Topic: Brexit: the beginning of the end? (Read 2551 times)

               
          One thing  is for sure here, indeed if there has to be any war in Europe today we all know that the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 is very much better and protected that’s why pulling out from the brexit was a huge loss for EU yet no matter what if anything should happen to United Kingdom 🇬🇧 today there are some nations still in the EU that will never stop supporting United Kingdom 🇬🇧.
        The United state of America 🇺🇸 has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they are United Kingdom’s closest tie and will not for any reason break that bond. I don’t see any problem with the fact the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 Decided to leave, there must some other countries in the EU that would have loved to leave too but ain’t bold enough to come up with it.

Yeah everybody wants to hold the power, but if we look down to individual people we see that most of them don't care about politics. For most elections I see participation rates of 50-60% which is not a lot. Voters either don't have favourite party they would vote for or they just don't care. To me it looks like more the local politicians want to have more power and look more important. However having countries with less than 100 million people trying to be important is not working out anymore. That is why the future is with countries like China or India.

Up to now, the EU is still kicking the can down the road. And this is a relief.

Brexit happened and things kept going. Of course, losing the United Kingdom was a major blow to the EU.

The EU also survived the 4 years of Trump divisionist policy.

It was also able to deal with Covid and its major economic consequences. Up to now.

But the debt increased more and more. The only thing making the all structure running and interests rates low is the European Central Bank buying public debts like crazy or the PIIGS would again have major financial crisis on their hands.

For how long will the European Central Bank save everything? The economic consequences of Covid aren't over, on the contrary.

And the Europeans keep getting older and older: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/demographics-of-europe/

I wonder how bad 2020 was in demographic terms?
https://dteurope.com/population/2020-the-worst-ever-demographic-year-in-hungary/

Old people will leave all the public debt to be paid by whom, if there are no kids?

Italy has been, still is and will be the elephant in the room.

Its public debt is about 2.3 trillion (132% of its GDP).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-new-threat-to-the-euro-1527539789

It's not about the Italian decision to leave the euro. Not even the new euroskeptical italian government will have the courage to decide that.

It's about starting spending a lot more, losing the faith of the lending market, starting paying much more in interest (so, spending even more for borrowing money to pay the current debt) and ending up losing access to the lending market because of rates above 8%.

Well, if Italy loses access to the lending market, there won't be enough money on the European Financial Stability Facility (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Financial_Stability_Facility) to bail out the italian government. It's 780 billion won't be enough.

If this happens, Italy will make the biggest default on humankind history and, probably, will be forced out of the euro.

Moreover, before this happening, the other PIIGS (all hugely indebted) would be under heavy financial stress and would also lose access to the lending market...

And all hell would break lose...

Another stress factor will be the oil price, because it's already pushing inflation up.

If the oil price keeps going up and inflation goes above 2%, the European Central Bank will be under heavy pressure to stop it's current quantitative easing police (the ECB is still buying european debt bonds on the market, pressuring their interests rates down and, so, helping the european governments paying artificial low interest rates) and to start elevating its interest rates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank#Bond_purchase

This will add to Italy and other PIIGS financial troubles...

We are in the era of divide and rule. Guess who gets divided, guess who wants to rule.

It was just a possible scenario, but the German army presented a report outlining several outcomes for 2040, including the break-up of the EU:

http://www.newsweek.com/eu-collapse-2040-germany-army-703624

And why do you think that voting for him was not a protest? People have not changed their opinion. An example might be a vote in the United States for Trump. The French do not know what to expect from the Macron, but they know I don't want to see the power of Marie Le Pen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

This was a relief, but more than 1/3 of the french voted against EU by voting on Le Pen.

Actually, on the first round, about 43% voted on candidates arguing that France should leave the EU: Le Pen (21.3%), Melenchon (19.58%) and a few more on small candidates.

If about 2.3% of the french citizens (Macron had about more 1.5 million votes than Melenchon) changed his vote from Macron on the first round to Melenchon, he and Le Pen both would pass to the second round and France would probably leave the UE with catastrophic results.

Therefore, 2.3% of the french decided this outcome.

2.3% can change their opinions so quickly...

