Topic: Block Erupter USB owners won't make ROI??? - page 2. (Read 10212 times)

profitable if you get them in sept/oct

Curious, what are your outlooks on the Saturn & Jupiter?

you misunderstand.
the spreadsheet clearly shows.
you will not break even on the USB miner in the absolute most favorable conditions.
that's it. I mean, I can't make it anymore clear.

you paid 2.2btc for it and you will never earn back the 2.2btc mining from it, in fact, you'll most likely lose 1btc.
if you sell it back to someone else and pass the buck, yeah you make a profit. but then someone else becomes the schmuck.

the units are overpriced, ASICminer basically sold everybody a device that's unprofitable. Its only use is for novelty 'fun' factor. if that's your thing, so be it.
but don't ever think you will make that money back and it's not an 'investment'.

my advice, unplug it by july 14, 2014 or you'll start paying more for electricity, lol.

I used your calculator and one i made myself in excel using the 4% you initially quoted.  I don't think that it'll be profitable in the sense of i'll be retiring, but I was merely arguing that the units were not overpriced for what they are because of the fact that you get a lot of the initial cost back.  Plus the value of these things hasn't gone down a lot, so if someone were to have bought 100 of them, mined for a month, and then sold them after that, they would have already made their money back.  But once again, that's not what these were designed for.  They are being wold at retail rates because they are for those of us who don't look to run farms.  And I already made a bet--I bought 2 of the sticks!!

http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

300 MH/s, 2 BTC, 3W, 2% pool fee, $0.15 kWh
1.3% increase per day

You will be at minus 1.429 BTC after 12 months of mining. After that, earnings and the residual value of the device will be negligible.

which calculator did you use?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

here i even put in the values for you and gave you -300k difficulty, and i negated 2% of the pool fee cost.

you will, never, make, any, profit, from, the, usb. the end. there is no discussion.

the most absolute wet dream inducing scenario and it still won't make any profit.

put in an AVERAGE difficulty rating of 9% and you'll see how futile it is. hell, increase it by 1%.

if it's fun, go ahead, i'm not arguing that it's not fun. i'm arguing that it's not PROFITABLE.

hey, if you still think you can, make a bet with me. any amount of BTC i will match and we both send it in escrow and wait a year for a clearer picture.

lol, at a moderate 15% increase. 1watt will cost you more then the usb makes by Oct 2014.

Ok, your chart says basically the same as mine does.  At 4% difficulty, I'll break even around October of 2014 for the stick I have at home and September of 2014 for the stick at work.  (Like I said, electricity is negligible, only about 2 weeks difference in the long run.)

There are a couple of points to be addressed here.

1) the people buying these things are a different audience than the people investing and buying BTC straight up.  The risk of BTC crashing and going away is hedged by the fact that BTC may rise in the future.  But the BTC enthusiasts are people like me who do it in their free time and don't really want to plop down any serious cash.  My pension fund is doing just fine, and I have no need to invest into BTC at this time.  If you go onto some of the irc's of the pools, we've had this discussion time and time again.  Most of us in there are there to have some fun and as a hobby, not there to make tons and tons of money.

2) let's go ahead and assume that pool fees are negligible, and so is electricity (at 2-3 W's the total watt hours for the year come in at what, around 1 kWh?)  Don't quote me on this math but the point is it's negligible.

Here's the table I get with the assumption that it takes about 2 weeks to find a block and your 4% assumption.  This also assumes the price of BTC does not change.

prd   Percentage            US$/wk           USD/period 1   1                    14                  28 2   0.96                    13.44           26.88 3   0.9216            12.9024           25.8048 4   0.884736            12.386304           24.772608 5   0.84934656            11.89085184   23.78170368 6   0.815372698   11.41521777   22.83043553 7   0.78275779           10.95860906   21.91721811 8   0.751447478   10.52026469   21.04052939 9   0.721389579   10.09945411   20.19890821 10   0.692533996   9.695475942   19.39095188 11   0.664832636   9.307656904   18.61531381 12   0.638239331   8.935350628   17.87070126 13   0.612709757   8.577936603   17.15587321 14   0.588201367   8.234819139   16.46963828 15   0.564673312   7.905426373   15.81085275 16   0.54208638           7.589209318   15.17841864 17   0.520402925   7.285640945   14.57128189 18   0.499586808   6.994215308   13.98843062 19   0.479603335   6.714446695   13.42889339 20   0.460419202   6.445868827   12.89173765 21   0.442002434   6.188034074   12.37606815 22   0.424322337   5.940512711   11.88102542 23   0.407349443   5.702892203   11.40578441 24   0.391055465   5.474776515   10.94955303 25   0.375413247   5.255785454   10.51157091 26   0.360396717   5.045554036   10.09110807    sum      457.8134063

will i break even in a year? no, but each miner will only cost me $25 a piece at that point.  In reality, I think each will cost me somewhere between 50-100 as I said before, but hers the math now to prove it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

here, pop in the info, put it at 4% difficulty increase every 11days, which is exceptionally favorable for miners. negate electricity. -2% for pool fee.

