Does probability theory have anything to say about the likelihood that that this story is true?
For example, assume that the article is not a hoax, and that the hard facts presented within are true.
Now, either the creator(s) of BTC chose a random pseudonym for which a real world candidate not only exists, but matches so many other criteria:
Given: Actually has the name Satoshi Nakamoto (1/millions)
Necessary to create BTC:
AND speaks decent English (1/15 people)
AND is in the right age cohort (~1/5)
AND has the required intelligence to create bitcoin (1/50 AT LEAST)
AND has the required education (a further 1/30? etc)
AND right motive/ ideology
AND window of time, combined with lack of counter-evidence.
OR
This guy is the creator of BTC.
Something like that.
My question is this: can the article be analyzed in a quantifiable, probabilistic way, assuming the facts are true?
As for why he'd use his real name as a forum ID, well, at the earliest stages, could the inventor think it with both be so huge AND that his identity would need to be fully hidden?
Human error/ laps in judgement are huge. Source:
[email protected]But is there something concrete that can be educed form the structure of the knowledge/ facts in the article (assuming the FACTS in the article are true)
