legal name field)
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
March 19, 2013, 06:22:28 PM
Hopefully the recent BTC rally will earn Bitfloor enough volume to release some more of the held BTC..especially in today's market.

I spoke with Roman the other week and he pointed out that this actually has ups and downs. The rally has helped volume on bitfloor, but it's also raised the dollar cost of buying coin, which is exactly what bitfloor has to do each time he makes a payment. (fees are earned in dollars)

Fuck.  We'll never see them all if he holds fees in dollars and then converts when he pays out.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
March 19, 2013, 11:22:52 AM
The new FinCEN regs are going to put BitFloor out of business.  Adios, 12 BTC...
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