Europeans fear Russia and themselves (mainly Germany) too much to live without the US to defend them.
I don't think the Europeans fear Russia, they invaded a few times. 
Topic: Brexit: the beginning of the end? - page 2. (Read 2551 times)
Thank you for a very interesting and comprehensive political analysis of Eu.
It's true that EU passing through the a major crisis, the biggest since the establishment of EU.
It's possible that EU will collapse but it's not sure thing.
Still main eU countries like Germany, Italy, France etc. didn't give up from EU.
EU candidates like Serbia, Montenegro, bosnia still didn't hive up from eU.
So, ideals of EU are still alive but EU need to redefine their economic and political goals in the future.
We still need Europe without borders, trade agreements, economic Co-operation and financial supports for weaker countries etc.
Euro is also very important project and symbol of EU.
I think and hope that EU will learn from this current crisis, overcome all problems and continue as long term project, for political and economic stability of the Europe.
It's true that EU passing through the a major crisis, the biggest since the establishment of EU.
It's possible that EU will collapse but it's not sure thing.
Still main eU countries like Germany, Italy, France etc. didn't give up from EU.
EU candidates like Serbia, Montenegro, bosnia still didn't hive up from eU.
So, ideals of EU are still alive but EU need to redefine their economic and political goals in the future.
We still need Europe without borders, trade agreements, economic Co-operation and financial supports for weaker countries etc.
Euro is also very important project and symbol of EU.
I think and hope that EU will learn from this current crisis, overcome all problems and continue as long term project, for political and economic stability of the Europe.
Europeans fear Russia and themselves (mainly Germany) too much to live without the US to defend them.
Actually, the story of the XX century is the story of the Europeans whining for help from the US on all major situations.
Now that the Europeans got that, they won't let go.
Actually, the story of the XX century is the story of the Europeans whining for help from the US on all major situations.
Now that the Europeans got that, they won't let go.
As the European Union is now it is irrelevant as a real instrument of peace.
The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.
The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.
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but we don’t want to lose you.
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page,
but we don’t want to lose you.
Your link doesnt work, but i know that issue from other newspapers.
Tbh imho this doesnt actually have to be bad for Europe or rather the EU, because in my eyes it is time for the EU to stand up as a counter force to the USA, Russia and China.
As long as the EU moves under the wing of the USA i dont see much chances for that.
It's time for the people of the EU to stand up as a counter force against the EU... just as it is time for the people of every major government to stand up as a counter force against their government.
As the European Union is now it is irrelevant as a real instrument of peace.
The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.
The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.
Quote
Page Not Found
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page,
but we don’t want to lose you.
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page,
but we don’t want to lose you.
Your link doesnt work, but i know that issue from other newspapers.
Tbh imho this doesnt actually have to be bad for Europe or rather the EU, because in my eyes it is time for the EU to stand up as a counter force to the USA, Russia and China.
As long as the EU moves under the wing of the USA i dont see much chances for that.
As the European Union is now it is irrelevant as a real instrument of peace.
The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.
The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.
They have so many bases or similar military installations on Germany (56!) that this country can be considered as still under American "occupation" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Army_installations_in_Germany).
But if someone like Trump won the American presidency, the pax americana could be in risk (http://www.newsweek.com/trump-isolationism-alarm-nationalism-liberalism-allies-realism-445630; http://www.newsweek.com/trump-will-withdraw-nato-world-455272).
But if someone like Trump won the American presidency, the pax americana could be in risk (http://www.newsweek.com/trump-isolationism-alarm-nationalism-liberalism-allies-realism-445630; http://www.newsweek.com/trump-will-withdraw-nato-world-455272).
There are few US soldiers left in Germany. I'd say there's only one tenth of what there were a generation ago. Regarding Trump, he surprised everybody by saying that because that would just destroy NATO. NATO is meaningless if it's only between countries on the same side of the Atlantic. I doubt he would do that, because that would Russia too happy.
It's seems now that the European Union won't have political will or conditions to develop into a Federal Union.
The European Union might not be as important to peace as some people thinks, at least with the current structure. But if it could be converted into a federal state, the issues of State debt would be overcome and it would be a serious guarantee of peace.
But it seems the opportunity was lost on 2005 and there won't be another one.[/b]
The European Union might not be as important to peace as some people thinks, at least with the current structure. But if it could be converted into a federal state, the issues of State debt would be overcome and it would be a serious guarantee of peace.