Not much sure about Le Pen in France. She has constantly failed to cross the 30% barrier, and the issue is that the mainstream parties would unite to defeat her, forgetting the differences which exist among them.

The so called simple people know that simply they are getting robbed by the EU..

The world is under threat by spreading our lands with backward MUSLIMS..

Also we are NOT PAYING your 50 billion NOT 1 PENCE..
No one pays a penalty when they leave the EU.

Also if we pay the 50 billion does that mean we own the EU.Like an ASSET?
so we should expect profits or we can sell our shares in the EU?..

NOT 1 FUCKING THING AS A REMOANER GOT RIGHT..

Why should i pay someone to sell something to someone else ..MAFIA SHIT ..TRIBUNE

TO THE EU FUCK YOU ..You are not getting 1 pence..
Come on BE FUNNY YOU TWATS..I FUCKING HATE YOU ALL..FUCKING LEECHES..

Go and get a proper job like i have on a building site..You wouldn't last 5mins..ARR TO HARD FOR YOU

EU UN ELECTED POLITICAL BUMS..USING MY TAXES TO PAY FOR YOUR LIVES FUCK OFF..

WE WILL MAKE THE UK GREAT AGAIN..

We have many many trading partners who want no tariffs free trade ..

The EU is dead..Also the amount of people from London who are crying over BREXIT ..

LONDON AS FUCKED OVER..Every city and town from wales Ireland Scotland and the north of ENLAND
to the midlands ..

YOU ARE FUCKING SCUM BAGS ..GREEDY TWATS.
Now you can act like a part of the uk or you can act like a different country but ether way we are out of the
EU..

London as sucked all the money up from our towns and cities we have had enough..
Spread the wealth around ..

Big contract from government LONDON GETS IT  8 out of 10 times

Most police on beat LONDON GETS IT..
It's a wonder you ain't built a wall to protect all the fucking ARSE HOLE ELITE ..
Big wall around London ..

  LONDON BE LIKE ISRAEL .Big wall around it so the poor don't get in ..

Mind you if you ain't got 200 pounds not worth even going to london..
Cost that for a coffee .

So to LONDON YOU HAVE TOOK THE PISS FAR TOO LONG..
Time to spread the wealth..

If America wants to build something big REMEMBER London is not the only place in the UK ..

Then you got cheeky people from london who say we give our taxes to everyone ..

NO YOUR ROBBING ALL THE FUCKING CONTRACTS..So shut your mouths.

Head office always in london..So the head office means head pay..
So put a fucking head office somewhere else in the uk ..

Then that area will have head pay   spending head pay   in there local areas ..
So more money for there towns and cities..

London as been robbing all the work for hundreds of years  
because the lords have been close to the kings and queens down in london telling us all what to do..

THE PEOPLE RULE ..I was watching the LORDS over Brexit.. ..

Some of them lords think they own us..
They say that they have the sole power to choose in the end not the people ..

I am afraid old thinkers that was when we used to get robbed by the kings and queens of yesteryear

Like you know   riding through the village and robbing us and making us pay taxes or you will come back and kill us all..THOSE DAYS ARE OVER..OLD THINKERS..

DO WE NEED MIDDLEMEN TO DO BUSINESS?..We do have the INTERNET so why middlemen..

Well the EU is a MIDDLEMAN ..Useless now the internet is here..
WE DON'T NEED THE EU TO RUN OUR BUSINESS ANYMORE..

One click and many companies who will sell or buy in a flash..

To mrs may UKIP will win if you fail with BREXIT.

LABOUR IS A ISLAMIC PARTY

It is the end of the beginning, and now it's a new beginning of the end

All of the neighbors of Serbia are either EU members already, or are pushing for the membership. In such a scenario, it won't be good for the Serbs to opt out of the EU, by remaining as an enclave within the Union. The Western European nations such as Germany and Netherlands are facing acute shortage of manpower. If Serbia becomes a member, then it can be mutually beneficial for both the parties.

Now great changes are taking place in world politics. If you really in France do come to power Marie Le pen, the EU is indeed under threat. Also in Italy the government can Preeti, a former clown. The world is under threat. And the worst thing that contribute to this threat are simple people.

