Topic: ▄■▀■▄ 🌟BITVEST.io🌟 💰WIN BY 🔶PLAY 📈INVEST➡🔺🎲🎰🔲 | BET CONTEST ▄■▀■▄ - page 200. (Read 201838 times)
February 12, 2017, 07:26:13 PM
Hmm, looking into it, it's not really x5 Kelly, its x5/(average for all investors). So if everyone else invests at x4, and you invest at x5, you've got 1.25 Kelly, do I understand it correctly?
February 12, 2017, 01:29:32 PM
Assuming probability of site cheating is zero, there are also non-zero probabilities of 1) an implementation bug 2) server hacking.
Bitcoin history shows ~10% of all servers with bitcoins on them are hacked ... so it's 50 times more probable that N2s has hacked the server than that he won it randomly
Bitcoin history shows ~10% of all servers with bitcoins on them are hacked ... so it's 50 times more probable that N2s has hacked the server than that he won it randomly
February 12, 2017, 01:18:51 PM
Probability to win 110 BTC in 625 bets of 1.7BTC each, with 1% house edge, is about 0.2%. Considering some bets were lower than 1.7BTC, this event is even more unprobable.
My calculations basically agree with yours. My math gives about a ~0.24% chance of such a streak making the assumption of 36 more wins than expected (~122.4 BTC above EV) / (3.4 BTC per win) over a period of 640 games.The majority of the action came from the large bets, so the smaller ones have a rather minimal impact on the overall odds. Factoring that in probably drops the odds of this streak down to ~0.2%.
Don't forget to keep in mind, he is still -30, and has had just over 26,000 BTC in action, the odds of seeing this streak as calculated above was during ~1088 BTC of action. This event is more likely around 6-7% over the span of his entire betting history.
Unlikely events happen all the time, something on the order of 100s:1 isn't terribly uncommon.
February 12, 2017, 01:17:41 PM
Come on guys, shit happens and someone wins big, get your tinfoil hats off.
If bitvest wants to fake losses, they would use lots of small accounts not a big one.
Got to have some trust to invest in their bankroll!
If bitvest wants to fake losses, they would use lots of small accounts not a big one.
Got to have some trust to invest in their bankroll!
February 12, 2017, 01:05:51 PM
Probability to win 110 BTC in 625 bets of 1.7BTC each, with 1% house edge, is about 0.2%. Considering some bets were lower than 1.7BTC, this event is even more unprobable.
February 12, 2017, 10:53:28 AM
N8snathan - all time betting profits
N8snathan - 2017 betting profits
N8snathan - Feb. 12, 2017 cumulative profits - Note: This chart starts at -142.48, his total profit at the start of today. The other charts start at 0 at their starting points.
N8snathan - 2017 betting profits
N8snathan - Feb. 12, 2017 cumulative profits - Note: This chart starts at -142.48, his total profit at the start of today. The other charts start at 0 at their starting points.
February 12, 2017, 10:37:58 AM
pray that N8s is not house itself .. you can never be sure
I don't think N8snathan is the house himself betting on his own site, I do know that N8snathan does play on other site too beside bitvest.io, he seems to like playing plinko on bitvest with his customize line, that line won him a few big wins in the past, investor just have to stay on with their investment because the house edge will surely catch up with N8snathan over the time.It is just a matter of time before the player lucks run out
February 12, 2017, 10:37:29 AM
Actual profit for investors still positive though - about 0.1% of total bet
Incredible low considering the time the site has been around, the volume bet and also the high house edge (dice is 1% but all other games are much higher).
Dice accounts for 75% of all bets
February 12, 2017, 10:30:03 AM
pray that N8s is not house itself .. you can never be sure
Now that is very serious accusation.n8 has very bad luck recently and he lost lots of bitcoins. So i would say he was very lucky, but still, i wonder(again) about his overall stats and profit, if he has any.
Well if you want to get all tin hat conspiracy theory like. Someone did pull out nearly 40 bitcoins in the bankroll just hours before N8 went to town, could that be the house?
The bankroll also saw over 50 Bitcoins reinvested after N8 went to town on the bankroll, could that be the house?
I took out the 40. I was going to take out my full investment but the site can take longer for large withdrawals so I left 60 in.
