Lol do you know the difference between announcing something and actually having it in production with excess capacity to sell to the asic makers (which is low volume, low yield market). Call me ignorant at will, it won't change the facts. We'll have 7nm in 2019 perhaps. But it won't be twice the hashrate for the same power draw. Might be +60% (which is still good). Until then you're stuck with D3 and D3+ which will draw approx the same amount of power per hashrate.
I think we seem to have a language barrier here. Samsung is "producing" 7nm chips today and intends to scale up that production aggressively in 2018. I understand that ASIC is not high on the distribution priority list as I've said several times here in my posts. My point in all this is.....people are paying completely ridiculous prices for these 16nm units that are 1.5 years into their Moore's Law lifecycle. The market is being slammed with massive quantities of Hashing power. These ignorant fools will take anywhere from 12-20 months to recoup their hardware costs. By then, BAM!! 7nm is either in the Bitmain mines and or about to be. Do you disagree that Bitmain mined 16nm Chips long before they sold them to us??? Yes, 7nm in 2019 for us regular people.....2018 for Bitmain's personal Goldmines. D3's for sale on every street corner for 1/2 their release price. Which is awesome. THAT'S when I'll buy them.
Ok, let me cut some of the quotes above for brevity.
I understand exactly the nuances of your words. Lets put this into perspective. There will always be new tech in 2-3 years time. Moore's law does not work the way it did 30 to 20 years ago. Today we have evolutionary steps vs revolutionary as it used to be.
By the time those D3 are 1/2 their price (say 700$) on the streets, say 2 years from now, they will have been beaten to death but paid back their first owners. If somebody has free electricity at that time and feel like risking to buy a 2 year old miner at 1/2 the price it's their choice and I won't argue with that.
My take is at that time, difficulty will be way higher and roi much longer (if any) to make it worth.
Now, when I talk about retail price, I mean the 2700 or 1500 $ from Bitmain direct. If you instead mean the 10K from Cryptocrane, then I'm with you all the way. They will never pay back.