But it seems the opportunity was lost on 2005 and there won't be another one.[/b]
Nobody, or very few people support the idea of a federal Europe. Some people here see Europe as socialist, but most Europeans see it as capitalist, putting in place free market policies which destroy jobs by closing factories with inefficient workers or management.
The one that real keeps world peace (let's forget about the regional wars that they also create) is the United States and their pax americana.
From my point of view, that description is not entirely accurate.
Yes, I suspect it will be Italy who will collapse the euro system.
The Italians are sitting on an Everest of debt.
There is no money on the European rescue system to finance Italy if they lose the access to the bond market. Its creditors will burn like a supernova.
We'll see how many years more they can keep kicking the can down the road, thanks to the ECB.
If I recall well, on 2009, on the middle of the crisis, they paid once 8% for a 10 years bond. Things were real near collapse.
Many people has been waiting for the Japanese debt to blow out (with a demographic catastrophe on their hands, even worst than the European), I wonder for how long they will keep it going.
Of course, the Japanese central bank has been buying it at even bigger rates than the ECB. Until inflation starts, no problem...
It's like someone falling from a building. At the middle of the fall, someone asks him from a window: how are you? He shouts: so far, no problem.
The Zimbabwean central bank did the same. We all know the results.
But only inflation (or a huge haircut) can solve this mess, by destroying the value of the debt. I only hope it won't be a Zimbabwean type of inflation.
The Italians are sitting on an Everest of debt.
There is no money on the European rescue system to finance Italy if they lose the access to the bond market. Its creditors will burn like a supernova.
We'll see how many years more they can keep kicking the can down the road, thanks to the ECB.
If I recall well, on 2009, on the middle of the crisis, they paid once 8% for a 10 years bond. Things were real near collapse.
Many people has been waiting for the Japanese debt to blow out (with a demographic catastrophe on their hands, even worst than the European), I wonder for how long they will keep it going.
Of course, the Japanese central bank has been buying it at even bigger rates than the ECB. Until inflation starts, no problem...
It's like someone falling from a building. At the middle of the fall, someone asks him from a window: how are you? He shouts: so far, no problem.
The Zimbabwean central bank did the same. We all know the results.
But only inflation (or a huge haircut) can solve this mess, by destroying the value of the debt. I only hope it won't be a Zimbabwean type of inflation.
Brexit and the Derivatives Time Bomb
Read more at http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/brexit_and_the_derivatives_time_bomb_20160706.
This piece first appeared at Web of Debt.
Sovereign debt – the debt of national governments – has ballooned from $80 trillion to $100 trillion just since 2008. Squeezed governments have been driven to radical austerity measures, privatizing public assets, slashing public services, and downsizing work forces in a futile attempt to balance national budgets. But the debt overhang just continues to grow.
Austerity has been pushed to the limit and hasn't worked. But default or renegotiating the debt seems to be off the table. Why? According to a June 25th article by Graham Summers on ZeroHedge:
. . . EVERY move the Central Banks have made post-2009 has been aimed at avoiding debt restructuring or defaults in the bond markets. Why does Greece, a country that represents less than 2% of EU GDP, continue to receive bailouts instead of just defaulting?
Summers' answer – derivatives:
[G]lobal leverage has exploded to record highs, with the sovereign bond bubble now a staggering $100 trillion in size. To top it off, over $10 trillion of this is sporting negative yields in nominal terms. . . .
Globally, over $500 trillion in derivatives trade [is] based on bond yields.
But Brexit changes everything, says Summers. Until now, the EU has been able to reject debt forgiveness as an alternative, using the threat of financial Armageddon if the debtor country left the EU. But Britain has left, and Armageddon hasn't hit. Other Eurozone nations can now threaten to do the same if they don't get debt forgiveness or a restructuring.
That has evidently started happening, with Italy as the first challenger of EU rules. On June 27th, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported in the UK Telegraph that the first serious casualty of the Brexit contagion had struck. The Italian government is preparing a €40 billion rescue of its financial system, as Italian bank shares collapse. The government is now studying a direct state recapitalization of Italian banks, to be funded by a special bond issue. They also want a moratorium of the bail-in rules and bondholder write-downs, although those steps are prohibited under EU laws.
According to a June 28th editorial on ZeroHedge titled "The First Casualty of Brexit":
The likely outcome is that Italy's [prime minister] Renzi will be "forced" to take matters into his own hands and enact a unilateral sovereign rescue of the Italian banking system in defiance of the EU, unless he wins concessions soon from Brussels. Those who know him say he will not go down in flames for the sake of European ideological purity.