I then saw I was down 4btc in morning then lost a further ~9.5 when N8 started the very unlikely dice win.
I withdrew ~47 after that.
February 12, 2017, 10:27:33 AM
Actual profit for investors still positive though - about 0.1% of total bet
Incredible low considering the time the site has been around, the volume bet and also the high house edge (dice is 1% but all other games are much higher).
February 12, 2017, 10:21:41 AM
Actual profit for investors still positive though - about 0.1% of total bet
February 12, 2017, 10:06:13 AM
Please fill the hot wallet guys, it is empty at the moment.
February 12, 2017, 10:00:21 AM
Oh wow, logged in and my account has been punished by N8... Think I will spread my investments in this site to other ones that have been doing very well...
February 12, 2017, 09:54:37 AM
pray that N8s is not house itself .. you can never be sure
Now that is very serious accusation.n8 has very bad luck recently and he lost lots of bitcoins. So i would say he was very lucky, but still, i wonder(again) about his overall stats and profit, if he has any.
Well if you want to get all tin hat conspiracy theory like. Someone did pull out nearly 40 bitcoins in the bankroll just hours before N8 went to town, could that be the house?
In my opinion it is very very unlikely the accusation is true.
February 12, 2017, 09:54:18 AM
N8snathan is still down about 30 BTC overall (he was down well over 100 before today), I'll post a full profit/loss chart of his history later today.
The 50 BTC re-investment after N8's loss was an investor divesting then reinvesting 15 minutes later, long after the action had ended. You can see our charts for that.
As for the ~40 BTC divestment. That was just some lucky divestment timing by one of our larger investors. They're free to post here about it if they'd like, but for privacy reasons, I won't disclose who without their permission.
The 50 BTC re-investment after N8's loss was an investor divesting then reinvesting 15 minutes later, long after the action had ended. You can see our charts for that.
As for the ~40 BTC divestment. That was just some lucky divestment timing by one of our larger investors. They're free to post here about it if they'd like, but for privacy reasons, I won't disclose who without their permission.
ok thanks for the information. I am also not making accusations but it is the Bitcoin Gambling world after all...
February 12, 2017, 09:48:42 AM
Now that is very serious accusation.
Not an accusation, just disclosing one of the risk factors that investors must understand.
February 12, 2017, 09:48:24 AM
N8snathan is still down about 30 BTC overall (he was down well over 100 before today), I'll post a full profit/loss chart of his history later today.
The 50 BTC re-investment after N8's loss was an investor divesting then reinvesting 15 minutes later, long after the action had ended. You can see our charts for that.
As for the ~40 BTC divestment. That was just some lucky divestment timing by one of our larger investors. They're free to post here about it if they'd like, but for privacy reasons, I won't disclose who without their permission.
The 50 BTC re-investment after N8's loss was an investor divesting then reinvesting 15 minutes later, long after the action had ended. You can see our charts for that.
As for the ~40 BTC divestment. That was just some lucky divestment timing by one of our larger investors. They're free to post here about it if they'd like, but for privacy reasons, I won't disclose who without their permission.
February 12, 2017, 09:46:14 AM
There is nothing suspicious about divesting when you see a high roller. What IS suspicious is when somebody divests relatively high amount just few hours before the high roller appears. But it can be just coincidence.
February 12, 2017, 09:32:42 AM
pray that N8s is not house itself .. you can never be sure
Now that is very serious accusation.n8 has very bad luck recently and he lost lots of bitcoins. So i would say he was very lucky, but still, i wonder(again) about his overall stats and profit, if he has any.
Well if you want to get all tin hat conspiracy theory like. Someone did pull out nearly 40 bitcoins in the bankroll just hours before N8 went to town, could that be the house?
Who knows?
Also, it's not first time investors divested when they saw high roller.
February 12, 2017, 09:19:01 AM
pray that N8s is not house itself .. you can never be sure
Now that is very serious accusation.n8 has very bad luck recently and he lost lots of bitcoins. So i would say he was very lucky, but still, i wonder(again) about his overall stats and profit, if he has any.
Well if you want to get all tin hat conspiracy theory like. Someone did pull out nearly 40 bitcoins in the bankroll just hours before N8 went to town, could that be the house?
The bankroll also saw over 50 Bitcoins reinvested after N8 went to town on the bankroll, could that be the house?
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