With Trump openly advocating the end of the EU (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-brexit-20170115-story.html: "Trump says Brexit is 'a great thing,' predicts EU will continue to break apart") and more or less still menacing NATO and the Pax Americana (http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-boot-trump-reorients-us-foreign-policy-20170122-story.html) there are even more reasons to be worried.

The 7th of May is the next critical date.

If Le Pen jr. wins the french presidencial second turn elections, the euro will crash like if there were no tomorrow and southern public debt's interest rates will skyrock, menacing the PIGS economic and political stability and their maintenance in the euro, including Italy.

Yes, it will be hard for her to win the french presidency (43% and growing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017#Opinion_polls_for_expected_second_round_of_voting). But I wrote the same about Trump.

Taking in account the 1932 German elections, Î thought, hell, even after the 1929 crises and the almost 30% unemployment, only 37.23% of the Germans were crazy enough to vote for the nazis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_July_1932).

I thought it's impossible that half of a people from a developed and educated country would vote for Trump.

Yes, shore.

If, after that, Le Pen manages to win a french referendum on the euro or/and a frexit from the EU (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/marine-le-pen-front-national-cameron-eu-referendum), all hell will break lose.

In Germany, the GDP per capita is $39,500.00 per capita, while in Serbia, that number is $11,100.00 per capita.

Why do you think there are so desperate to join the EU gravy train, are they going to be a net contributor?  Dont think so.

And I still don't understand why Serbias' president Aleksandar Vucic is still forcing and pushing towards EU.

The EU should have remained as a open trade agreement and nothing more.

As soon as the power crazed EU politicians pushed more and more towards a united states of Europe the more the people have rebelled.

The UK is the just the first of many to leave and I look forward to the end of the failed EU project.

I think my believes and hopes are stated clearly on the text.

I have hopes on the success of the European Union project.

I just can't see the political and economic conditions for that.

Italy owes 2,228,741 million USD, 132% of its GDP (http://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/italy) and, as was recalled on this thread, most of this debt in insured by credit default swaps and other derivatives.

And, like all European countries, its already losing active population, because of disastrous birth rates.

When debt doesn't stop growing, the GDP is more or less on a stagnated level for 15 years, active population is decreasing, there is a growing number of old people (with higher health and social security expenses)  and there is no inflation, of course this is going to explode. Soon or later.

Its banking crisis is only aggravating this.

When Italy had to pay on an auction 8% for borrow money for 10  years on 2009 or 2010, the Euro was on the brick of disaster.

It was a miracle that the euro system survived.

There won't be enough money to save Italy, if it loses access to the lending market.

The only think supporting this is the ECB and its quantitative easing policy and zero interest rates.

If inflation goes up to 2% because of oil prices or a dump of the euro (imported inflation, caused by the increase of imported foreign goods), the ECB will have to stop this quantitative easing policy.

So, Italy will need to give an hard haircut on their lenders, like Greece.

That will spread to other high indebted countries, like Spain.

Banks, which are the main lenders, will go bankrupt or will need more help...

The only way to help them would be to "print" money. But that can't be done on the euro system. Several countries might need to leave the euro.

Yes, Draghi will again try to save everything and, probably, he will be successful for some more time, but...

I have big hopes he could solve the problem, but I have my doubts.

Anyway, it wouldn't be the end of civilization as we know it. Far from that.

We still have a lot of scientific progress going on, we will handle this.

But it might end up the European project as a political union.

Apocalypse fetishists like to spell the end of everything but it's wishful thinking. The UE will transform into a viable entity. There are plans in place to make it happen. Adjustments will be made but it's a process that involves both regression and progress.

Not specifically related to Brexit, but current Leader of the Opposition just got a massive boost to his re-election campaign:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37009871

Suck it, Blairite scum!  For those who aren't familiar with the story, Labour's governing body ruled that there should be a cut-off point for newly registered members to be able to vote in the leadership contest and this has just been blown out of the water in court.

He was probably going to win even without this, but now it's Corbyn's victory on a platter.  Not a silver one, though, bit too posh.