As a result, Brexit will be just the scapegoat used by Renzi and Italy to circumvent any specific eurozone prohibitions. And if it fails, all Renzi has to do is hint at a referendum of his own. Then watch as Merkel scrambles to allow Italy to do whatever it wants, just to avoid the humiliation of a potential "Italeave."
Sovereign debt – the debt of national governments – has ballooned from $80 trillion to $100 trillion just since 2008. Squeezed governments have been driven to radical austerity measures, privatizing public assets, slashing public services, and downsizing work forces in a futile attempt to balance national budgets. But the debt overhang just continues to grow.
Austerity has been pushed to the limit and hasn't worked. But default or renegotiating the debt seems to be off the table. Why? According to a June 25th article by Graham Summers on ZeroHedge:
. . . EVERY move the Central Banks have made post-2009 has been aimed at avoiding debt restructuring or defaults in the bond markets. Why does Greece, a country that represents less than 2% of EU GDP, continue to receive bailouts instead of just defaulting?
Summers' answer – derivatives:
[G]lobal leverage has exploded to record highs, with the sovereign bond bubble now a staggering $100 trillion in size. To top it off, over $10 trillion of this is sporting negative yields in nominal terms. . . .
Globally, over $500 trillion in derivatives trade [is] based on bond yields.
But Brexit changes everything, says Summers. Until now, the EU has been able to reject debt forgiveness as an alternative, using the threat of financial Armageddon if the debtor country left the EU. But Britain has left, and Armageddon hasn't hit. Other Eurozone nations can now threaten to do the same if they don't get debt forgiveness or a restructuring.
The First Domino – Italy
That has evidently started happening, with Italy as the first challenger of EU rules. On June 27th, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported in the UK Telegraph that the first serious casualty of the Brexit contagion had struck. The Italian government is preparing a €40 billion rescue of its financial system, as Italian bank shares collapse. The government is now studying a direct state recapitalization of Italian banks, to be funded by a special bond issue. They also want a moratorium of the bail-in rules and bondholder write-downs, although those steps are prohibited under EU laws.
According to a June 28th editorial on ZeroHedge titled "The First Casualty of Brexit":
The likely outcome is that Italy's [prime minister] Renzi will be "forced" to take matters into his own hands and enact a unilateral sovereign rescue of the Italian banking system in defiance of the EU, unless he wins concessions soon from Brussels. Those who know him say he will not go down in flames for the sake of European ideological purity.
As a result, Brexit will be just the scapegoat used by Renzi and Italy to circumvent any specific eurozone prohibitions. And if it fails, all Renzi has to do is hint at a referendum of his own. Then watch as Merkel scrambles to allow Italy to do whatever it wants, just to avoid the humiliation of a potential "Italeave."
Read more at http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/brexit_and_the_derivatives_time_bomb_20160706.
Even if some of the votes (let's admit 10%) were fake, that wouldn't affect the global numbers: 4,116,635 signatures (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215)
Kerry already said he doesn't believe the Brexit will happen (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/29/john-kerry-brexit-could-be-walked-back-david-cameron). If the US don't believe on it...
Others are saying the same:
Of course, they will need a second referendum, they couldn't ignore the first without a second (http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/britain-stays-eu-brexit/).
But I'm not saying nothing. The British will decide.
As is clear from the OP, I believe the EU to be important for Europe. I even believe that it should develop into a federal union.
However, proposals like the ones of EU Parliament President (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/686177/EU-superstate-Brussels-bureaucrat-European-federal-government-Brexit), currently, have no chance to be adopted.
I think the probabilities for the end of the euro and a major crisis on the European Union are higher.
If this crisis is going to happen, unfortunately, I have to write that the British are better off. They are paying a high price today, but averting paying a higher price tomorrow.
Of course, I still hope the Brexit and the crisis won't happen and that slowly the EU might develop into a federal union.
Kerry already said he doesn't believe the Brexit will happen (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/29/john-kerry-brexit-could-be-walked-back-david-cameron). If the US don't believe on it...
Others are saying the same:
Of course, they will need a second referendum, they couldn't ignore the first without a second (http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/britain-stays-eu-brexit/).
But I'm not saying nothing. The British will decide.
As is clear from the OP, I believe the EU to be important for Europe. I even believe that it should develop into a federal union.
