I'm new at bitcoin mining. I've been up and running and this is my 3rd week. Does anyone really hit the Aprrox mint speed that shows on the App? I find I get know where near that. If it says you are going to make .15 a day, shouldn't you get close in a 3 week period? Maybe that figure should be adjusted to more realistic value? Is that based on the last 500 blocks? I would like to see a more current value based on the last 20. What do you think?
The approximate mint speed is the average you will earn. It is calculated the same way that dozens of bitcoin mining calculators you will find around different websites.
Some payment info:
The approximate mint speed shown in BitMinter client is just that, an approximation. Bitcoin mining is like a lottery. How often we find a block, and earn bitcoins from that block, is random. Each hash you process is like a lottery ticket. Each hash has a (very low) chance of producing a block. You get paid with coins from a block whenever a block is found by someone mining in the pool. Your share of the income from a block is determined by the amount of work that you did in the most recent 10 shifts at the time the block is found.
Because of this, your daily income will vary with luck. That's often referred to as variance. There may also be some hours between two payouts if we are having bad luck and no blocks are found for a while.
In addition to that there is a delay from the time you do some work until that work is fully paid. The work you do is registered in a shift, and then that work is credited with income from new blocks we find until its shift is no longer among the 10 latest shifts. This takes a few hours. If you turn off the prepay perk then there is an additional delay having to wait for blocks to confirm, which takes about 20 hours.
So, assuming you have prepay on, if you do 24 hours of work and then look at the results, then only some of that work has been fully paid. The remaining work is still receiving pay, even if you stop mining. Needless to say that is not going to look very profitable, when you are looking at all the work you did but only part of the pay you are going to receive.
Comparing pools by how much you get paid for 24 hours of mining is pointless. The comparison becomes "which pool has the best luck today?" You can't use that data for anything. The luck a pool has today has no influence on its luck tomorrow. Believing that it does is called "gambler's fallacy" which you can ready about on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacyIf you want to know how BitMinter's payouts have been over time you can read Organofcorti's very detailed analysis here:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/05/131-bitminter-and-luck.html[/quote]
I understand what an estimate is, but is it right? Just because "It is calculated the same way that dozens of bitcoin mining calculators you will find around different websites." Doesn't really make it right and if it is truly random, then why estimate at all? Estimating a random act is saying is like guessing a die will role a 1 , 10 times in a minute. If you said in the last 1000 rolls, 100 where a 1, it is still random. THat it could be easily 200 the next 1000 rolls. So it doesn't really mean anything. So why say it at all? So finding a 1 block in 24hours, and 9 blocks in 24 hours is completely random, so saying someone can earn .15 a day, is completely random too.