I will bet you as much BTC in escrow as you want.

put in a reasonable increase @ 9% difficulty every 11days and look what ASICminer sold you.

this isn't about taking a risk, this isn't a risk, this is just madness arguing against the basic math.

Isn't there a website where people can bet on things with bitcoin?  Is there a bet on whether these will make ROI?  I'd love you to put your money where your mouth is.  Seeing everyone else has but you.  We're all buying these with optimistic hopes while all you do is talk smack.  What risks have you taken lately?

don't bother with the math portion. you won't make any profit on that usb miner, I can guarantee it.
also, if it's fun for you. okay I can't argue against fun.

You're missing the point.  No one is buying these things to make a farm out of them (if you are, then I agree with you, you're an idiot).  They are being sold at "retail rates" because of the fact that these are for the small guys who are enthusiasts.  I mine on my GPU when I'm not gaming, but I have no interest in investing in bitcoin for myself with these things.  I already own a GPU for gaming, so when it's not otherwise busy, it mines.  I keep one at work on my desk and one at home on my desk for decoration.  The wattage they draw is minimal, about 2 W, maybe 3W at the most so it doesn't cost anything (and at work it really don't cost anything!).

Look at this analogy.  You want to dig a hole in your backyard, so you go buy a shovel. But people who want to build a skyscraper and need to move dirt don't just go buy 50,000 shovels!  The money to diggage ratio is terrible!  They go out and buy a few backhoes and bulldozers where the money to diggage ratio is much better.  But if you only want to dig a hole in your backyard, why go buy a bulldozer?  Sure you could dig quicker, but you just want a small hole to play in!

It's the same here.  I don't want to spend 50k on machines that hash a TH's, i'm just an enthusiast, and I'm willing to fork over a few hundred to have some fun and make some (albeit small amounts) of money.  My GPU has paid for itself already, and with some of the extra cash, why not get a cute little device that looks cool sitting on my desk and makes me a bit of money?  Will I make $50 a year?  Maybe, maybe not (i'll address the next post in another post since it has some math in it), but even if all it makes if $50 of profit, that's still a few lattes!

read the post above you.
you will *never* get your money back even in the most favorable difficulty settings.

you got ripped off, straight up.

They were a bit expensive, but once again, some of the value comes from the fact that it makes some of that value back.  It's a cute little thing to have, and I'd gladly pay about $50 - $100 for it.  But since it also makes money, I'm willing to pay $250 because I know that I'm going to get $100 back within a couple of months, and the other $50-100 I might get back by the time a year rolls around.

here's some math for you.
even if i minus the cost of electricity and fee's from pools.
and even if there is only a 4% increase every 11days from now till nov 2014.

you will never make back the 2btc you invested in it.

ever.

oh? what if BTC rises? you'll make back the USD investment you put in?
well, if you had just plopped down the USD into straight up BTC, you'd still make more profit then buying that usb miner.

god, they must've made such a killing pushing out that crap.

No wonder ASICMiner is doing so well.  There's so many idiots hanging around in this forum.

Good luck with your 21% annual return, hope you make enough and retire happily for the rest of your life.

I agree.  Making it back in 300 days is actually a great return on investment in todays environment.  Assuming you paid 2.2 BTC for one:

Conservatively that's 0.0073 BTC per day

Over the other 65 days of the year, you'd make an extra 0.4745 BTC.

That's actually a ~21.5% annual return on investment.  Pretty damn good!  Considering most high yield stocks are around 5%.  And t-a-x free (<--don't want to spell it out for the search bots.)  Sh*t, I might buy more!!  DANG!!

It is possible that they will never make a return (if the hash and exchange rates reach the point that the USB miners burn more electricity than they generate in BTC).
They would be useful for distributing the hash rate and making the network more secure if they were priced lower. As it is, they are only a novelty item.
They could be a benefit to Bitcoin itself, which is why I don't think it is cool that they are priced in such a way as to make them a niche product.

Because most people around here see investments more like VC's do.. If they're not making oodles of money, it's not worth it!

I don't see the big deal here if you are long on Bitcoin. I've been mining for three years, and I hope to be mining for the next three years and beyond.

All this talk of not making ROI in 3-6 months seems a bit short-sighted IMO.