Please post IPO to BTCT. It just works... weexchange/bitfunder has been a consistent fail for me, i try every month or so, and i can't even get coins to my wallet. Cheers, keep up the good work. I've spoken with Hashfast and they are the real deal.
So say i grab a bunch at .0014 today... What date will there be any changes to valuation?
Topic: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (235 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast) - page 118. (Read 378647 times)
August 06, 2013, 06:45:07 PM
August 06, 2013, 06:24:16 PM
The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.
Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Hm, your right.Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
You may take it and plug in the numbers you think seem reasonable.
To make a estimate which you think seem likely.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra
Actually it looks like you're estimating profits as though you started hashing at next difficulty change. Which makes it all meaningless - and it can't be fixed just by editing a few cells : that would just give a different, totally implausible, set of results.
You've produced a platform that allows people to produce meaningless output. Which is worse than providing nothing - as it can make people believe (incorrectly) that they have some idea of what to expect and that YOU have some idea of what the liekly range of outcomes are.
Good job it's only a mining investment - where the operators make a profit whether or not investors do. In most other areas of business you'd have needed to produce some sort of functional projections to satisfy yourself it was worth doing - but when you get a chunk of revenue even if investors make a loss I guess that isn't needed.
As stated we do not speculate on what the potential ROI or profit of the mining farm will be nor do we say that we can make any accurate estimates.
Please do use other sources and calculators that exists to make your own estimates. Based on your own diligence and research make a decision, we do not advocate people to make decisions based on our spreadsheet alone.
The IPO model is profit sharing, you purchase a % of the profit of the company hence when the company makes money so does the investors. We decided to go this way because we think it is the most fair way for the investors. We are not renting hardware or selling mining bonds, we are offering a chance to invest in the mining operations profit directly and hence take part of both the risks and profits.
Thank you for your feedback!
//DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 06:11:53 PM
The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.
Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Hm, your right.Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
You may take it and plug in the numbers you think seem reasonable.
To make a estimate which you think seem likely.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra
Actually it looks like you're estimating profits as though you started hashing at next difficulty change. Which makes it all meaningless - and it can't be fixed just by editing a few cells : that would just give a different, totally implausible, set of results.
You've produced a platform that allows people to produce meaningless output. Which is worse than providing nothing - as it can make people believe (incorrectly) that they have some idea of what to expect and that YOU have some idea of what the liekly range of outcomes are.
Good job it's only a mining investment - where the operators make a profit whether or not investors do. In most other areas of business you'd have needed to produce some sort of functional projections to satisfy yourself it was worth doing - but when you get a chunk of revenue even if investors make a loss I guess that isn't needed.
August 06, 2013, 06:01:20 PM
Quote
You're the guy who brings BTC 2 SC! Nice to meet you here. 
A side-project of mine, yes. Skilled gaming and bitcoin are my passions, so deciding to combine the two made perfect sense. August 06, 2013, 05:57:18 PM
The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.
Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Hm, your right.Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
This will enable investors to project different scenarios to see what their potential ROI can be.
The model is in no way a tool to pre determine what profits an investor will make. it is simply a calculator for investors to play with.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 05:54:04 PM
The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.
Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.
Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty. 4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding. And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.
Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500. i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off. That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.
The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.
That's the worst-case. Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining. i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
August 06, 2013, 05:53:51 PM
I wish you really good luck DeaDTerra!
Thank you //DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 05:51:44 PM
Hi All. Just wanted to chime in here as I'll be assisting Ludvig with answering questions @ this post in the coming days.
Apologies for the Jr. Member status on my part. Though I've been a long-time member/lurker here, I'm much more active @ http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin. This is me: http://www.reddit.com/user/willem/
Apologies for the Jr. Member status on my part. Though I've been a long-time member/lurker here, I'm much more active @ http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin. This is me: http://www.reddit.com/user/willem/
You're the guy who brings BTC 2 SC! Nice to meet you here.
August 06, 2013, 05:51:10 PM
I wish you really good luck DeaDTerra!
August 06, 2013, 05:47:10 PM
Wow, 200BTC already in... this might go quick.
Just checking (for my understanding) as soon as those 14.5m are sold out, the next stage gets released at the price of 0.0015 (unless a change is stated)?
Yes Just checking (for my understanding) as soon as those 14.5m are sold out, the next stage gets released at the price of 0.0015 (unless a change is stated)?
That is correct!
//DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 05:43:26 PM
Wow, 200BTC already in... this might go quick.
Just checking (for my understanding) as soon as those 14.5m are sold out, the next stage gets released at the price of 0.0015 (unless a change is stated)?
Just checking (for my understanding) as soon as those 14.5m are sold out, the next stage gets released at the price of 0.0015 (unless a change is stated)?
August 06, 2013, 05:41:34 PM
At HashFast, we are excited to be working with Ice Drill and DigiMex. We are particularly pleased that their entry point is low enough for wide and diverse participation.
John Skrodenis
www.hashfast.com
John Skrodenis
www.hashfast.com
August 06, 2013, 05:39:50 PM
just got on the ship!
Welcome on board ^^//DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 05:39:30 PM
The first batch is now up.
14.5 million shares at 0.0014 BTC each
//DeaDTerra
14.5 million shares at 0.0014 BTC each
//DeaDTerra
I see 10k shares sold at 0.00161. LOL, wut?
//DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 05:39:00 PM
just got on the ship!
August 06, 2013, 05:36:26 PM
The first batch is now up.
14.5 million shares at 0.0014 BTC each
//DeaDTerra
14.5 million shares at 0.0014 BTC each
//DeaDTerra
I see 10k shares sold at 0.00161. LOL, wut?
August 06, 2013, 05:35:36 PM
Oh boy, another DeadTerra adventure in Bitcoin investment. Sign me up please.
Gamma turned out well after tons of glorious drama. I got my money back plus some, and have bragging rights for being an (indirect) ASICMINER OG.
Gamma turned out well after tons of glorious drama. I got my money back plus some, and have bragging rights for being an (indirect) ASICMINER OG.
August 06, 2013, 05:33:40 PM
Best of Luck.
August 06, 2013, 05:31:43 PM
The first batch is now up.
14.5 million shares at 0.0014 BTC each
//DeaDTerra
14.5 million shares at 0.0014 BTC each
//DeaDTerra
August 06, 2013, 05:16:55 PM
The third batch is of 12,000,000 (12 million) shares and will be sold at the price of 0.0016 BTC per share. These shares have to be sold by the 4th of November (00:00:00 UTC, 4 November 2013) for the IPO to be deemed a success. At the opening of the mine, this equates to a price of 0.16 BTC per Gh.s.
Is this price set in stone—i.e., why risk buying in August if the price cannot appreciate over 0.0016 before November 4th?
The issuer has the right to release more shares at any time and for any price (the 20,000,000 shares not sold at the IPO).
Does this clause apply only after 4th November?
The price can appreciate more in the case of where we manage to sell all the assets.
If you are afraid of the rest of the 20 Million shares being dumped that will not happen as if we can't raise the necessary amount, we will have to deem the IPO a failure and return the money to the investors. Hence it is in everyone's interest to sell enough of the batches to fund the project.
//DeaDTerra
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