However, proposals like the ones of EU Parliament President (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/686177/EU-superstate-Brussels-bureaucrat-European-federal-government-Brexit), currently, have no chance to be adopted.
I think the probabilities for the end of the euro and a major crisis on the European Union are higher.
If this crisis is going to happen, unfortunately, I have to write that the British are better off. They are paying a high price today, but averting paying a higher price tomorrow.
Of course, I still hope the Brexit and the crisis won't happen and that slowly the EU might develop into a federal union.
It's starting to look good for the UK. If there is a second referendum, then leave could end up with a bigger majority, and tht would screw the party that called it.
The big question now, is what hppens to UK interest rates, and the banking crisis. shares are down 25%
The big question now, is what hppens to UK interest rates, and the banking crisis. shares are down 25%
there isnt going to be another vote. Remain were caught faking the petition signatures!!! Though i agree if they had another vote im pretty sure the results would be even more in leaves favour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407
Brexit is a win against the International Zionism.
As well asA win against the Globalists , Banksters , Liberal Socialists , The New World Order
It can not be over stated enough the populist victory of Brexit ia a sign that finally the sheeple are waking up and rising against their masters. there may just be hope left for this world yet!!!???
It's starting to look good for the UK. If there is a second referendum, then leave could end up with a bigger majority, and tht would screw the party that called it.
The big question now, is what hppens to UK interest rates, and the banking crisis. shares are down 25%
The big question now, is what hppens to UK interest rates, and the banking crisis. shares are down 25%
The petition to remove effect to the referendum already has 3,743,751 signatures (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215).
A change on the pools about the outcome and another deal with the EU could create the conditions for another referendum.
But even taking in account how much is at stake, including UK's unity, (at least) the short-term conditions of its economy, its role on Europe and EU future (and also Cameron's future), it won't be easy to happen. A popular decision is a popular decision.
A change on the pools about the outcome and another deal with the EU could create the conditions for another referendum.
But even taking in account how much is at stake, including UK's unity, (at least) the short-term conditions of its economy, its role on Europe and EU future (and also Cameron's future), it won't be easy to happen. A popular decision is a popular decision.
I think that this referendum had many protest votes.
People voted for option: ''leave'' because of some other reasons, like dissatisfaction with politicians, or generally with the situation in society, no jobs, crimes etc.
Most of them didn't really want that UK leave EU and now they are all in panic and want new referendum.
Unfortunately, as I heard, it's very complicate and difficult legal process to start new referendum and already Cameroon said that there will be no new referendum.
Also, it seems EU is not willing to wait to long for UK to leave.
The petition to remove effect to the referendum already has 3,743,751 signatures (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215).
A change on the pools about the outcome and another deal with the EU could create the conditions for another referendum.
But even taking in account how much is at stake, including UK's unity, (at least) the short-term conditions of its economy, its role on Europe and EU future (and also Cameron's future), it won't be easy to happen. A popular decision is a popular decision.
A change on the pools about the outcome and another deal with the EU could create the conditions for another referendum.
But even taking in account how much is at stake, including UK's unity, (at least) the short-term conditions of its economy, its role on Europe and EU future (and also Cameron's future), it won't be easy to happen. A popular decision is a popular decision.
Brexit is a fresh start of a new beginning.
The UK has no intention of terminating the employment of any person working here legally. We need them to do the jobs that the idle unemployed remainers refuse to do. 
Here is the solution: Allow only those Eastern Europeans who are ready to work. People who tend to over-exploit the welfare system must be deported back to their own countries. Also, unemployment benefits for EU citizens must be limited to 3 months. If they can't find a job after three months, then they should go back to Poland and Lithuania.
I again suggest that the UK distribute all welfare bennies to able bodied recipients from the Glasgow office, in person, and on a weekly basis. Free public transportation would be arranged (one way.)
Hopefully the EU would last long enough for the Scots with the generous humanitarian nature to break away from England and join it in a new referendum.
Able bodied UK residents who need a job could be put to work on the wall. As we say here in the U.S., 'Good fences make good neighbors.'
The UK has no intention of terminating the employment of any person working here legally. We need them to do the jobs that the idle unemployed remainers refuse to do.
Here is the solution: Allow only those Eastern Europeans who are ready to work. People who tend to over-exploit the welfare system must be deported back to their own countries. Also, unemployment benefits for EU citizens must be limited to 3 months. If they can't find a job after three months, then they should go back to Poland and Lithuania.
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